I think it's a question of legally what CAN they do. I think the courts seem to be suggesting that efforts by the NCAA to limit NIL will be illegal.
Yeah, I find it hard to believe a school like Florida is going to willingly accept a penalty based, not on direct evidence, but on what the NCAA believes, circumstantially, to have happened with a collective that they have no subpoena power over, and is not directly affiliated with the school, in a legal way.
That's the kind of thing that will end up in court in no time. The NCAA will get punched in the mouth, and it will slink away, still making tough guy poses the whole time. Wash, rinse, repeat.