Prohm in Close Games

[AuH2O]

my memory isn't great, but didn't we have a similar problem to the Baylor/K-State games during Niang's freshman year, or maybe the Kane year? I seem to remember a Tech game that we completely blew the end of the game, and there was much consternation about getting a quality shot and who should take it, and then they figured it out.

This reminds me of that - learning how to win close games is something you can only do by being in that position.

Yes, ISU had problems with end of half shots for a long time. The offensive game plan was typically Lucious, then Kane, then Monte dribbling around, jacking up a long two. People complained endlessly, but somehow seemed to revise history that ISU was running some of these magical set plays at the end of the games, when in reality it was get Royce the ball and let him make a play vs. KSU, let Scott C. bank in a bomb vs. OSU, let Naz hit some miracle 3s vs. OSU x2, let Kane make a tough shot vs. UNC and let Monte make a tough, tough shot vs. UT in the BTT. And of course Niang and Burton made some huge shots at critical moments too.

It seems like ISU is just missing the guy that has both the mindset and ability to execute consistently, including hitting FTs, right now. I think we will get there, and by the end of the season it could be any number of guys.

 

[bawbie]

Yes, ISU had problems with end of half shots for a long time. The offensive game plan was typically Lucious, then Kane, then Monte dribbling around, jacking up a long two. People complained endlessly, but somehow seemed to revise history that ISU was running some of these magical set plays at the end of the games, when in reality it was get Royce the ball and let him make a play vs. KSU, let Scott C. bank in a bomb vs. OSU, let Naz hit some miracle 3s vs. OSU x2, let Kane make a tough shot vs. UNC and let Monte make a tough, tough shot vs. UT in the BTT. And of course Niang and Burton made some huge shots at critical moments too.

It seems like ISU is just missing the guy that has both the mindset and ability to execute consistently, including hitting FTs, right now. I think we will get there, and by the end of the season it could be any number of guys.

Making the tough end of game shots does solve a lot of problems.

 

[madguy30]

I think the telling part is the need for a closer. Niang was an alpha closer that relished the role and could produce.

And the 16-17 team seemed to take half the year to get out of the habit of searching for Niang to get a bucket.

This team has potential to have more than one closer, just in different ways.

The management stuff like inbounds plays, etc. needs something to happen. That was almost very costly last night. Hell, ask the players what would work. Picket fence?

 

[stateofmind]

Can you tell me how you came up with the numbers of close games within 5 points? Here is what I got cause I was wondering myself:

View attachment 61694

Sorry I haven't finished it yet, but I just did games that finished withing 5 points, either win or lose, and got an overall record from his 4 years of 14-20 and 2-7 the last 2 years.

This is really good data. Looking at the losses in 17-18 it looks bad on his record, but look at the teams that we had a chance at the end. When playing teams with more talent and depth you may not have the energy to close, especially on the road.

This year's team has zero "system" players outside Babb. TH, THT, LW, MS, MJ, CL, ZT, ZG, SY, TS all have 1 year or less playing. With 4 of them not playing "almost double-digit" games in non-con. And in a non-con where we were destroying teams, not much "practice" in closing games.

I'm not making an excuse for CSP, if his team could execute the OOB, press break better our record is much better. And that's on him, but I think I will let the season play out and look forward to a balanced roster to build on this system that focuses on defense, with big xii top offense, and big xii top FT shooting.

(his name is Monte)

I wish I could go back and find the posts about the ends of first halves and games under Monte. "He dribbles too much and just goes one on one..." But the UT finish in the Big XII and the other big one I can't remember erases all of the bad. Just as this team will hopefully do the rest of the year.

 

[CyCloned]

I keep thinking that LW is going to suddenly be a good game closer, but his shot has disappeared for some reason.

 

[HardcoreClone]

So I messed this up. I forgot Niang was 2015-2016 so I updated the entire post to include that.
_________________________________________________________________________

I have seen a lot of questions about how Prohm's Iowa State teams have fared in close games and that it was not good, so I decided to do some research.

