Prediction for USC/UCLA postmortem.

Which scenario do you predict is most likely? (Not necessarily what you prefer).

  • BIG 10 is done (for now). The Big 12 poaches its pick of the PAC 12.

  • BIG 10 grabs few more PAC 12 (i.e. Oregon). The Big 12 takes PAC 12 leftovers.

  • The PAC 12 raids the Big 12 to survive. Iowa State is not one of them.

  • The PAC 12 raids the Big 12 to survive. Iowa State is one of them.

  • The PAC 12 survives like the Big 12 did last year by picking up schools like Fresno.

  • The Big 12 is raided by multiple conferences. Iowa State is AAC or Conference USA bound.

  • The Big 12 is raided by multiple conference. Iowa State ends up in a better conference.

  • The ACC and the PAC 12 implode due to BIG and SEC. The Big 12 raids PAC 12 and the ACC.

  • The Big 12 and PAC 12 merge.


Results are only viewable after voting.

beentherebefore

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The more I think about it, the more I can't come up with a single major school that has really benefited from changing conferences. I suppose that may change, but Maybe Texas A&M has had a slight benefit simply by being away from Texas.
 

Klubber

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Yes, the Big12 is 2nd tier. Can't dispute that. But, they are a 2nd tier with a lot of big peers. So I don't think they can be dismissed the same way we were talking several years ago when the Big12 was on the outside with 4 power conferences. The Big10 and SEC can't just leave the rest behind and expect to just continue along by themselves.
We'll see about being "2nd Tier". If money was the sole predictor of success then you wouldn't have all the crappy football teams in the B1G.

Yes, everybody wants the $100 million or whatever the B1G and SEC might get in this next round of TV deals. But do you need that amount to build a really good football program? No, you don't.

Clemson's TV money throughout their outstanding stretch in football has been lagging way behind other schools in the P-5. Iowa State is a better football program right now than NW, Nebby, Illinois, Indiana, Maryland and Rutgers.

If the Big XII can fortify with PAC leftovers and boost their TV revenue to maybe $70 - $80+ million/per range this next go around, they'll be in really good shape. And, continue to do well in non/con games and playoff appearances as well of course.

If you're beating your P-5 peers on the field, you're not 2nd tier.
 

HoopsTournament

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If a couple of dominos were to fall, the ACC could vote to disband if enough schools have landing spots lined up. Notre Dame could be the first domino.
Norte Dame’s domino is on the other side of the room. Their departure will have no impact on the rest of the ACC because their rights are only for non-football sports. Think $1 billion vs. $50 million in terms of impact.
 

cyclones500

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My prediction/poll choice: BIG grabs more PAC, Big 12 takes PAC leftovers. (so far voted most-likely by wide margin).

My runners-up: PAC survives like Big 12 did; Big 12/Pac 12 merge.
 

KidSilverhair

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I don’t have a prediction - I never seriously thought USC and UCLA would ever go B1G, and that happened in a few hours (publicly, anyway) - but here’s a thought:

+B1G wants Notre Dame, & they’ll package them with Oregon if ND comes aboard. They might possibly also add Washington and somebody else … Utah? Cal? Stanford? Frankly I don’t see the $$$ value for B1G in either Cal or Stanford, or Colorado for that matter.

+If ND refuses, B1G will get both Oregon & Washington for the time being.

+B12 needs to get proactive. Colorado, Arizona State, Arizona, and Utah make a ton of sense. If other PAC refugees are interested, welcome them aboard.

+ACC is going to stumble along as long as ESPN can prop them up. The SEC and B1G have their sights on a few members, but the financial realities of GoR and the TV deals don’t work in the favor of anybody leaving the ACC for a while, at least in my opinion. Eventually, yes, the SEC gets Clemson, maybe Miami, and the B1G gets Virginia, maybe UNC. I do think Notre Dame will eventually have to cave and join a conference, and the B1G is the logical one, but who the heck knows.
 
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BCClone

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Not exactly sure.
We'll see about being "2nd Tier". If money was the sole predictor of success then you wouldn't have all the crappy football teams in the B1G.

Yes, everybody wants the $100 million or whatever the B1G and SEC might get in this next round of TV deals. But do you need that amount to build a really good football program? No, you don't.

