CFP Expanding to 12 Teams

[ClubCy]

b10 is a fraud conf (even as currently constructed)...

last 20 yrs current b10 teams have won 3 titles.... Mich, OSU, USC.

OSU is often the only team that can compete with the top tier in the sec in the whole conf. Yet, you have teams like iowa beating their chest because they beat up ill, neb, min, nw, purdue, msu, etc... and then get pounded by osu.

Mich has stepped up recently (may not be back for a while), and USC has had good years historically, but have not won the champ for 20 yrs and since carrol have not really been the same.

There are brands and teams that have won in the past and they will have a lot of money to compete in the future. But there is OSU and no one else in the conf that has consistently been better than top teams in the B12 (TCU beat mich in the play off 2 years ago).

Not saying B12 has multiple teams significantly better than b10 runner up every year, but b10 is suspect beyond OSU most years. Problem is brand value is significant and impacts rankings.

While I don’t disagree with most of what you said, the top of the Big 10 (OSU, Mich, Penn St) has been better than the top 3 in the Big 12.

I’m going to be called a Big 10 fan (again) but since 2014 the Big 12 is 14-20 against the Big 10. The Big 12 has done nothing to help the narratives against it.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

The BCS computer average used 8 distinct computer rankings and threw out high/low.

Do you think any average like that could possibly say the Big Ten and SEC are exactly equal at football and both are 4x better than ACC and Big 12?

4 auto bids for the Big Ten is absurd, but it shows us how predatory these jackoffs are.

2x better, the original proposal was 2 autobid for the ACC and Big12.

 

[cymonw1980]

So every conference that’s isn’t the SEC is frauds then? Michigan just won a natty beating Bama and Texas.

my point is b10 comparing itself competitively to the sec is a joke. Saying they should get 4 auto bids laughable.

The only thing the b10 competes on is $.

Yes. Mich has recent stint (one champ, one loss to TCU) where they made the playoff. Outside of that, they have not been competitive with the top 4 most years.

So, based on recent history, b10 has not been competitive with the sec and pretending they deserve 4 auto bids, or same number as sec is a joke.

I agree they are the 2nd best conf... but to pretend they deserve treatment equal to sec is laughable.

 

[Sigmapolis]

The BCS computer average used 8 distinct computer rankings and threw out high/low.

Do you think any average like that could possibly say the Big Ten and SEC are exactly equal at football and both are 4x better than ACC and Big 12?

4 auto bids for the Big Ten is absurd, but it shows us how predatory these jackoffs are.

You're assuming they're going to use some sort of good-faith model put together by independent analysts doing their best to estimate team and by aggregation conference quality (e.g., what KenPom and Torvik do for college basketball, etc.) in a systematic fashion. It might not be perfect, but those analysts generally give you a reasonable conception of team/conference quality and have similar results.

College football has a far smaller sample size than does college basketball and far less "pollination" between conferences. A few OOC matchups can dictate so much about the relative quality of a football conference to another football conference while basketball has more data to work with. In the absence of real data, you have a lot of opportunity for shenanigans and spurious "adjustments" being made.

I'm sure there are ways to work backwards to the results you want -- e.g., tell the model to give big props to defenses that hold teams <20 points ("THAT IS A POWERFUL BIG TEN DEFENSE RIGHT THERE!") and discount teams that put up 40+ points ("EVERYBODY KNOWS THE BIG 12 DOESN'T PLAY DEFENSE!").

When there's a will and a spreadsheet, there's a way.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

my point is b10 comparing itself competitively to the sec is a joke. Saying they should get 4 auto bids laughable.

The only thing the b10 competes on is $.

Yes. Mich has recent stint (one champ, one loss to TCU) where they made the playoff. Outside of that, they have not been competitive with the top 4 most years.

So, based on recent history, b10 has not been competitive with the sec and pretending they deserve 4 auto bids, or same number as sec is a joke.

I agree they are the 2nd best conf... but to pretend they deserve treatment equal to sec is laughable.

I don’t think I’ve ever said the big ten is comparable to the SEC. SEC has proven it time after time that they are the teams to beat. Big ten has a lot of ground to make up before that idea can be entertained epically for the middle class of the league

 

[HFCS]

While I don’t disagree with most of what you said, the top of the Big 10 (OSU, Mich, Penn St) has been better than the top 3 in the Big 12.

