***Official 2025 Weather Thread***

CryoLegion

New Member
Jul 27, 2024
20
24
3
Ames, IA
Rare Day 7 Slight Risk out for the Plains/Midwest, including Iowa. That would be Monday.
They're not that rare these days due to machine learning models like CSU-MLP, but I'm actually quite concerned about this one as the SPC mentioned "all-hazards" on Day 7 already which means tornadoes. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

I think there could be capping issues though, the ECWMF showed a line of storms coming from Nebraska into Iowa yesterday, while the GFS showed supercells in Iowa, but now both models are showing barely any storms during that timeframe (4-10 pm next Monday) despite the environment being otherwise favorable.

I think the culprit could be the elevated mixed layer here (the green dew point line in the hodograph being relatively low a few kilometers at the surface compared to higher and lower up, this is a layer of dry air that oftentimes prevents surface based storms- the storms that produce those green skies that come before really bad weather).
1745339442335.png 1745339211249.png 1745339296713.png
 

NWICY

Well-Known Member
Sep 2, 2012
34,351
30,414
113
Mainly rain in the thunderstorm near FD about 8pm but there was some hail in it. Was driving but it didn't ding up the car.
 

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