Cryptocurrency

[nocsious3]

Interesting. So essentially it would lead to the US Fed continuing to purchase treasuries and hold them on their books because nobody wants them? Then we eventually take the same path as Japan? Ahhhh....the glory of fiat.

Does this article align with your take? I think it might.

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

I don't think we get as far down the path as Japan before it all blows up, but yes some are predicting that scenario.

 

[nocsious3]

Interesting. So essentially it would lead to the US Fed continuing to purchase treasuries and hold them on their books because nobody wants them? Then we eventually take the same path as Japan? Ahhhh....the glory of fiat.

Does this article align with your take? I think it might.

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

I don't hate Bitcoin fyi. I've owned a bit with entry around 12k ,and sold some around 36k and the rest at 59k. I've been following it since it was well under $10. It's still fiat, just issued by a computer algorithm. Is that better than the Fed system? Do I think an automated system based on rules do better? Yes. Is that system Bitcoin? I'd say no.

 

[agrabes]

@agrabes I would be curious on your take on this as well.

Ok, how about this for another bull case.

The Bitcoin Lightning network has 4 times the throughput of VISA. Plus it costs pennies per transaction. The Taproot upgrade to BTC Core allows for stablecoins to be transacted on the BTC network.

Do you suppose businesses would be interested in payment processing in US regulated stablecoins that costs 4 cents....as opposed to paying VISA/MASTERCARD/DISCOVER/AMEX 2-3%?

Despite the Recent Crypto Meltdown, the First Bitcoin-Based Stablecoin Is in the Works

Lightning Labs has announced an upgrade to its Bitcoin platform that could soon see the launch of a Bitcoin-powered stablecoin. Find out more.

www.fool.com

Sorry - didn't see this one earlier. In terms of realistic bear/bull case for I guess what I'll call the Blockchain universe:

Bear Case- Over time, BTC loses its luster as an investment asset due to economic conditions driving people toward physical goods. This takes a period of 5-10 years, while the big mainstream investors who are currently in it slowly pull out and it returns to a fringe curiosity the way it was before that first big bull run a few years ago when it entered mainstream attention. Web 3 never materializes, due to lack of public interest in decentralization, but there's a fringe ecosystem out there where it does exist in pockets of enthusiasts. The metaverse is recognized as undesirable after the first few products from Meta/FB come out and are massive flops. Pressure from Blockchain technology does lead to modernization of the existing electronic banking system, resulting in more efficient processes for payments that don't use the Blockchain but do cut some trees tape and improve security.

Bull Case: Bitcoin goes sky high at predicted and becomes a permanent fixture in investment strategies. A more user friendly way to maintain private keys is developed, leading to widespread adoption as an investment asset. Web 3 and DeFi both still fail over time. The Metaverse sees a time in the sun, but fades over time similar to something like world of warcraft as people get over the newness and go back to preferring the real world.

 

[JustAnotherTimeline]

Sorry - didn't see this one earlier. In terms of realistic bear/bull case for I guess what I'll call the Blockchain universe:

Bear Case- Over time, BTC loses its luster as an investment asset due to economic conditions driving people toward physical goods. This takes a period of 5-10 years, while the big mainstream investors who are currently in it slowly pull out and it returns to a fringe curiosity the way it was before that first big bull run a few years ago when it entered mainstream attention. Web 3 never materializes, due to lack of public interest in decentralization, but there's a fringe ecosystem out there where it does exist in pockets of enthusiasts. The metaverse is recognized as undesirable after the first few products from Meta/FB come out and are massive flops. Pressure from Blockchain technology does lead to modernization of the existing electronic banking system, resulting in more efficient processes for payments that don't use the Blockchain but do cut some trees tape and improve security.

Bull Case: Bitcoin goes sky high at predicted and becomes a permanent fixture in investment strategies. A more user friendly way to maintain private keys is developed, leading to widespread adoption as an investment asset. Web 3 and DeFi both still fail over time. The Metaverse sees a time in the sun, but fades over time similar to something like world of warcraft as people get over the newness and go back to preferring the real world.

Seems pretty dire either way for my Niang Cyclone NFT

 

[Jer]

It's not a perfect comparison by any means, but a reason I think people would use crypto (say, loans via smart contract, for a specific case) is similar to why people would buy local vs. national.

There are certain folks who use their money to support small businesses vs. national corporations simply because of their own personal preference. It may not make sense to spend $20 on something from a local business when you could spend $15 and get a similar product from Amazon, but people feel the need/desire to spend their money in a way that it helps someone in their community. It aligns with their core beliefs.

The way I'm relating this to crypto is that there is a minority of people out there who would be willing to get a loan via a decentralized smart contract just because they don't like banks or "the establishment." It may be faster and safer to go the traditional route (just like it would be less expensive to buy through Amazon in my "buy local" scenario"), but there's a minority of people who distrust or dislike the centralized approach. In this way, a use case aligns with their core beliefs.

My subjective view is that as the public becomes more informed about crypto, and a lot of the scams in the space fall away while the cream rises to the top, there's still an untapped portion of the population that will see why a decentralized approach has appeal vs. the traditional route. It may not ever be the majority or close to it, but that doesn't mean there still isn't room for quite a bit of adoption.

Really, most of the arguments that have been hashed and re-hashed in this thread boil down to whether someone is fine with the traditional system or not. I think both ways will exist in the future, but I believe one's adoption has much more growth potential than the other.

The flip side of this is that even decentralized in this model requires the money to be fronted by someone or some entity. If there is money to be made, you can be certain that the leaders are going to end up being the multinational companies that people love to hate. The storefront changes and some of the tools, but it’s still fundamentally lending and borrowing with the same players behind the curtain.