Clemson's TV money throughout their outstanding stretch in football has been lagging way behind other schools in the P-5. Iowa State is a better football program right now than NW, Nebby, Illinois, Indiana, Maryland and Rutgers.

If the Big XII can fortify with PAC leftovers and boost their TV revenue to maybe $70 - $80+ million/per range this next go around, they'll be in really good shape. And, continue to do well in non/con games and playoff appearances as well of course.

If you're beating your P-5 peers on the field, you're not 2nd tier.
That is a little strong. Think that 50-60 is going to be the goal. That would put us as #3
 

BCClone

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Not exactly sure.
I don’t have a prediction - I never seriously thought USC and UCLA would ever go B1G, and that happened in a few hours (publicly, anyway) - but here’s a thought:

+B1G wants Notre Dame, & they’ll package them with Oregon if ND comes aboard. They might possibly also add Washington and somebody else … Utah? Cal? Stanford? Frankly I don’t see the $$$ value for B1G in either Cal or Stanford, or Colorado for that matter.

+If ND refuses, B1G will get both Oregon & Washington for the time being.

+B12 needs to get proactive. Colorado, Arizona State, Arizona, and Utah make a ton of sense. If other PAC refugees are interested, welcome them aboard.

+ACC is going to stumble along as long as ESPN can prop them up. The SEC and B1G have their sights on a few members, but the financial realities of GoR and the TV deals don’t work in the favor of anybody leaving the ACC for a while, at least in my opinion. Eventually, yes, the SEC gets Clemson, maybe Miami, and the B1G gets Virginia, maybe UNC. I do think Notre Dame will eventually have to cave and join a conference, and the B1G is the logical one, but who the heck knows.
Isn't Stanford one of ND's rivals? Wonder if they will push for them instead of Oregon.
 

Cyrealist

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+ACC is going to stumble along as long as ESPN can prop them up. The SEC and B1G have their sights on a few members, but the financial realities of GoR and the TV deals don’t work in the favor of anybody leaving the ACC for a while
I think the GoR commitment could be broken in court as unreasonably restrictive. It's like a non-compete clause in an employment contract. The courts invalidate them if they're too restrictive. With something over a half a billion dollars at stake, I think someone would probably at least consider a lawsuit.
 

Cyrealist

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I just stayed at a Holiday Inn.

Or does some interstate commerce law prohibit the P5 from being a closed system. After all these are mainly public universities.

So does there need to be some system of relegation/promotion based on record?
 
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KidSilverhair

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Isn't Stanford one of ND's rivals? Wonder if they will push for them instead of Oregon.
Well, I’m saying who brings equivalent TV/media value to the $100 million per team the B1G is talking about. Notre Dame, for sure. Oregon would have to be close. Maybe Washington. I just don’t see Stanford in that category, but maybe I’m wrong.

Utah? Nope, although they might still work with them. Cal, Colorado, Arizona, either of the States (Oregon & Washington)? Heck no.
 
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exCyDing

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The Big 12 seems well-positioned to be the catch all for PAC/ACC teams the SEC and Big 10 pass over. The main strengths are having the best media deal outside those two and already being picked over. I think if there was anybody else those two wanted, they’d be in the conference already. On the other side, whose going to leave a relatively stable conference in the Big 12 for less money and a conference that’s about to get picked over by the Big 10 and SEC again?

The PAC is probably dead or going to be a G5 conference. The Big 10 will take 2-4 more teams (WA, Stanford, OR, Cal/Arizona in that order, IMO). I don’t see the SEC making a similar push to add west coast teams with USC off the table. It makes more sense for the west coast teams to go to the same conference. The Big 12 can pick and choose who they’d like from the remainder (Utah, the AZ schools and CO get my vote).

The remaining schools (WA St, OR St, maybe Cal) carry on the PAC name, but with the likes of Boise St, Fresno St, San Diego St, etc.

The ACC probably has a similar fate with the Big 10 taking UNC, VA, NC St. Given a choice between the SEC and Big 10, Notre Dame goes to the Big 10. Clemson, Florida St, Miami all go to the SEC. Again, Big 12 can pick through the remainders.