I’m going to be called a Big 10 fan (again) but since 2014 the Big 12 is 14-20 against the Big 10. The Big 12 has done nothing to help the narratives against it.

By adding the three good west coast programs, some years I'm sure the Big Ten might earn 3 of those 7 at large spots, before they added them the 4th place B10 team would have never/rarely belonged. I don't think the current Big 12 would ever earn 3 of 7 at large bids, I definitely think they could earn one or two some years if we allow this thing to be somewhat based on merit. TCU is one of the more successful teams of the playoff era (not many teams have had 4 team playoff success) and they're in a down cycle, who knows what can happen.

 

[cymonw1980]

While I don’t disagree with most of what you said, the top of the Big 10 (OSU, Mich, Penn St) has been better than the top 3 in the Big 12.

I’m going to be called a Big 10 fan (again) but since 2014 the Big 12 is 14-20 against the Big 10. The Big 12 has done nothing to help the narratives against it.

I don't disagree with that - my b10 being a fraud comment is based on saying they deserve 4 auto bids, or equal to sec... most years beyond osu they have no one that competes with the sec top tier.

I think bama/uga/tx or whoever happens to be on top in the sec (aub, fl, maybe tenn this year, etc) is significantly better most years than anyone not named OSU. Mich/USC are the only teams in the b10 that have had seasons significantly better than any B12 team in the last 20 years. Other than that TCU, Bay, Okie St, Utah, Cinci, etc. have all had great years as good or better than the rest of the b10 (good seaons short of national championship).

 

[FriendlySpartan]

By adding the three good west coast programs, some years I'm sure the Big Ten might earn 3 of those 7 at large spots, before they added them the 4th place B10 team would have never/rarely belonged. I don't think the current Big 12 would ever earn 3 of 7 at large bids, I definitely think they could earn one or two some years if we allow this thing to be somewhat based on merit. TCU is one of the more successful teams of the playoff era (not many teams have had 4 team playoff success) and they're in a down cycle, who knows what can happen.

I totally agree with you about before the pac teams, but that’s not the world we live in anymore (even if we all wish it was different) after is a different story

 

[ClubCy]

I don't disagree with that - my b10 being a fraud comment is based on saying they deserve 4 auto bids, or equal to sec... most years beyond osu they have no one that competes with the sec top tier.

I think bama/uga/tx or whoever happens to be on top in the sec (aub, fl, maybe tenn this year, etc) is significantly better most years than anyone not named OSU. Mich/USC are the only teams in the b10 that have had season significantly better than any B12 team in the last 20 years. Other than that TCU, Bay, Okie St, Utah, Cinci, etc. have all had great years as good or better than the rest of the b10 (good seaons short of national championship).

I have a strong feeling Sankey quietly agrees with your first paragraph. He won’t say it out loud but you know he looks down on the actual football product of the Big 10 produces but he needs them for leverage and the control of power.

 

[jctisu]

So every conference that’s isn’t the SEC is frauds then? Michigan just won a natty beating Bama and Texas.

Actually yes as a whole. The SEC is the only conference in the last 25 years to have
several different teams win multiple titles. Every other conference has a couple of teams do it but the SEC has had multiple teams win multiple championships in that timeframe.

 

[cymonw1980]

I have a strong feeling Sankey quietly agrees with your first paragraph. He won’t say it out loud but you know he looks down on the actual football product of the Big 10 produces but he needs them for leverage and the control of power.

leverage, control of power, and money... they bring a lot of eyeballs to the playoff. as dominant as the sec has been on the field, b10 has dominated off the field.

 

[1UNI2ISU]

One other thought that popped into my head the other day is that the change in how the Big Ten title game is determined is going to be a giant help to getting that 4th team in every year. When Iowa/Wisconsin/Nebraska (eventually)/Michigan State/insert upper middle tier Big Ten team here don't have to take that guaranteed loss the first weekend of December and are sitting there at 10-2, more years than not they are going to get in.