 

[Stormin]

John Wick probably has some Bitcoin.

 

[BWRhasnoAC]

I just read in an article saying even if every American able had a job we would still be at 5.4 million job shortage. Wtf is this economy?

 

[nocsious3]

Recent document from Bank of International Settlements on crypto and it's roll in the monetary system. Stuff like this is where the real news is at.

https://t.co/tQCYIhNViP

 

[JustAnotherTimeline]

The flip side of this is that even decentralized in this model requires the money to be fronted by someone or some entity. If there is money to be made, you can be certain that the leaders are going to end up being the multinational companies that people love to hate. The storefront changes and some of the tools, but it’s still fundamentally lending and borrowing with the same players behind the curtain.

I don't follow the issue here? All participants are subject to the same terms and contracts. In other words, I can make the same yield as "insert hated entity".

 

[JustAnotherTimeline]

I don't hate Bitcoin fyi. I've owned a bit with entry around 12k ,and sold some around 36k and the rest at 59k. I've been following it since it was well under $10. It's still fiat, just issued by a computer algorithm. Is that better than the Fed system? Do I think an automated system based on rules do better? Yes. Is that system Bitcoin? I'd say no.

Not to be nitpicky, but fiat is by definition government issued currency. Bitcoin is not fiat.

So if you think an automatic system does rules better what do you envision as a solution? Would it be under global authority, or decentralized?

 

[BCClone]

I just read in an article saying even if every American able had a job we would still be at 5.4 million job shortage. Wtf is this economy?

A lot of the 60 year old plus people who in the past could retire but worked, for whatever reason, have decided they don't want to work. At least the ones I know. In the past, people I knew who retired would at least hold part time jobs somewhere but that isn't happening. Covid may have had a big influence there, don't want to chance it. Several of these people did it to be social and get out, but WFH stopped some of it also.

 

[BryceC]

Interesting. So essentially it would lead to the US Fed continuing to purchase treasuries and hold them on their books because nobody wants them? Then we eventually take the same path as Japan? Ahhhh....the glory of fiat.

Does this article align with your take? I think it might.

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Zerohedge has been banging the "WE'RE DOOMED" drum for like 20 years now.

 

[JustAnotherTimeline]

Recent document from Bank of International Settlements on crypto and it's roll in the monetary system. Stuff like this is where the real news is at.

https://t.co/tQCYIhNViP

Thanks for sharing. I have a few thoughts.

1. First of all Bitcoin and crypto are not interchangeable terms. The chart on table 4 is misleading and not correct. Bitcoin can satisfy ALL of the parameters they set for the monetary "vision" except price stability (which it should stabilize more over time naturally). All without a global electronic monetary dictatorship. They are painting the picture with defi because it fits the agenda. It's obvious.

2. Page 18 is frightening to me. I don't understand how anyone would want to live under something like this.

 

[JustAnotherTimeline]

Zerohedge has been banging the "WE'RE DOOMED" drum for like 20 years now.

Interesting. I am not familiar. I only shared it to try and understand what @nocsious3 has been referring to.

Maybe they will be right at some point, lol?

To his point, Japan does seem to be unwinding right now.

 

[BryceC]

Interesting. I am not familiar. I only shared it to try and understand what @nocsious3 has been referring to.

Maybe they will be right at some point, lol?

To his point, Japan does seem to be unwinding right now.

Of course he'll be right some time. But the dude running that has literally been saying MMT is over for 20 years.

 

[CloneIce]

I just read in an article saying even if every American able had a job we would still be at 5.4 million job shortage. Wtf is this economy?

To make that math work out, it Seems like we need more immigrants to come here to work.

 

[JustAnotherTimeline]

VYGVF down massive today. Looks like 3AC going to default on a bunch of BTC and USDC. The unwind continues.

 

[Cyclonepride]

Fear? It depends on what it is.

On the Japan issue, they aren't the reserve currency so they have a bit more slack than the US. What's changed is that if they can't hold the peg, they aren't just printing to keep their head above water. If rates rise even a little bit, they have to print trillions to serve the debt. That's hyper inflation expansion of the money supply.

The US isn't far behind but they have tighter constraints ,as the whole world owns gobs of our bonds. They make stuff and we export dollars. There is no incentive for foreign countries to sell us stuff in exchange for dollars, and then park those dollars in US treasuries.

The are losing money hand over fist now because the bond yield is 3.2 % but they are losing at least 6% annually to inflation. Normally the Fed would just jack rates to 15% like Volker did in the early 80,s but they can't because the recession would be catastrophic. The whole system is built on new debt creation. When you can't lend to anyone because there's not enough profitable loans to be made, a debt based monetary system collapses. The 2008 crisis was a debt crisis but the just managed to move it onto the books of the various central banks. There is no place left to punt off the debt.

The US can't raise much because it will kill the remaining economic activity. They can't ease as the the inflation will make it so nobody finances our debt. Impasse.

That's a trap of their own making. When it reaches its inevitable conclusion, it will be catastrophic, but the good news is that healthy growth will be allowed back into the equation.

 

[besserheimerphat]

 

[cyclone1209]

All I know is seeing a lot of crypto based hedge funds go under recently makes me think a bottom could be coming in soon.

But a lot of the crypto exchanges last week that shut off withdrawals to customers, that is fairly unethical and I bet a 1,000 lawsuits come about due to that. It's an unstable place right now for sure.

I can't justify any significant part of my portfolio to crypto because what utility does it have? Internally it's almost set up as a multi level marketing scheme.