What I’m getting at is that I don’t see how it could be “baked in” when the price is fluctuating like crazy. So what is the baked in price, or what sort of discount is being applied now with the knowledge these coins are coming? How do you even know the big players have factored this in?
From my quick googling, there are lots of crypto sites warning that a price dump could happen when these coins hit the market.
And why are you comparing BTC to stocks? I thought it was supposed to be a currency.
Market movers are aware of Mt. Gox. This is not a surprise to market participants. Therefore, trading right now reflects the possibility that approx 150k worth of BTC will be released starting next month into the market. It doesn't mean that a drop in price couldn't happen, but I think the threat is overblown and typical bear market fear.
For reference, just a few months ago, Luna Foundation sold 80,000 BTC into the market from its reserves in order to defend the Terra USD peg. That 80k dump was absorbed and the price action was largely unaffected. Also there is no reason to believe all 150k btc would be sold. Some people will hold for better prices. Also, the sell pressure will not hit the market all at once.
If there is a dump, it will be from retail fear, not actual supply shock. In my opinion.
I am comparing it's price action to a stock.