Coronavirus Coronavirus: In-Iowa General Discussion (Not Limited)
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Don't antibody tests give us a more accurate depiction and maybe a better data point for projections?
They're at least more useful than a general negative test imo.
Oh absolutely.
I just was not aware of their widespread use yet anywhere in the world, though. Last I had read they were still being developed and tested for accuracy.
And don't get me wrong, a model for an outbreak is just that. Subject to any amount of GIGO errors. I just was shocked that the understanding of what was actually going on would need to be revised to that degree.
So I was told about a family friend that runs a salon in a small town in Iowa, and was posting on FB that they're going to be open starting May 1. Will they be allowed to open up?
I get that the income will be hard to come by. Wouldn't it make more sense to have a Gofundme, and if enough people pay in like $20 (many would), they make enough for the time being since they're relying on other people for their income anyway?
I get that the income will be hard to come by. Wouldn't it make more sense to have a Gofundme, and if enough people pay in like $20 (many would), they make enough for the time being since they're relying on other people for their income anyway?
I was at HyVee on Monday night and they wipe down the entire area you set your groceries as well as the card scanner between each customer.
Yeah earliest I've seen is May, which I'm guessing is too early of an estimate. I actually wonder if we keep seeing these 'peaks' pushed out if numbers stay lower, then if/when mass antibody tests become available, we get a better hold of what's really happening and what could happen.
They will be allowed to open unless the Governor extends her SIP order
That's what I'm wondering. Are people allowed to open up businesses if they want to?
http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates
Every time they update the method, the publish how the method changed. You can read a complete history, from the original model up through the last method update (4/7).
Always best to wipe it down after taking it out of the slot.
I don't want to start another argument about the U. of Wash projections, but their model is very reactionary. And by "very" I mean extremely. I'm not saying it's worthless, but it's like setting a point spread for a game and then changing it every 5 minutes after the game starts. Of course then at the end you can say "See, we nailed it!" It wasn't very long ago it was predicting 3800 deaths in Iowa by 8/1.
Aren't the 61k death projections all based on the assumption that they are doing what Wuhan did in terms of mitigation
Analytic and methods updates
COVID-19 death model. Our April 5 release involved a number of major methods updates for the IHME COVID-19 death model (read more here). With today’s release, we have incorporated the following updates:
- We now ensure that draws from the predictive validity uncertainty distributions are correlated over time, a model refinement that generates smoother estimates of uncertainty.
- Based on the now multiple iterations of our COVID-19 death model, we have noticed that, for at least some US states, there are massive fluctuations in the number of COVID-19 deaths reported each day. These substantial day-to-day vacillations are more likely due to an artefact in how statewide deaths are being compiled and then reported each day than actual fluctuations in COVID-19 deaths. As a result, our reported predictions – that you can view and download from the online visualization tool – are now based on averaging the last three rounds of predictions. In other words, what is shown today (April 7) is the average of model predictions from reported COVID-19 death data up to April 4 (model 1), data up to April 5 (model 2), and data up to April 7 (model 3). We view this as an important refinement that helps to strengthen model stability and buffer predictions from data fluctuations less related to observed epidemic patterns and more driven by variable data collection or reporting practices.
The question is did you know her before the trip or are you still with her.
Late on this but I think that's a very smart approach. If our daycare and offices open at similar times, I'm debating send the child but staying home another few weeks. My guess is he may be exposed (or pick up whatever germs hes missed out on!) and then that limits us from spreading it to our offices right away.
Reportedly did.
I think it's assuming we keep it up through May, which it looks like won't happen.
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