Prediction for USC/UCLA postmortem.

Which scenario do you predict is most likely? (Not necessarily what you prefer).

  • BIG 10 is done (for now). The Big 12 poaches its pick of the PAC 12.

  • BIG 10 grabs few more PAC 12 (i.e. Oregon). The Big 12 takes PAC 12 leftovers.

  • The PAC 12 raids the Big 12 to survive. Iowa State is not one of them.

  • The PAC 12 raids the Big 12 to survive. Iowa State is one of them.

  • The PAC 12 survives like the Big 12 did last year by picking up schools like Fresno.

  • The Big 12 is raided by multiple conferences. Iowa State is AAC or Conference USA bound.

  • The Big 12 is raided by multiple conference. Iowa State ends up in a better conference.

  • The ACC and the PAC 12 implode due to BIG and SEC. The Big 12 raids PAC 12 and the ACC.

  • The Big 12 and PAC 12 merge.


Results are only viewable after voting.

BCClone

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IMO ESPN and Fox will not be in play for the Big12 or Pac12.

Fox is going to be HEAVILY invested in Big10 and 8-10 games/week is probably good. Plus they are going to want to be a player in the 8 or 12 team playoff.

ESPN is going to have to finance the SEC post UT/OU and potential other adds. Plus ESPN is on the hook for the ACC Network until 2036. Even if the ACC falls apart, that $ will be need to pay for any ACC to SEC moves at current dollars.

Seems to me the Big12/Pac12 are going to need NBC/Peacock, CBS/Paramount+, Amazon or Apple+ to step up. This could work out well since the Big12/Pac12 combination is the last conference media package available until 2030's.

The only exception is Notre Dame agreement with NBC is up 2025 (I believe).
Most teams have 1-2 byes in their schedule. So that would mean during the conference stretch, there would be times of maybe just 6 games available. I don’t think they can fill all their Timeslots and channels with 6 games. Guessing they want 10-12 available because an Illinois/NW or Rutgers/anybody will not draw much for viewers. Why ESPN was involved in several conferences.
 

isucy86

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Most teams have 1-2 byes in their schedule. So that would mean during the conference stretch, there would be times of maybe just 6 games available. I don’t think they can fill all their Timeslots and channels with 6 games. Guessing they want 10-12 available because an Illinois/NW or Rutgers/anybody will not draw much for viewers. Why ESPN was involved in several conferences.
But prices have changed. Fox's investment in the Big10 today is around $850M. That will double with USC/UCLA & new contract pricing. With ND, Oregon or any other adds- Fox could be on the hook for $2B. And that doesn't include around $1B if they want a share of an 8/12 team playoff.

Maybe Fox brings in a streaming partner or plans on introducing a Paramount+/Peacock type app, but I haven't seen anything to indicate that. 8-10 games on a weekend is enough inventory for Fox & FS1. That leaves the Big10 Network high & dry for games, but the Network could always simulcast a Peyton & Eli type show.

The biggest bang for the Big12/Pac12 is an eager partner like Apple or Amazon that want to create strong linkage with Big12/Pac12.
 

BCClone

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But prices have changed. Fox's investment in the Big10 today is around $850M. That will double with USC/UCLA & new contract pricing. With ND, Oregon or any other adds- Fox could be on the hook for $2B. And that doesn't include around $1B if they want a share of an 8/12 team playoff.

Maybe Fox brings in a streaming partner or plans on introducing a Paramount+/Peacock type app, but I haven't seen anything to indicate that. 8-10 games on a weekend is enough inventory for Fox & FS1. That leaves the Big10 Network high & dry for games, but the Network could always simulcast a Peyton & Eli type show.

The biggest bang for the Big12/Pac12 is an eager partner like Apple or Amazon that want to create strong linkage with Big12/Pac12.
the big 10 network is the only reason they have Rutgers and MD. Fox owns that also.
 

Walter

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In my sad opinion the Big 12 and Pac 12 teams left will wait around and try and get in with the Big 10 or SEC. Two 24 team 6 pod conferences. Can we make it in? Unfortunately I don't see how. PROVE ME WRONG MR. POLLARD!
 

clone52

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Big 12 will get Arizona, ASU, Colorado and Utah soon.

The next domino is Notre Dame. Could be soon, could be years. Once that happens, more Dominoes fall.

Eventually the Big 12 adds Duke, Syracuse, Memphis and UConn, sacrificing some football clout for guaranteeing the top basketball conference.

If the SEC goes to 24, the poach Oklahoma State and TCU.

The Big 12 stands pat with either 18 or 20 teams, but becomes the clear cut #3 conference.

Pac 12 survives as a marketing tool for the we Mountain West with a few Pac 12 stragglers.

ACC survives as a marketing tool for the AAC and some ACC stragglers.
 

2speedy1

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I think the big 12 will do whatever fox and espn allow/ pay for
You assume that ESPN and Fox will the only ones at the table?
And have enough left after their cash cows of the SEC and B1G to even make a play for the Big 12?

