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Discussion in 'Football' started by cycloneML, Oct 28, 2018.
And they've kind of hung around other teams.
Can't get into a weird game with them or Baylor.
So, let’s just go ahead and beat Texas?
I’ve been interested in the tendency of people here to play up opponents as huge challenges as game week begins. We saw how that played out against OSU and WVU, and people still tried it with Tech.
Seriously, folks. Without our own mistakes, the score should have been what, 40-17? 40-10? Maybe even 40-7?
Now I’m just waiting to see who the first person is who suggests just how “tough” KU really is. After all, they just won a game, right?
There are two elements to making the conference title game, the game at Texas and the three other conference games. At this point it appears the Texas game would be close to 50/50 on a neutral field, so we will be a moderate to slight underdog there. The other three we have somewhere between an 80% to 85% chance to win each (so a little over a 50% chance to sweep all three).
The odds of making the title game with a loss at Texas are extremely slim. The odds if we beat Texas, but lose one of the other three are better but still not great. (We would be helped by having the head-to-head tie breaker over WV and UT.) If we beat Texas and win the other three, the odds of making the title game are about as good as they are slim if we lose to Texas (roughly 95% and 5% respectively).
Just watched the end of game shenanigans with OSU and UT (Herman going ballistic)... When we play Texas - especially if it's for something special like conference champ game we will win for 1 simple reason. Hermann and his squad while maybe - maybe - more talented, they lack the emotional discipline at the most crucial moments and will be reflection of their coach.
It's not a clear path but it's fun that it's a possibility heading into November two years in a row.
Suppose it was like that in '04 and '05 but that was also relying on the North Division and bottom of the south division.
The goal is to WIN the CCG. Not just make it to the CCG.
We have two very winnable games coming up. We need to clean up a lot of issues if we want to head into Austin and then Dallas and burn down the whole power structure of the Big 12.
We need to just focus on getting better every week and the rest will sort itself out.
To address the OP's point, UT losing cleared away a major roadblock. If ISU wins out, ISU will hold head to head tie breakers against 3 of the 4 other teams still in the hunt. UT and TT would have 2 conference losses and we would edge them out. WVU drops one mor game and we are in ahead of them. Would need OU to drop 2 more games to edge them out.
Have to take care of KU/Baylor first but then we would only be a 7 point dog or so at Texas.
So... ISU wins out, WVU beats OU at home, loses to UT on the road, WVU\OU\UT win out otherwise... 4 way tie at #1?
I believe with the tiebreakers that would be an ISU-Texas CCG
Where was his optimism? It was just stating a fact.
I'm confused.Just because we rolled some teams doesn't mean other teams can't be challenges.
We care about 2 things.
1) We win out
2) Somebody beats WVU
Haven't seen it posted elsewhere yet, so I will just say . . .
UNDEFEATED IN OCTOBER FOR 2 YEARS RUNNING!
So, once again we are entering November with actual meaningful discussion about the Big 12 Championship game and not just about being the spoiler.
I mean, we hope those mistakes get fixed but its not like those mistakes aren't along the lines of things we've seen since day 1. We've been atrocious on special teams most of the season and teams have identified and keyed in on those weaknesses. This is who we are as a team and until we show we've fixed that should consider that in any sort of prediction on the future.
That being said, our remaining schedule is all 'winnable' games. Most of them are games we should win barring a major fuckup. Texas is the big challenge. Winnable, but we certainly won't be favored.
Personally i think it would also be fun to say we finished #1 in the regular season standings.
We'd also be the #1 seeded team after the tiebreakers in that scenario, i believe.
2 WEEKS IN A ROW OF HOLDING THE OPPONENT'S RUSHING TO LESS THAN THE LENGTH OF THE BUS THAT BROUGHT THEM TO THE STADIUM!
Kudos to Jeff Woody for this great stat a few weeks ago.
is he a total **** or what? He made Mike Gundy look like a prince
Wouldn't tie breakers go to us with H2H wins?
things get more complicated if we end up in 3-4 way ties.
And we don’t end up in multiple team tiebreaker with OU that could erase our head to head with Texas and West Virginia.
If ISU, OU and UT all finish with 2 loses, the head to head also is a tie because we all would be 1-1 against the other two.
We should win tiebreaker since our other loss was to a team lower in standings. That is we beat the teams higher in standings. So also root against TCU.
If WVU also joins the other 3 at 2 losses, that would mean they beat OU and lost to Texas. We would be 2-1 vs others and so would Texas and we would play Texas.
There are other less likely scenarios that could complicate things and keep us out, but if WVU loses one more and we win out, chances are very, very high we win any tiebreaker.