That's the point. Fournette and McCaffrey are currently projected as high round picks. A bowl game is not going to change that positively, at all. It can only affect it negatively, if they get hurt for example. But neither one can improve their stock much, because it's already pretty much as high as it can get. You are correct, there are few guarantees in the NFL. But do you know what one of them is? A rookie contract, especially for an early round pick. Fournette is in position to get a fully guaranteed $15-20 million dollar contract if he's drafted in the top 10. That's without ever playing a down in the NFL. Guaranteed. The insurance policy he has won't pay him that much. (See Jaylon Smith) There is literally no career upside for him playing in the bowl game. Only potential downside. He's going into a career where shelf lives are incredibly short, and the margin for error is razor thin. Why in the world would he risk his career over a meaningless game that cannot help him?