My guess is they are concentrating their entire load on those 2 conferences, that they wont be in play, at least for any kind of 1st tier main media rights, for the Big 12 is concerned.

My feeling is there are a couple networks that have historically had a large presence in CFB that will soon be completely out of the game, as well as a couple streaming titans that want in, that will be pursuing the Big 12 heavily, especially with 1 less major conference to fill content slots with, and the other (ACC) locked up until 2036.

Those being:
CBS/Paramount
NBC/Peacock
Apple
Amazon
 
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2speedy1

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Hard disagree here. The ACC payout is paltry and nearly half of SEC/B1G payout (actually $32M vs $54M currently). SEC's annual is climbing while ACC's is locked for 12 more years. ACC simply made a crappy deal. Clemson, Miami, FSU could easily jump to SEC, and a couple others to B1G and make more even after paying back their GOR. I think the ACC is dead soon too.
So how you going to break the GOR? Texas and OU wont leave the Big 12 for 1 year of GOR, and you think they will leave 14 years on the table?

That is like $1Billion per school in lost revenue. No one is paying that to leave the ACC.

That GOR is most likely means if say Clemson goes to the SEC, then they forfeit their SEC pay to the ACC until 2036, plus exit fees, and penalties. That means not only would Clemson have to Pay in excess of $100 million in exit fees and penalties, they would also pay all their income from the SEC until 2036. You take the SEC money say $75M per year, compound that by 5-10% annual growth per year. Say they leave in 2025, so 11 years? That would bankrupt any school long before they ever got to 2036.

There is a possibility they only would have to pay the ACC contract Value, say $40M per year compounded by 5-10% That still would be an astronomical loss that no one would pay. But my understanding of GORs is they forfeit their rights, meaning if they go somewhere else whatever they earn they forfeit to the ACC.

That is not going to happen. Unless there is a way to break that GOR, which is possible, but unlikely, because that would defeat the purpose of a GOR.
 
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aeroclone

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Put me in the camp of nothing exciting. B1G is done for now, PAC grabs a couple MWC teams and continues on, B12 does nothing. I just don't have faith that the B12 pulls off some major move here to strengthen the league.
 

RustShack

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I wish the Big 12 had just added Cincy and BYU, and not Houston or UCF.
Not grabbing Houston would increase the PACs survival chances. They absolutely would have picked them up. I would have just rather had Memphis than UCF.

But I understand the potential with UCF. Large market, large enrollment, have been pretty good in football.
 
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Hate to say it, but the Big 12 is officially a second tier conference. My guess is the Big 16 eventually adds ND, Cal, Stanford, Oregon, Washington, UNC and two other schools to get to 24. SEC does the same and poaches Clemson, Miami, FSU, TCU, OSU, and others.

They will develop some sort of playoff system that they control. We will be lucky to get one automatic qualifying spot.

Enjoy the next two season because college football (as we know it) is dead in 2024.
 

CyPhallus

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So how you going to break the GOR? Texas and OU wont leave the Big 12 for 1 year of GOR, and you think they will leave 14 years on the table?

That is like $1Billion per school in lost revenue. No one is paying that to leave the ACC.

That GOR is most likely means if say Clemson goes to the SEC, then they forfeit their SEC pay to the ACC until 2036, plus exit fees, and penalties. That means not only would Clemson have to Pay in excess of $100 million in exit fees and penalties, they would also pay all their income from the SEC until 2036. You take the SEC money say $75M per year, compound that by 5-10% annual growth per year. Say they leave in 2025, so 11 years? That would bankrupt any school long before they ever got to 2036.

There is a possibility they only would have to pay the ACC contract Value, say $40M per year compounded by 5-10% That still would be an astronomical loss that no one would pay. But my understanding of GORs is they forfeit their rights, meaning if they go somewhere else whatever they earn they forfeit to the ACC.

That is not going to happen. Unless there is a way to break that GOR, which is possible, but unlikely, because that would defeat the purpose of a GOR.
Thank you! So many people don't understand that the ACC teams are going nowhere.
 

clone52

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So how you going to break the GOR? Texas and OU wont leave the Big 12 for 1 year of GOR, and you think they will leave 14 years on the table?

That is like $1Billion per school in lost revenue. No one is paying that to leave the ACC.

That GOR is most likely means if say Clemson goes to the SEC, then they forfeit their SEC pay to the ACC until 2036, plus exit fees, and penalties. That means not only would Clemson have to Pay in excess of $100 million in exit fees and penalties, they would also pay all their income from the SEC until 2036. You take the SEC money say $75M per year, compound that by 5-10% annual growth per year. Say they leave in 2025, so 11 years? That would bankrupt any school long before they ever got to 2036.

There is a possibility they only would have to pay the ACC contract Value, say $40M per year compounded by 5-10% That still would be an astronomical loss that no one would pay. But my understanding of GORs is they forfeit their rights, meaning if they go somewhere else whatever they earn they forfeit to the ACC.

