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Coronavirus Coronavirus: In-Iowa General Discussion (Not Limited)

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flycy

flycy

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Jul 17, 2008
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GrappleCy said:
Except for, you know, all the dead people. Staying under the max hospital beds is better than not staying under the max hospital beds but eradicating it is way better than just having it burn slowly through the whole population.
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Yeah, I mean look how we eradicated the flu. Stop this eradicate fantasy, not even the point of all the shut downs, it was meant to slow the spread not limit it at all. Even the experts will tell you they expect the same number of people to be exposed given enough time. It really turned out to be quite pointless most places as hospitals sat empty for the last 6 weeks in 95% of the country. (I'm sure they are already screaming for bail outs due to lack of revenue from no patients) Ironically now that some small measures may be reasonable because there are actually a few cases locally, everything opens up because everyone is so sick of the lock down. Even in chemical warfare it is acknowledge that you can't maintain the highest level of response for very long, same thing here. And if I here stay inside stay safe from one more celebrity I'm going to puke. Viruses recede in the summer because everyone is outside exposed to the sunlight with natural distancing due to space.
 
Rabbuk

Rabbuk

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Mar 1, 2011
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flycy said:
There isn't evidence that stay out home "flattens the curve."
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I think there is pretty decent data from the Spanish flu that it does in fact work between Philly and St. Louis. This statement seems wildly false.
 
Cyientist

Cyientist

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Aug 18, 2013
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I enjoy reading Slavitt’s material. He does suggest we lowered the R0 to 1 which means we temporarily flattened the curve. Have to get it under 1 to reduce the numbers though.
 
flycy

flycy

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Jul 17, 2008
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Rabbuk said:
I think there is pretty decent data from the Spanish flu that it does in fact work between Philly and St. Louis. This statement seems wildly false.
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Philly was also a direct stop off for soldiers returning from WWII. Its a bit simplistic to blame Philly's experience on one factor.

Large parades, concerts, with hundreds of thousands in direct contact and mass transit are quite different from "social distancing" Poor choice of name as well as it is really physical distancing.

Why is the experience in California and New York so different? They both locked down within 2 days of each other so that is really not a factor. Both are large hubs for overseas travelers, probably more Chinese in LA, Europeans in NY. I would think it is more likely California's weather and relative lack of mass transit. Most warm countries have done much better than colder regions. California may eventually end up with as many cases/population, just over more time.
 
bawbie

bawbie

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Mar 17, 2006
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madguy30 said:
Likely due to increased testing, but this 'peak' is continuing for numbers of cases anyway.

Gonna have one of the highest daily case amounts today.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
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The hotspots in the northeast are slowing down, but more other states are still rising. MD, VA, TN, GA, TX all were over 1,000 cases with new highs today. They may not be as high as the NE peaks, but it’s much more widespread.
 
NENick

NENick

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Acylum

Acylum

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Nov 18, 2006
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Rabbuk said:
There isn't even concrete evidence that herd immunity will work if people are susceptible to reinfection
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The reinfection stories out of SK and China are pretty much being attributed to testing errors at this point.
 
M

madguy30

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Nov 15, 2011
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Acylum said:
The reinfection stories out of SK and China are pretty much being attributed to testing errors at this point.
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Yeah I haven't seen much for reinfection in other areas and S. Korea set it straight that it was not active. Repeating but that makes me wonder how 'active' it really is on various surfaces.

I'm getting impatient with the antibody test thing. That seemed like a good route but has kind of lost its luster with mixed results and validity.
 
aeroclone

aeroclone

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Oct 30, 2006
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Al_4_State said:
It IS a success story in ignoring COVID.

But it’s completely inapplicable to the United States because their healthy care system has much more capacity per capita than ours, and they have universal health care.

Basically, they’re capable of letting everyone get sick at once without overwhelming their system. We are not,
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You got a link showing Sweden with more Healthcare capacity than the US? Here is what Wiki has on the topic.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_hospital_beds

The most recent number have the US with 2.77 beds per 1000 people while Sweden is at 2.22. For ICU beds the US is at 29.4 per 100k, Sweden is at 5.8 ICU beds per 100k.

Seems the US has a big hospital capacity advantage.
 
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