I think the Big 12 probably adds Utah, CO, AZ & AZ St from the PAC in the next couple of years. In 5-10 years, the Big 12 will add two of Pitt/VA Tech/Louisville/GA Tech.

Then we’ll start talking about when Ohio St, Michigan, Alabama, Texas and the like will leave the SEC and Big 10 to form a new Super Super Conference. That’s probably the next time the Big 12 loses it members. The conferences will start to re-sort along more reasonable geographical lines and conference sizes once the top 20-ish teams go full pro.
 
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BCClone

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Not exactly sure.
Well, I’m saying who brings equivalent TV/media value to the $100 million per team the B1G is talking about. Notre Dame, for sure. Oregon would have to be close. Maybe Washington. I just don’t see Stanford in that category, but maybe I’m wrong.

Utah? Nope, although they might still work with them. Cal, Colorado, Arizona, either of the States (Oregon & Washington)? Heck no.
I know, but ND brings enough that they could demand one of their rivals gets a seat and they would be able to cover any difference.
 

BCClone

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Not exactly sure.
The Big 12 seems well-positioned to be the catch all for PAC/ACC teams the SEC and Big 10 pass over. The main strengths are having the best media deal outside those two and already being picked over. I think if there was anybody else those two wanted, they’d be in the conference already. On the other side, whose going to leave a relatively stable conference in the Big 12 for less money and a conference that’s about to get picked over by the Big 10 and SEC again?

The PAC is probably dead or going to be a G5 conference. The Big 10 will take 2-4 more teams (WA, Stanford, OR, Cal/Arizona in that order, IMO). I don’t see the SEC making a similar push to add west coast teams with USC off the table. It makes more sense for the west coast teams to go to the same conference. The Big 12 can pick and choose who they’d like from the remainder (Utah, the AZ schools and CO get my vote).

The remaining schools (WA St, OR St, maybe Cal) carry on the PAC name, but with the likes of Boise St, Fresno St, San Diego St, etc.

The ACC probably has a similar fate with the Big 10 taking UNC, VA, NC St. Given a choice between the SEC and Big 10, Notre Dame goes to the Big 10. Clemson, Florida St, Miami all go to the SEC. Again, Big 12 can pick through the remainders.

I think the Big 12 probably adds Utah, CO, AZ & AZ St from the PAC in the next couple of years. In 5-10 years, the Big 12 will add two of Pitt/VA Tech/Louisville/GA Tech.

Then we’ll start talking about when Ohio St, Michigan, Alabama, Texas and the like will leave the SEC and Big 10 to form a new Super Super Conference. That’s probably the next time the Big 12 loses it members. The conferences will start to re-sort along more reasonable geographical lines and conference sizes once the top 20-ish teams go full pro.
This will happen when Texas loses to Vanderbilt and determines that they are too good to do that and they must leave.
 

KidSilverhair

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The PAC is probably dead or going to be a G5 conference.
Isn‘t it going to be like the G7 or G8 now? :)

Power 2 and Little 8.

I still think the non-B1G/SEC schools should just refuse to play against the Power 2. You guys want all the money and all the glory and all the playoff spots? Go ahead, but don’t think you can fatten your W/L records at our expense any more. Let Iowa and Texas and Michigan and Florida go 3-9 or 2-10 every year, see if they like it.
 

exCyDing

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Isn‘t it going to be like the G7 or G8 now? :)

Power 2 and Little 8.

I still think the non-B1G/SEC schools should just refuse to play against the Power 2. You guys want all the money and all the glory and all the playoff spots? Go ahead, but don’t think you can fatten your W/L records at our expense any more. Let Iowa and Texas and Michigan and Florida go 3-9 or 2-10 every year, see if they like it.
My proposal would be to replace Power Five (P5 )with $uper Two ($2) and Fine Three (F3). G5 remains.

I’d be fine with the F3 mostly ignoring the $2 teams that drove a lot of this and/or switched conferences but schedule and beat this **** out of mid-tier teams.
 

BCClone

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Not exactly sure.
My proposal would be to replace Power Five (P5 )with $uper Two ($2) and Fine Three (F3). G5 remains.

I’d be fine with the F3 mostly ignoring the $2 teams that drove a lot of this and/or switched conferences but schedule and beat this **** out of mid-tier teams.
I would say it will be more like a P2, F2, and g6.