***Official 2021 Weather Thread***
- Thread starter ClonesTwenty1
- Start date
Any of the experts have some insights into what's expected and/or uncertainty with this system? I see wx underground has 9" of snow between 1/23 and 1/27.
4-8 days out....go grab a Magic 8 Ball. It will get you just as close.
I fully understand the meteorology profession and its uncertainty. I was just curious what we know today and recognize that may change.
Jeriann said northern Iowa would get the highest amount, but that it was a few days out yet but to expect travel issues in central Iowa.
FIFY!!
Must have been a slow news morning on WHO-TV. They had a lot of weather on from 6-6:30.
Not to be picky or anything, but I think the title of the thread would look better if the "w" and "t" in "weather thread" were capitalized. Makes it more "official".
If you want some detail read the forecast discussion on the NWS:https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...MX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
Here is the discussion for the system later this week:
Meanwhile, a trough digging across the western US will begin to phase with the northern stream as it moves in the central US. The system is fairly messy as it moves across the CWA as models do not completely phase the northern and southern streams until east of the area. as such, there is still considerable uncertainty with this system, especially in regards to precipitation type. Models struggle with depth of the warm nose aloft and loss of ice introduction later in the event which would significantly impacts any accumulations. A wintry mix is likely further south with better chances for only snow further north and into Minnesota, but this will remain sensitive to any shift in timing and track.
I visit this forum occasionally but it usually has good discussion of weather including Iowa.
The problem with Weather Underground is that those overall 24-hour totals are rounded up. It doesn’t matter much for 24 hour events, but 10 inches seems inflated by 4-5 days of totals that are rounded as integers instead of decimals.
Temps will be key in this system. Central Iowa looks like it falls squarely on the rain/snow line
Good job! Asterisks too!
Triple asterisks even! Wow! We must be in for some bad storms this year.
Earl says looking like an 6 incher here in Eastern Iowa. Nothing overly impressive but still has an impact.
I think last storm they predicted around 6"-8" of snow north of DSM and we only got around 4" but it was heavy wet snow. Western Iowa got hit with a lot more wind and they seemed to get more of the snow on the back side. Whereas they were only suppose to get a couple of inches of snow. I saw pictures of 4'-5' tall drifts in some areas.
The really worry could be what follows the this storm a the low could produce some slightly warmer conditions and we could be in the zone for freezing rain and drizzle. I would much rather see 8" of snow over a 1/4" or more of freezing rain.
The really worry could be what follows the this storm a the low could produce some slightly warmer conditions and we could be in the zone for freezing rain and drizzle. I would much rather see 8" of snow over a 1/4" or more of freezing rain.
From the Quady City NWS afternoon Forecast Discussion
"Saturday night into early next week, a clipper system will track
north of the area and a southern stream system will move just south
of the area. Similar to last night, these two systems seem to NOT
phase and the clipper continues to appear more progressive. The
model blend has lower end chance Pops across the north Saturday
night, slight/chance Pops early Sunday, and then 30 to 40 Pops
Sunday afternoon and evening for the southern wave. A trailing
wave in the southern flow is expected to skirt the southeast third
Monday afternoon and night. Confidence remains low in the track
of these systems and thus any finer details. The current blend has
mainly snow along and north of I-80 with a wintry mix working
into areas south of the interstate at times. Dry conditions are
slated for Tuesday."
"Saturday night into early next week, a clipper system will track
north of the area and a southern stream system will move just south
of the area. Similar to last night, these two systems seem to NOT
phase and the clipper continues to appear more progressive. The
model blend has lower end chance Pops across the north Saturday
night, slight/chance Pops early Sunday, and then 30 to 40 Pops
Sunday afternoon and evening for the southern wave. A trailing
wave in the southern flow is expected to skirt the southeast third
Monday afternoon and night. Confidence remains low in the track
of these systems and thus any finer details. The current blend has
mainly snow along and north of I-80 with a wintry mix working
into areas south of the interstate at times. Dry conditions are
slated for Tuesday."