Hell, there's a real possibility that's Iowa this year.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

Actually yes as a whole. The SEC is the only conference in the last 25 years to have
several different teams win titles. Every other conference has a couple of teams do it but the SEC has had multiple teams win multiple championships in that timeframe.

Like that you went back 25 years to get OU in there, I would have done the same thing and I respect it

 

[HFCS]

2x better, the original proposal was 2 autobid for the ACC and Big12.

And zero G5/Notre dame? Or they're asking to expand before they get their saved seats?

For shiz and gigs, current AP with 4/4/2/2

SEC: #1, #2, #4, #5
B10: #3, #6, #7, #11
B12: #16, #17
ACC: #8, #15
(#9 Missouri highest team left out, #17 BYU worst team in)

Using computer composite of dozens of polls:
SEC: #1, #2, #4, #5
B10: #3, #6, #7, #15
B12: #10, #11
ACC: #9, #17
(#8 Missouri highest team left out, #17 Clemson worst team in)

 

[FriendlySpartan]

One other thought that popped into my head the other day is that the change in how the Big Ten title game is determined is going to be a giant help to getting that 4th team in every year. When Iowa/Wisconsin/Nebraska (eventually)/Michigan State/insert upper middle tier Big Ten team here don't have to take that guaranteed loss the first weekend of December and are sitting there at 10-2, more years than not they are going to get in.

Hell, there's a real possibility that's Iowa this year.

That actually has more to do with getting rid of divisions than any change to the championship game. The west never won and the east only could send one team. So in actuality a good team would I’ll take another loss.

Iowa isn’t going 10-2

 

[isucy86]

I'm trying to wrap my head around how a small committee in basketball that overvalued the Big 12 versus tournament results last year is good and fine but the same thing with the SEC and Big Ten in football is ruining the sport.

These tournaments are made for TV events to draw eyeballs not in any way designed to give us a true champion.

And I say that as someone who loves the hell out of Big 12 basketball.

Not sure comparing football and hoops is apples to apples when we are comparing a playoff with 12 bids vs 68 bids. One is a playoff for elite schools & the other is a participation trophy (hoops).

Nothing wrong where more than 50% of a conference's teams make the playoff like we see in hoops.

With a 12, 14 or 16 team CFP why is there a need for any Big 10, SEC, Big12 or ACC quotas? Take Conference Champs and then top ranked. If it means 7 SEC, 3 Big 10, 1 Big12 & 1 ACC so be it.

IMO the fact the CFP extends the season to late January is already a joke.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

And zero G5/Notre dame? Or they're asking to expand before they get their saved seats?

For shiz and gigs, current AP with 4/4/2/2

SEC: #1, #2, #4, #5
B10: #3, #6, #7, #11
B12: #16, #17
ACC: #8, #15
(#9 Missouri highest team left out, #17 BYU worst team in)

Using computer composite of dozens of polls:
SEC: #1, #2, #4, #5
B10: #3, #6, #7, #15
B12: #10, #11
ACC: #9, #17
(#8 Missouri highest team left out, #17 Clemson worst team in)

My man you’re behind, this is for a 14 team playoff not a 12

 

[HFCS]

I totally agree with you about before the pac teams, but that’s not the world we live in anymore (even if we all wish it was different) after is a different story

The reality that some years the new Big Ten probably has 4 of the top 12 teams (or even 5) is wildly different than the jerkoffs saying they get 4 auto bids because they make the most money. The SEC actually shouldn't stand for that, although it seems they are enabling it.

 

[1UNI2ISU]

That actually has more to do with getting rid of divisions than any change to the championship game. The west never won and the east only could send one team. So in actuality a good team would I’ll take another loss.

Iowa isn’t going 10-2

That's what I meant. Getting rid of divisions = choosing championship game participants. Clumsy wording.

I also wouldn't be so sure on Iowa. There isn't a whole lot of meat left on the bone for them after Ohio State *shudders*

 

[HFCS]

My man you’re behind, this is for a 14 team playoff not a 12

So effectively the extra 2 is the G5 spot and an at large that can be Notre Dame...although with so many high ranked SEC teams ND would have to pray the 4 auto bids is also a cap that the SEC can't get 5.

It's incredibly absurd unless it's something that gets evaluated every year like euro soccer gets evaluated.