I’m in the minority, which is fine, but I think the NCAA Tournment should be the floor for a Top 30 program like Iowa State. That is what Fred built and what Steve continued in his first two years. I understand a rebuild every 5 years may occur but when you have been to the tournament 7 of the last 8 years that becomes the cultural and the expectation.
Losing out and finishing 20-13 (which should not happen) would be disappointing. No school is ever going to fire a coach when they make the NCAA Tournament but if you are just making the tournament every year and not advancing then it is going to be difficult to keep Iowa State at that Top 30 level as a program. So in that respect I think the next two weeks are quite crucial.
It would definitely be disappointing (and I don't think that will happen, by the way), but the year as a whole, bouncing back from dead last place in the conference, will almost certainly be seen by Jamie Pollard as more successful than not, because he is going to look at everything in total (wins, losses, talent in the program, talent coming into the program, etc). So, not crucial, but obviously it will leave a better taste in everyone's mouth if they can get back on track and make some noise to finish out.