We will be inconsistent offensively with the 4g system. 2 good games shooting, then 1 bad. We are not going to have 6 consecutive games of hot outside shooting against high caliber opponents on the road. We've already lost 2 games at home to unranked teams. IMO our ceiling will be sweet 16 and top 16 ranking.
Magic eight - SI picks ISU as one of 8 that could win it all
- Thread starter drmwevr08
- Start date
Bolded is really what some need to realize.
Win a few more games over the next month, get in the tourney and let it fly. Heck they might play a really good game in the first round and still get beat by a lower seed.
At least they don't have us ranked 9th.
All I know is this has been the longest week without basketball ever. Nothing sucks more than losing the way we did and having to think about it an entire week before you play again. Seems like our last win was a year ago.
One of these days we’ll have a good team get a great draw. Like last year’s KSU run, or Baylor twice getting a 14-11-10 path to the Eight Eight.
If that Royce team had been more consistent to get a better seed and play anyone but UK, it had the ability. 2013-14 was befuddled by injury. 2014-15 had the ability, but choked while Fred was dreaming of Chicago.
Although losing Young hurts, this team has the pieces to have a great March.
If that Royce team had been more consistent to get a better seed and play anyone but UK, it had the ability. 2013-14 was befuddled by injury. 2014-15 had the ability, but choked while Fred was dreaming of Chicago.
Although losing Young hurts, this team has the pieces to have a great March.
That's because Duke also wins national and conference titles. We don't. When you have less accolades next to your name losing in horrible fashion hurts that much more.
I agree. If you have a history of titles (or at least multiple long tournament runs), it's a little easier to absorb the nut-kicks.
To play devil's advocate, though: If you're a blue-blood fan and you get bounced in a 2 vs.15, 3 vs. 14, 1 vs. 8, it probably stings badly in a different way, since expectation for Final Four and beyond is more the norm.
Michigan made the finals last year and didn’t even have to beat a team better than Houston. And that was on a long 3 buzzer beater. Our resume so far is better than theirs at this time last year. They lost to Iowa. If our teams are consistently at this level one of these years we’ll get there. Might as well be this year. I think a big thing will be Prohm having to make quicker adjustments like he regrets not doing against Purdue.
I mean I get the negativity based on up and down conference play, but you have to take a step back and look at the bigger picture here. In conference, we are designed for the run and gun big 12 and good guard play, but these teams see you more than once, study your every move, and see what other opponents do to defend and score. ISU makes a tough out for the tourney because you don't have a lot of time to do research and come up with a lengthy game plan at round of 32 and 8 if they make it. We are a versatile team defensively, can sometimes get hot shooting* and are good in transition. ISU has great guard play and has some length. Only thing they lack at times is that leadership to step up at times and obviously the slight rebounding problem. Well, that and they tend to go into lulls every once in awhile.
It's not foreign to think this team could withstand a run to even the elite eight. Prohm has a tendency to get our guys playing at a high level come March. If anyone remembers Monte's and Deonte's senior year, they started off pretty bad and we wondered if they would even make the tourney. They were a few seconds away from beating Purdue and onto KU to the s16.
This team has the talent, they just need keep focus with more intensity defensively.
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Agree. More than anything we need better luck. A majority of the non-Bluebloods that make a run have it, whether it be to an advantageous draw, or winning several close games. If anything we’ve have had poor luck between close losses, injury, and facing great teams early.
Look at our losses in the last 11 tournament seasons for ISU:
-We’ve lost to the eventual national champions 4 times in what were basically road games, two of which were our most “dangerous” teams 1999-2000 and 2011-12
-Of course 2013-14 was a dangerous team that also lost to the eventual champion in a de facto road game, but even worse, lost Georges in meaningless minutes in the first round. The one time we get lucky on a draw by seed, is the year we lose a top player and face the tournament’s hottest team.
-Losses to better seeds, many close and round appropriate (no luck on draw). We’ve lost to a #4 (by 6 points), #2 (by 1), #1, #1, #1, #2 (by 3), #1, and #4 (by 4).
-Close losses. By my count, we’re 2-7 in close games in the last 11 NCAA tournament berths. Some of that is perhaps intrinsic to the teams, but random luck is big in the tournament. Even our two horrible losses to Hampton and UAB were by 1 point. Many teams escape in those situations.
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Another thing historically that might play against us: Seeding. It might help to climb to at least a 3 seed.
History doesn’t predict the future, of course, but since expansion to 64 teams in ’85, here are cases when a team won it all without being a 1, 2 or 3 seed.
1985: 8 Villanova
1988: 6 Kansas
1997: 4 Arizona
2014: 7 UConn
History doesn’t predict the future, of course, but since expansion to 64 teams in ’85, here are cases when a team won it all without being a 1, 2 or 3 seed.
1985: 8 Villanova
1988: 6 Kansas
1997: 4 Arizona
2014: 7 UConn
How about Final Fours? I think I could live with losing in the national semifinals.
Final Four track record for sub-3's is much better (as one might expect). I could look into some specifics on that if you give me a bit.
I, too, could live w/ Final Four as ceiling this season -- probably a lot of years, unless we get so loaded and we're preseason top 5 material.
To narrow the scope, this includes only the Final Four teams that were a 4 or 5 seed, ISU’s current/recent consensus range.
Since 1985, number of teams at each seed that reached Final Four, regardless of advancing beyond that:
4 seed: 13
5 seed: 6
Encouraging part: 19 times in 34 seasons thru 2018, slightly better than once every two years.
Buzz-kill aspect: Combined, there are eight 4’s and 5’s each year. Extended over 34 seasons, that's 19 of 272 — about 7 percent.
Source: ncaa.com
Not sure that's it's worth its own thread, so here's a bracket projection from today:
https://watchstadium.com/news/stadiums-ncaa-tournament-projections-friday-feb-15-02-15-2019/
This has us at a 4 seed.
Edit- Looking at how that breaks out, I'd almost rather have us at 6. Sure, we'd play a 3 in the 2nd round, and potentially a 2 in the next, but we'd avoid the 1's. Not sure I want any part of Duke, Virginia, Gonzaga or Tennessee in the Sweet 16. The 2's are more vulnerable (Michigan, Michigan State, UNC and Kentucky).
https://watchstadium.com/news/stadiums-ncaa-tournament-projections-friday-feb-15-02-15-2019/
This has us at a 4 seed.
Edit- Looking at how that breaks out, I'd almost rather have us at 6. Sure, we'd play a 3 in the 2nd round, and potentially a 2 in the next, but we'd avoid the 1's. Not sure I want any part of Duke, Virginia, Gonzaga or Tennessee in the Sweet 16. The 2's are more vulnerable (Michigan, Michigan State, UNC and Kentucky).
I just want Prohm to beat a team that isn't a mid-major or a low-major in the tourney.
That's not good enough for me. He needs to beat Blue Bloods by double figures to win my approval.
