I think you make a lot of valid points.
The bold part though is where, in my opinion, our fans are a bit overly misguided or optimistic.
IMHO, we are not a difficult scout. Teams like Miami, Pitt, Illinois - they pressure our guards, packed the lane, and that was that. Sure, if we shoot well, we can beat anyone. But I’m not seeing a ton of evidence lately that we can consistently get open looks. Arizona was the exception, and even then we of course had a terrible stretch in the second half where we went from up 24 to only up 9.
I think we do play “tough defense” for stretches. I don’t think this team plays tough defense for long enough stretches.
7-7 in our last 14 games. And even if it is because of injuries, the reality is - the losses have taken their toll.