Can't believe the team will miss the tournament

BillBrasky4Cy

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But its OK if we underperform this season, because UCONN missed the tournament and its tough to maintain a streak like we have. That gives us an excuse. Right guys?

Hindsight is 20/20 but with the make up of this years team are we really under performing? We just don't have the right pieces this year and it's a tough pill to swallow.
 

Dryburn

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I could see this team finishing anywhere from 3-6 to 6-3, but unfortunately, I think the 3-6 is most likely.

I really don't see them winning another game on the road. All of the teams they have left to play seem to play better at home, so the fact ISU might have beaten a couple of them at Hilton means nothing, especially since they didn't exactly crush anyone. TCU will be tough at Hilton, and I don't see any way that Baylor will lose to ISU this year.

This could all change if suddenly these seniors wake up and start hitting some shots, but there is no indication that will happen. This team just does not have the players that are needed...no inside presence, no rim protection, and no solid rebounders. You can't play uptempo basketball if you don't get the defensive rebounds. The biggest disappoint for me with this team is the inconsistency and poor shooting of so many seniors.
 
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CloneIce

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Currently, ISU is predicted to finish 17-13 (9-9 conference). At the best, this means that they will finish 4th in B12 which makes it very unlikely that they will not be excluded in the NCAA tournament. 9-9 finish in conference play would make me nervous and but a lot of pressure on winning games in the B12 tournament,

Fortunately, RPI is not the only metric used for seeding the NCAA field, but if ISU can steal an upset on Baylor, Kansas, or WVU I think there will be nothing to worry about (unless ISU takes on unexpected, ugly losses).

Some RPI Forecast for those of you worried about ISUs RPI:
View attachment 46333
I have a hard time seeing how ISU misses the tournament unless the season turns into a dumpster fire. Those seniors that everyone sh!ts on won't let that happen.

Why do you have a hard time seeing that? Your own post shows there is an approximately 35% chance that we don't. 17-13 and we are right on the bubble (at the very least need to win a conference tournament game to have any confidence).

Its also pretty unlikely that we win at WUV or KU to get that big win you reference. And Baylor at Hilton will be a tough one too.
 
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CloneIce

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Hindsight is 20/20 but with the make up of this years team are we really under performing? We just don't have the right pieces this year and it's a tough pill to swallow.

Watching this team play, do you feel they are playing up to their talent and experience level consistently? I do not. Yes, I really think our current 13-8 records represents underperformance.
 
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BillBrasky4Cy

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Watching this team play, do you feel they are playing up to their talent and experience level consistently? I do not. Yes, I really think our current 13-8 records represents underperformance.

Do I think we are playing up to full potential? No. Do I think we are significantly better than what we've shown? No, I don't. Here's the deal. We have a AA PG who's shouldering more weight than he's probably comfortable with. He likes to seek out his shot but he would prefer to create. We have a 5th year senior that is a nice role player but he's averaging 35 minutes per game in conference play. We have a an undersized guy playing the 4 and 5 who has zero consistency to his game. We have 2 transfers that are what they are. We just aren't built to be a really good/consistent team and that's not going to change.
 

Clones8686

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Currently, ISU is predicted to finish 17-13 (9-9 conference). At the best, this means that they will finish 4th in B12 which makes it very unlikely that they will not be excluded in the NCAA tournament.

So you are saying it is likely they will be excluded??
 

NickTheGreat

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I don't think expecting our team of 4 returning seniors led by a preseason AA point guard to make the tourney is too much.

I also think it will happen and agree people are prematurely freaking out.
 

CloneIce

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Do I think we are playing up to full potential? No. Do I think we are significantly better than what we've shown? No, I don't. