Next years lineup

[I-stateTheTruth]

Last year, I could not have predicted the impacts that Jacobson and Haliburton have had so this seems like a way-too-early exercise. Maybe Jackson or Anderson will surprise us. Maybe Leech's injury still won't be 100%. No idea.

It seems to me that this thread is onto something in terms of playing 4 guards + 1 big or 3+2. It's hard to imagine those 4 bigs splitting 40 minutes between them. Playing 4 guards - even big ones like we have - has its downside in rebounding, as we've seen.

I do predict that next year, people will still be misspelling "Jacobson".

It's tough to imagine Wigginton in the NBA a year from now but maybe his calculation will be that he'd rather work on his game in the G League than have to keep writing research papers at ISU. Certainly, NBA scouts will be able to see his explosiveness there as well.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Last year, I could not have predicted the impacts that Jacobson and Haliburton have had so this seems like a way-too-early exercise. Maybe Jackson or Anderson will surprise us. Maybe Leech's injury still won't be 100%. No idea.

It seems to me that this thread is onto something in terms of playing 4 guards + 1 big or 3+2. It's hard to imagine those 4 bigs splitting 40 minutes between them. Playing 4 guards - even big ones like we have - has its downside in rebounding, as we've seen.

I do predict that next year, people will still be misspelling "Jacobson".

It's tough to imagine Wigginton in the NBA a year from now but maybe his calculation will be that he'd rather work on his game in the G League than have to keep writing research papers at ISU. Certainly, NBA scouts will be able to see his explosiveness there as well.

To quote a recent article from The Ringer about playing the D-League...

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2019/2/25/18239529/nba-one-and-done-draft-zion-williamson

It’s not, which is why so few players go overseas (as did Brandon Jennings and Emmanuel Mudiay) to get paid before entering the draft, and no player has taken the $125,000 that the G League is now offering to “elite prospects” 18 or older. Some college teams illegally pay players too, but even playing for only a scholarship for a college team with cutting-edge facilities, private planes, and rabid fan bases might beat riding on buses through the snowy back roads of the Midwest to play in empty G League arenas, or living alone in a country where few around you speak your language. Barkley is right that it’s not all about the money, and that’s why the NBA and NCAA should develop a plan to give players a path to go back to college if they so choose.

Playing for the Ft. Wayne Mad Ants sounds considerably less fun, and you have worse travel arrangements and facilities, than playing for Iowa State.

 

[I-stateTheTruth]

To quote a recent article from The Ringer about playing the D-League...

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2019/2/25/18239529/nba-one-and-done-draft-zion-williamson

It’s not, which is why so few players go overseas (as did Brandon Jennings and Emmanuel Mudiay) to get paid before entering the draft, and no player has taken the $125,000 that the G League is now offering to “elite prospects” 18 or older. Some college teams illegally pay players too, but even playing for only a scholarship for a college team with cutting-edge facilities, private planes, and rabid fan bases might beat riding on buses through the snowy back roads of the Midwest to play in empty G League arenas, or living alone in a country where few around you speak your language. Barkley is right that it’s not all about the money, and that’s why the NBA and NCAA should develop a plan to give players a path to go back to college if they so choose.

Playing for the Ft. Wayne Mad Ants sounds considerably less fun, and you have worse travel arrangements and facilities, than playing for Iowa State.

Yeah, I get that and those factors would influence MY decisions (assuming I was a 6'2" shooting guard from Canada, with a 40-inch vertical. None of which is true except the 6'2" part). But I don't know Lindell and his calculation might be to use all those hours for education on his game and to rest.

And "Mad Ants" is a stupid nickname.

 

[isutrevman]

Ideal:

Haliburton
Wigg
THT
Nixon
Lard

This could be the Big 12 All-Defense team on its own.

Defense might be good, but we would never get a rebound.

 

[NoCreativity]

Personally, I would like to see Lewis get more playing time.

I would too, I think the forgetting his ID thing sealed his fate with this program. I think he's the most likely transfer candidate this off-season.

 

[FinalFourCy]

Ideal:

Haliburton
Wigg
THT
Nixon
Lard

This could be the Big 12 All-Defense team on its own.

From what we’ve seen this year, that’s not a good all-ISU defensive team.

 

[CyTwins]

From what we’ve seen this year, that’s not a good all-ISU defensive team.

I think that would be a very good defensive team. Nixon will be our best defender next year

 

[FinalFourCy]

I think that would be a very good defensive team. Nixon will be our best defender next year

In one-on-one drills, perhaps.

Nixon should help, but Wigginton and Lard have a ways to go on defending screens and basic fundamentals. Lard can’t even stay on the court most games due to fouls. Haliburton and THT are decent for freshmen but aren’t yet plus defenders.

 

[Sigmapolis]

This year's team has the best adjusted defensive efficiency of any team in the Barttovik database, which goes all the way back to 2007-2008. That was Brackin's freshman season and the senior season for Rashon Clark, for some context. It has been awhile.

35th is the best in the twelve years of the database.



This team is not stocked with great defenders, but it has plenty of good ones. Nick and Marial are two of the better ones, but there is no reason with the existing and incoming talent on the roster that we cannot continue to be a good defensive team next season.

 

[FinalFourCy]

This year's team has the best adjusted defensive efficiency of any team in the Barttovik database, which goes all the way back to 2007-2008. That was Brackin's freshman season and the senior season for Rashon Clark, for some context. It has been awhile.

35th is the best in the twelve years of the database.

This team is not stocked with great defenders, but it has plenty of good ones. Nick and Marial are two of the better ones, but there is no reason with the existing and incoming talent on the roster that we cannot continue to be a good defensive team next season.

35th, and falling.
We’re 37th in KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency, but 7 Big 12 teams are in the top 40, 8 in the top 60. If we lose two of our best defenders and replace them with two guys that struggle in basic action, a significant slide is possible. The notion that lineup had several All-Big 12 defenders is optimistic.

 

[Sigmapolis]

35th, and falling.

Do you have any evidence for this...?

I thought we played well on defense against TCU (in Texas) and against Oklahoma. We lost the first game because we went 2/20 from three and won the second.

We’re 37th in KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency, but 7 Big 12 teams are in the top 40, 8 in the top 60. If we lose two of our best defenders and replace them with two guys that struggle in basic action, a significant slide is possible. The notion that lineup had several All-Big 12 defenders is optimistic.

This just makes my case further about how rancid the program has been on defense for the past decade, and two of the recent Prohm teams (the second one and this one) are actually the two best defensive teams we have had the database we are using.

Nick and Marial are loses and not easily replaced, you are right, but my point was we have a team playing some functional defense now. This is a much better defensive team than the ones we have had in Ames for a long time. We would have to regress pretty badly to end up in the same range as some of those early Fred teams at stopping opponents.

 

[MK24Cy]

In one-on-one drills, perhaps.

Nixon should help, but Wigginton and Lard have a ways to go on defending screens and basic fundamentals. Lard can’t even stay on the court most games due to fouls. Haliburton and THT are decent for freshmen but aren’t yet plus defenders.

I know no one's gonna change your mind on this board, but you certainly seem to paint Lard pretty negatively in a lot of your posts. To each his own, and you see what you see, but to go so far as having Jacobson and Conditt both starting ahead of him next year in an earlier post is a bit of a head-scratcher.

Lard basically got into trouble the second the season ended last year and missed the entire offseason and then had an injury right after he came back from his suspension. I get that he's been very erratic this year on defense and statistically he and Jacobson have proved equally mediocre at stopping people, but the physical tools are all there for Lard to take a big step forward with a full offseason of quality time in the gym and proper coaching, whereas defensively I feel you're not getting much more out of Jacobson than what he's already shown.

Lard's even shooting 75% from the FT line while Jacobson's in the upper 60's, and shooting's the one area where Jacobson seemingly has an advantage(I know that's different than shooting contested jumpers, but stands to reason that if he can hit 75% from the line he could develop a solid jumper). I'm just curious why you think Lard's hit some sort of ceiling with his current play when he missed nearly the entire offseason, has barely played in half the regular season games and is only averaging 13 min a night in those games due to a starting lineup that seemingly gelled and was winning games without him so Prohm isn't going to mess with it this late in the year.

 

[bosco]

Can't wait to watch that lineup try to rebound against Baylor while Lard, Solo, and Conditt waste away on the bench.

Don't have to wait we basically already saw it twice this year sans young.

 

[FinalFourCy]

To go so far as having Jacobson and Conditt both starting ahead of him next year in an earlier post is a bit of a head-scratcher.

The physical tools are all there for Lard to take a big step forward with a full offseason of quality time in the gym and proper coaching.

I'm just curious why you think Lard's hit some sort of ceiling with his current play when he missed nearly the entire offseason, has barely played in half the regular season games and is only averaging 13 min a night in those games due to a starting lineup that seemingly gelled and was winning games without him so Prohm isn't going to mess with it this late in the year.

Lard has a great ceiling, which he clearly hasn’t hit, but distant ceilings don’t earn you starts for most coaches. Conditt also has a great ceiling, but potentially a better ability to complement the other starters in that lineup. Then there are the issues of Lard’s foul rate making him too risky to start and Lard having no more mulligans off the court.

 

[FinalFourCy]

Do you have any evidence for this...?

I thought we played well on defense against TCU (in Texas) and against Oklahoma. We lost the first game because we went 2/20 from three and won the second.



This just makes my case further about how rancid the program has been on defense for the past decade, and two of the recent Prohm teams (the second one and this one) are actually the two best defensive teams.

This is a much better defensive team than the ones we have had in Ames for a long time. We would have to regress pretty badly to end up in the same range as some of those early Fred teams at stopping opponents.

What were we ranked two weeks ago? A month ago? 2 months ago?

The rancid past is only pertinent if someone was contending we’d be good relative to previous teams. I don’t think anyone has suggested we’ll be worse than those Fred teams.

It was alluded that would be a lineup of very good Big 12 defenders. I disagree, contending those weren’t even the best defenders on the roster. The sum of the parts may be good, but then again, this year’s group is a mediocre 6th in the Big 12 and we both agree we lose two of the better defenders. Hard to say our defense is All-Big 12 (good) as a unit, either.

 

[Sigmapolis]

What were we ranked two weeks ago? A month ago? 2 months ago?

You made the point without supporting it with any qualitative or quantitative evidence. I am not going to do your research for you. I know you know how KenPom works.

The rancid past is only pertinent if someone was contending we’d be good relative to previous teams. I don’t think anyone has suggested we’ll be worse than those Fred teams.

Do you read this board? We lose a game, and Prohm is destroying the proud legacy that Fred built, brought down from Mt. Sinai and the Word of Johnny Orr himself.

I think the program now is of about the same quality when Fred left it.

It was alluded that would be a lineup of very good Big 12 defenders. I disagree, contending those weren’t even the best defenders on the roster. The sum of the parts may be good, but then again, this year’s group is a mediocre 6th in the Big 12 and we both agree we lose two of the better defenders. Hard to say our defense is All-Big 12 (good) as a unit, either.

I more or less agree with this as an assessment of the downside.

My counterpoint, if not quite disagreement, is still --

The program is categorically better on defense this season than it was during Fred's tenure and the decade before that when the program was frankly bad in all regards. Those Fred teams were good, if unbalanced and unreliable, so we have some space to give without becoming an awful defense, even if "good for us" is middle of the Big 12.

Additionally, Prohm has shown some ability to develop a defense to the sub-40 level nationally and to the middle of the pack in the Big 12 that none of our other recent coaches have been able to do. We have a good/decent defense this year without having really any Babb or Cato sorts of ace defenders to eliminate an opponent's #1 option. We have managed to forge something that is slightly better than the sum of its parts, which is nice to see.

He did the same thing in 2016-2017 with a team that basically lacked anything resembling a post presence until Solomon came into his own in February. That four-guard and freshman big man team was the second best defense on my table. I, therefore, have some confidence we can string together a passable defense, even if the pieces do not fit together perfectly, next season, though you may be right we are diving even deeper into the scrap heap.

There is a track record there of at least being adequate in ways we were not before, even if your points about the individual players are well-founded.

 

[bawbie]

Two things I know:

- Prohm thinks 4-1 lineup is what works. Don’t expect multiple bigs.

- Prohm knows point guards and Tre Jackson is a Prohm PG. expect him to play

 

[MK24Cy]

Assuming all 4 of our bigs go through the full compliment of offseason workouts without any injuries/extracurricular issues, I think our best option is to have 3 guards and 2 bigs be our standard starting lineup and we can adapt based on how each game dictates.

With Conditt being a true freshman, Lard's suspension/injuries, and Solomon's injury, there's been little to no issue with team chemistry this year, but if all 4 come into next year at full strength looking to prove something, team chemistry could become a big issue with 4 guys deserving of quality minutes fighting over 1 spot on the court.

We certainly have enough guys with plenty of experience running Prohm's 4 guard system, so it shouldn't be too difficult to switch to that in games where we need more shooting or we're getting beat up and down the court, but hopefully that's used more as an adjustment dictated by that game rather than our standard lineup or I can already picture the drama that'll cause

 

[Sigmapolis]

Assuming all 4 of our bigs go through the full compliment of offseason workouts without any injuries/extracurricular issues, I think our best option is to have 3 guards and 2 bigs be our standard starting lineup and we can adapt based on how each game dictates.

With Conditt being a true freshman, Lard's suspension/injuries, and Solomon's injury, there's been little to no issue with team chemistry this year, but if all 4 come into next year at full strength looking to prove something, team chemistry could become a big issue with 4 guys deserving of quality minutes fighting over 1 spot on the court.

We certainly have enough guys with plenty of experience running Prohm's 4 guard system, so it shouldn't be too difficult to switch to that in games where we need more shooting or we're getting beat up and down the court, but hopefully that's used more as an adjustment dictated by that game rather than our standard lineup or I can already picture the drama that'll cause

Prohm seems adverse to "toggling" (e.g., substantially changing the style/system out there at any given time, if only through personnel changes) this season.

I liked what we did during the 2016-2017 season. Our base lineup was 4/1 with Burton at the 4, but there were times we put a more traditional big like Bowie out at the 4. There were also times where we said screw this, put Burton at the 5, put Nick or Donovan out there as a fifth guard, turned on the afterburners, and whatever happened happened.

That lineup almost won us the game against Purdue in Milwaukee. Our 4/1 works well, but it can also go kind of stale 100% of the time. I have always wondered what we might look like this season with Shayok or THT at the 5 with the order being "ludicrous speed, go!"

How would a 5/0 this season work with THT and Shayok as the 4-5?

A good coach recruits to his system but, once he has the roster that he has, adapts his system to his personnel. I would hope we would be a little more flexible next year.

 

[State43]

If Lard had the focus for it, he is athletic enough to play a small forward role. If he focused on his offensive game intensely, it would be a sight to see. I can’t help thinking how this team will struggle if Lard/Jacobson/young/Conditt are the only guys on the court over 6’5”. If we think it’s bad for rebounding now, next year will be a disaster.