Some people have defined "close games" as games that end within a 5 point margin. I don't think is a fair representation. I looked at that record, but I also looked at games that were within 5 points between the 5 minute mark and the 30 second mark. The way I see it, if the game is tied with 4 minutes left and you lose by 12, that should count against you as how you fare in close games. Alternatively, if you win by 12, that should be seen as doing a great job closing out games.

Here are the results.
2015-2016 - With Niang
Overall: 23-12 (65%)
5 point final margin: 4-6 (40%)
within 5 points late: 8-10 (44%)

2016-2017 - (Not with Niang, but was with Morris)
Overall: 24-11 (68%)
5 point final margin: 7-6 (53%)
Within 5 points late: 11-7 (61%)

2017-2018
Overall: 13-18 (41%)
5 pt games: 1-3 (25%)
close games: 5-4 (55%)

2018-2019
Overall: 13-4 (76%)
5 pt games: 2-2 (50%)
close games: 4-2 (66%)

So what this is telling me is that even though Prohm's record in games that have a final score of 5 or less is mediocre (14-17), his record in games that are within 5 points any time in the last minute is actually pretty good (28-23). In fact, when a game has been close late, there have been 14 instances where his teams have stretched out to a larger margin of victory in the end and only 6 times has it turned into a larger margin of victory for the opponent.

I don't know the nuts and bolts of game planning and the decisions Prohm makes at ends of games, but on the surface to me, this seems like his teams at Iowa State have been very good at closing out close games.

Can you go ahead and list your data (each game)? I am curious to what his record is when we were leading or down?

I would also like to see the numbers nailed down to just the last 2-3min.

Thanks for the research!

 

[CapnCy]

I'm always a "total game" vs end of game perspective person (meaning, the errors early make it close at the end, etc).

BUT, I would say my only head scratcher the last few games appear to be defensive lapse. Meaning, we play great defense for 28 seconds on the shot clock to either give up an open/easy shot (or miss a rebound).....OR, somehow it seems teams are at will making layups.

 

[MartyFine]

The miracle of selective endpoints.

 

[coolerifyoudid]

Nonetheless, NWB was the one who broke (and the tie at 61-61) the momentum with a long 2 with a little over a minute to go.

I know a lot of factors contributed to us holding on for that win last night, but Nick's shot was a thing of beauty and so completely clutch. I held my breath when it left his hand and let out a huge exhale when it ripped the nylon.

 

[coolerifyoudid]

Did anyone else feel like we were in bizarro land last night though? Playing on the road, home team missing free throws, home team missing layups, coach calls a momentum killing timeout after they storm back to tie it.

For the life of me, I could not figure out why Beard called that timeout and deflated their own building like that. He may not have wanted to get into an up-and-down game with us, but with only 2 minutes left, I would have forced us to call our last timeout. The momentum was clearly on their side and their players were playing loose.

When I heard the whistle blow, I was like "Well, we're out of time-outs, but Prohm had to stop the bleeding". Then I saw that Tech called it and couldn't process it for a few moments.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Are you not entertained.

 

[SCyclone]

I have never seen anyone so consistent in crunch time when a bucket was absolutely needed.

I'd argue Jeff Grayer. (Although not knowing your age, that might be before your time.)

 

[moores2]

Good thread, and I think Prohm is still learning too. You could see the emphasis last night to get Shayok the ball to hit the final free throws. (Something we didn't see in the K-State game.) I know Wiggy wants the ball with the game on the line, but has been a streaky free throw shooter at best. I felt much more comfortable with Shayok at the line, even though he missed one. (Although the second half of a 1 and 1 instead of the 1st.)

 

[Sigmapolis]

Good thread, and I think Prohm is still learning too. You could see the emphasis last night to get Shayok the ball to hit the final free throws. (Something we didn't see in the K-State game.) I know Wiggy wants the ball with the game on the line, but has been a streaky free throw shooter at best. I felt much more comfortable with Shayok at the line, even though he missed one. (Although the second half of a 1 and 1 instead of the 1st.)

I thought that, too, when it happened.

Either the team or the team through coaching had it in their head to get either Nick (the best ball-handler and passer, and a pretty good FT shooter) or Marial (the best FT shooter) the ball once we knew Texas Tech was going to start fouling.

I will take our two best guys from the line and our two fifth-year seniors shooting for the game.

I have no doubt Prohm talked to them about that/gave them strict orders the same.

That is good coaching, teaching, and learning.

 

[CTTB78]

....
For the life of me, I could not figure out why Beard called that timeout and deflated their own building like that....

He was asked about that in his postgame and he said the TO was to review shot clock vs. game clock. Beard said he told his team that they would not intentionally foul at that point.

 

[coolerifyoudid]

He was asked about that in his postgame and he said the TO was to review shot clock vs. game clock. Beard said he told his team that they would not intentionally foul at that point.

Thanks. I didn't catch any postgame.

I can't say that I agree with that decision still, though. Momentum is a big deal in sports. The ol' "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" manta applies.

 

[spitfyr36]

Great data,
if I remember right didnt the 15-16 team only have 6 guys that played. Fatigue and fouls really killed us in those games.
Similar to last year with all the injuries, ontop of lack of experience

 

[cyclones12321]

So I messed this up. I forgot Niang was 2015-2016 so I updated the entire post to include that.
_________________________________________________________________________

I have seen a lot of questions about how Prohm's Iowa State teams have fared in close games and that it was not good, so I decided to do some research.

Some people have defined "close games" as games that end within a 5 point margin. I don't think is a fair representation. I looked at that record, but I also looked at games that were within 5 points between the 5 minute mark and the 30 second mark. The way I see it, if the game is tied with 4 minutes left and you lose by 12, that should count against you as how you fare in close games. Alternatively, if you win by 12, that should be seen as doing a great job closing out games.

Here are the results.
2015-2016 - With Niang
Overall: 23-12 (65%)
5 point final margin: 4-6 (40%)
within 5 points late: 8-10 (44%)

2016-2017 - (Not with Niang, but was with Morris)
Overall: 24-11 (68%)
5 point final margin: 7-6 (53%)
Within 5 points late: 11-7 (61%)

2017-2018
Overall: 13-18 (41%)
5 pt games: 1-3 (25%)
close games: 5-4 (55%)

2018-2019
Overall: 13-4 (76%)
5 pt games: 2-2 (50%)
close games: 4-2 (66%)

So what this is telling me is that even though Prohm's record in games that have a final score of 5 or less is mediocre (14-17), his record in games that are within 5 points any time in the last minute is actually pretty good (28-23). In fact, when a game has been close late, there have been 14 instances where his teams have stretched out to a larger margin of victory in the end and only 6 times has it turned into a larger margin of victory for the opponent.

I don't know the nuts and bolts of game planning and the decisions Prohm makes at ends of games, but on the surface to me, this seems like his teams at Iowa State have been very good at closing out close games.

Thanks for taking the time to put this together

 

[oldman]

I'd argue Jeff Grayer. (Although not knowing your age, that might be before your time.)

Barry Stevens too, if he hadn't fouled out before.

 

[clone52]

I think the telling part is the need for a closer. Niang was an alpha closer that relished the role and could produce.

Agree here. Wiggington should be that guy this year with this ability to get to the basket. But his injury I feel set him back some. When you want close out a game, you want someone who can get to the basket to either score or get fouled. Niang was that dude and Burton and Monte were in Prohm's second year. Right now, we try to close out with jump shots from Shayok and Babb. Not that those guys are scrubs, they are great, but closing out on jumpers is way more difficult.

2017-18 isn't really an outlier. They just had fewer close games, but how the team did in the close ones was very similar to other years.