That is not going to happen. Unless there is a way to break that GOR, which is possible, but unlikely, because that would defeat the purpose of a GOR.

At some point the dominos fall. UNC, Virginia and Georgia Tech go to Big 10. NC State and Va Tech to the SEC. Big 12 grabs Syracuse and Duke. At that point, the ACC voters to void the grant of rights.

That's what Texas wanted and ESPN thought would happen, but the other 8 stuck together and Texas didn't have the votes. That won't happen in the ACC
 

BCClone

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So how you going to break the GOR? Texas and OU wont leave the Big 12 for 1 year of GOR, and you think they will leave 14 years on the table?

That is like $1Billion per school in lost revenue. No one is paying that to leave the ACC.

That GOR is most likely means if say Clemson goes to the SEC, then they forfeit their SEC pay to the ACC until 2036, plus exit fees, and penalties. That means not only would Clemson have to Pay in excess of $100 million in exit fees and penalties, they would also pay all their income from the SEC until 2036. You take the SEC money say $75M per year, compound that by 5-10% annual growth per year. Say they leave in 2025, so 11 years? That would bankrupt any school long before they ever got to 2036.

There is a possibility they only would have to pay the ACC contract Value, say $40M per year compounded by 5-10% That still would be an astronomical loss that no one would pay. But my understanding of GORs is they forfeit their rights, meaning if they go somewhere else whatever they earn they forfeit to the ACC.

That is not going to happen. Unless there is a way to break that GOR, which is possible, but unlikely, because that would defeat the purpose of a GOR.
The expensive part is the teams also pay a penalty, which per big xii is spelled out as the difference in what the contract is worth compared to before. So OuT are supposed to be worth 50% of TV rights, or 15 MM each school, that puts their combined hit at 120 MM for each year they leave early plus the other fees. Now if that is 12 years…..ouch.
 
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BCClone

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At some point the dominos fall. UNC, Virginia and Georgia Tech go to Big 10. NC State and Va Tech to the SEC. Big 12 grabs Syracuse and Duke. At that point, the ACC voters to void the grant of rights.

That's what Texas wanted and ESPN thought would happen, but the other 8 stuck together and Texas didn't have the votes. That won't happen in the ACC
Big ten is not taking Tech, doubting the SEC wants NC state, big xii isn’t taking either of the teams you mention. The penalties to leave will hold the ACC together for a bit.
 
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clone52

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Big ten is taking Tech, doubting the SEC wants NC state, big xii isn’t taking either of the teams you mention. The penalties to leave will hold the ACC together for a bit.
SEC will take whoever they have to take in order to get Clemson and FSU. If they need to take more ACC schools to break the grant of rights, they will.

My Big 10 friends have told me the Big 10 only wants Virginia. Could be wrong, but does Virginia Tech open up any media markets or recruiting grounds that Virginia does not?
 

BCClone

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SEC will take whoever they have to take in order to get Clemson and FSU. If they need to take more ACC schools to break the grant of rights, they will.

My Big 10 friends have told me the Big 10 only wants Virginia. Could be wrong, but does Virginia Tech open up any media markets or recruiting grounds that Virginia does not?
North Carolina is on the big ten list also. They fit in.
 
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Clonehomer

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Hate to say it, but the Big 12 is officially a second tier conference. My guess is the Big 16 eventually adds ND, Cal, Stanford, Oregon, Washington, UNC and two other schools to get to 24. SEC does the same and poaches Clemson, Miami, FSU, TCU, OSU, and others.

They will develop some sort of playoff system that they control. We will be lucky to get one automatic qualifying spot.

Enjoy the next two season because college football (as we know it) is dead in 2024.

Yes, the Big12 is 2nd tier. Can't dispute that. But, they are a 2nd tier with a lot of big peers. So I don't think they can be dismissed the same way we were talking several years ago when the Big12 was on the outside with 4 power conferences. The Big10 and SEC can't just leave the rest behind and expect to just continue along by themselves.
 

HoopsTournament

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At some point the dominos fall. UNC, Virginia and Georgia Tech go to Big 10. NC State and Va Tech to the SEC. Big 12 grabs Syracuse and Duke. At that point, the ACC voters to void the grant of rights.

That's what Texas wanted and ESPN thought would happen, but the other 8 stuck together and Texas didn't have the votes. That won't happen in the ACC
There is no way the other teams would vote to void the GOR in that situation because they would have about $7 billion to divide between 8 teams. And the others aren’t going to pay $1 billion to join the other leagues especially Syracuse and Duke.
 

cymonw1980

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I voted 2… I *think* ND stays independent and the b10 grabs 2 more (Wash/Oregon).

The fact that they were not invited yet surprises me a bit. But the reality is, I don’t think the pac offers a lot from a tv revenue standpoint. At the end of the day this is the only thing that matters.

One interesting/crazy scenario (don’t think this is likely), would be for the sec to swoop in while the b10 waits for ND. ND says no, but sec adds Oregon, Wash, Col, Utah to go to 20 while the b10 sits on the sideline.