ISU projected game lines & % to win each game

[UNIPantherFan]

Yes, NDSU beat K-State last year with their full team AND coach. They have lost a lot player wise, & have a brand new college football coach. Doesn't get much more apple/orange than that..

Exactly, NDSU will be a different team this year than the past 3 years. They graduated a lot of talented seniors from last year's squad and as Tailg8er mentioned, they have a new head coach. NDSU will still have a good season and will likely make the FCS Playoffs again, but ISU should win by 10-14 pts is my guess.

 

[boyd]

ISU -3 57.4%. vs ND St
ISU +8.5 25.4 % vs KS ST
ISU +14.5 13.2% @ Iowa
ISU +13.5 16.5% vs Baylor
ISU +16.5 11% @ Ok St
ISU -2.5 54.3% vs Toledo
ISU +18.5 3.8% @ Texas
ISU +17.5 6.3% vs Oklahoma
ISU -5 64.1% @ Kansas
ISU +6.5 32.3% vs Texas Tech
ISU -5.5 65.1% vs WV
ISU +16.5 11% @ TCU

3.64 wins
5 games within a TD either way, could swing either way

We will do much better than that. Last year was just like having one off day at work, during an otherwise good week. Also, if the hawks and KSU played each other. We all know who would win that game.

 

[Incyte]

Are these lines based on what someone actually sees from a talent stand-point or based on what Vegas thinks they need to set them to get even money? Big difference.

 

[CloneinWDSM]

My lines for fun.

ISU -7.5 vs ND St
ISU +5.5 vs KS ST
ISU +10.5 @ Iowa
ISU +23.5 vs Baylor
ISU +16.5 @ Ok St
ISU -8.5 vs Toledo
ISU +10.5 @ Texas
ISU +14.5 vs Oklahoma
ISU -6.5 @ Kansas
ISU +2.5 vs Texas Tech
ISU -3.5 vs WV
ISU +7.5 @ TCU

 

[lakesbison]

NDSU wins 43% of time for this game sounds good.
It's gonna be a spread of ISU - 6 for the NDSU game, pro bettors like this know NDSU history.... However the uneducated gambler in NY or LA or Vegas won't know about NDSU and bet blindly on iowa state thus raising the spread to -6 so casinos get action on both sides. (Yes I'm a gambler)

 

[Haverhill]

I have a hunch for this game, but I'm just going to let it be. The first few games are always a wild card.

 

[BaxterClone]

Incyte
Other than ND St game lines are based on power ratings and do not figure in public perception.

Boyd
As for Iowa and KSU, Iowa is favored by more over ISU than KSU is favored because game is at Iowa while KSU plays at ISU. On a neutral field ISU would be +12.5 vs KSU and +9.5 vs Iowa. This yrs ISU team will be a better team than last years team. Bookmakers said this team is power rated 6 pts higher than the 2013 team. But with the schedule how many more wins will that equal.

 

[tzjung]

Why? Look at how Baylor did on the road last year.

You do realize they beat us by 70 last year...right?

 

[FreeBorn]

We will do much better than that. Last year was just like having one off day at work, during an otherwise good week. Also, if the hawks and KSU played each other. We all know who would win that game.

If that happened, it would be fun to watch. I tend to agree K-State would win. Two very different coaching styles.

 

[isu81]

Sorry, after I posted I realized I didn't mention where numbers came from. Lines based off power ratings from former Las Vegas bookmaker Chris Andrews. Home field is then factored into the line. The % chance to win is based off the line for the game, this is how Vegas sets over under. Currently offshore sportsbooks have ISU @ 3.5 for over/under

Yikes. Here, the same guy says he would take the under at 3.5 wins as one of his best bets:

http://againstthenumber.com/college-football-season-win-bets/

 

[cyclones500]

My lines for fun.

ISU -7.5 vs ND St
ISU +5.5 vs KS ST
ISU +10.5 @ Iowa
ISU +23.5 vs Baylor
ISU +16.5 @ Ok St
ISU -8.5 vs Toledo
ISU +10.5 @ Texas
ISU +14.5 vs Oklahoma
ISU -6.5 @ Kansas
ISU +2.5 vs Texas Tech
ISU -3.5 vs WV
ISU +7.5 @ TCU

Based on those lines, I would bet this way (my margin in parentheses — red ISU wins):
ISU -7.5 vs ND St (7)
ISU +5.5 vs KS ST (14)
ISU +10.5 @ Iowa (13)
ISU +23.5 vs Baylor (28)
ISU +16.5 @ Ok St (16)
ISU -8.5 vs Toledo (20)
ISU +10.5 @ Texas (21)
ISU +14.5 vs Oklahoma (23)
ISU -6.5 @ Kansas (14)
ISU +2.5 vs Texas Tech (7)
ISU -3.5 vs WV (7)
ISU +7.5 @ TCU (3)

 

[Wesley]

Based on those lines, I would bet this way (my margin in parentheses — red ISU wins):
ISU -7.5 vs ND St (7)
ISU +5.5 vs KS ST (14)
ISU +10.5 @ Iowa (13)
ISU +23.5 vs Baylor (28)
ISU +16.5 @ Ok St (16)
ISU -8.5 vs Toledo (20)
ISU +10.5 @ Texas (21)
ISU +14.5 vs Oklahoma (23)
ISU -6.5 @ Kansas (14)
ISU +2.5 vs Texas Tech (7)
ISU -3.5 vs WV (7)
ISU +7.5 @ TCU (3)

So we lose to the Dinosaur again?

 

[cygrads]

When I saw this list I thought: Wow we are favored in 4 games - excellent!! I like to think I'm a realist but my normal mode is an optimist. Funny how our different outlooks in life in general changes our perception of the upcoming season. I would rather be an optimist and hang out with optimist and be wrong than be bummed out all season and be right.

 

[cyclones500]

So we lose to the Dinosaur again?

Yeah. But who knows, maybe this is the year.

 

[BaylorHistory]

Why? Look at how Baylor did on the road last year.

I wouldn't touch that BU -13.5 line with a ten foot pole (Briles is 0-2 in Ames), but we weren't that bad on the road last year. 3-1 with wins over KSU, KU, and TCU and a loss (massacre) @ oSu.