I hope it's okay to paste this post from BaylorFans message board. If it's not, feel free to remove it. I just find the logic behind the post fascinating. It's from a poster with the username Sammy11.
I will post some commentary shortly.
I will post some commentary shortly.
This is HOW the Big 12 was destabilized from 2009 to now
Everyone has their own conspiracy theory blaming one school or the other and frankly I feel they all usually miss the mark. I don't feel that ANY single school with options deep down wanted to blow up the league after they departed despite the short-term savings of exit fees. Usually the conspiracy theories make less sense than people simply looking out for their own skin, and I feel people simply looked out for #1 and things led here.
HOW IT HAPPENED:
A- The Big 12 was formed because the Big 8 and SWC did not have the television footprint to keep up with television contracts as previously constituted in the eyes of both the Big 8 and UT/ATM. Baylor and Tech found out days before it happened and snuck in politically. So the league was doing well in all areas until 2007 saw one horribly timed move... the Fox tier 2 contract extension.
Shortly after we extended the Fox deal until this upcoming year there was a major shift... the Big Ten network became a HUGE success. This reset the market for lower rights well above what we had signed for as a league would not sell those rights away for less than a league network could project to pay. Now the previously competitively paid Big 12 was WAY behind. This led to people casting jealous eyes to both the Big Ten and SEC who also signed a deal after the Big Ten network reset the marketplace.
B- Things seemed calm and then Dec. 15, 2009, when the Big Ten conference released a statement calling for a "thorough evaluation of options."
At first this should not concern our league... but then somebody puts their foot in their mouth.
Later that month Missouri Governor Jay Nixon says the following:
"I'm not going to say anything bad about the Big 12, but when you compare Oklahoma State to Northwestern, when you compare Texas Tech to Wisconsin, I mean, you begin looking at educational possibilities that are worth looking at."
Mizzou not shutting their big yapper is Domino #1.
C- So what most fans passed off as something to make fun of OSU and Taco Tech with... CU took differently. The first domino just hit domino #2 as ESPN after the fact reported that the Missouri governor's comments pushed them to reach out to a league they had narrowly decided against joining in 1994.
CU Athletic Director stated the following:
"The governor's remarks got me going. We had to do something, and fast."
D- They reach out to the Pac10 and then the Pac 10 reaches out to CU's rumored partner in the 90s almost-expansion... Texas. Domino #3.
E- Texas feared that a Big 12 without Mizzou and Colorado would not command a decent deal and felt without that present, other options needed to be pursued. They wanted their friends to come if they moved west and Larry Scott was willing to make it happen and the original idea of the P16 with ATM included was born. Domino #4.
F- In January a friend of NU Chancellor Harvey Perlman notified him that 7 schools were in talks about leaving. That made previously content to stay NU active in approaching the Big Ten. He called Jim Delany to set up a talk that very day. Domino #5.
G- Chip Brown breaks the story in late May. All hades breaks loose.
H- OU, OSU, Tech, and ATM were supposed to be on board but those making the deal had been talking to Bill Byrne, who mistakenly spoke for the BOR who were strongly opposed to going west. They reach out to the SEC that pauses things long enough for Beebe and the networks to bring enough money to preserve the 10 teams left after NU and CU bolt. This money fixed the main issue behind UT looking around in the first place, the tv deal. Trust would have to be regained and it isn't easy to get back.
Fast forward one year...
I - The Longhorn Network is done, and while initial issues with HS games and extra league games were technically dealt with... everyone underestimates the anger that Aggies have over the way things had been handled and the absolute groundswell of sentiment towards an SEC move that had been there since last summer. Members of the A&M board of regents and big cigar donors push the Aggies into moving east. SEC comically invites them conditionally as BU and others threaten litigation. We and others refuse to waive all rights to litigation (as any intelligent entity with a potential 9 figure case would do) and A&M is stuck until either the Big 12 stabilizes, blows up, or the SEC relents on the waiver. Domino #6
J- Nobody knows what OU will do although there is heavy rumor that the OU President and Regents are fighting to go west. The rumors speculate that the Big 12 without NU, CU, AND ATM is dead in their eyes. If true, that is domino #7.
This is where we are. I will finish this when it is done but simple A leads to B leads to C... etc has destabilized one of the strongest leagues in the entire nation. The ONLY possible conspiracy I see room for is if either A&M and OU or UT + those 2 are coordinating their moves right now. I still highly doubt it though.
We will see what happens but hopefully OU remains here and we expand to 14. The next few weeks will be interesting.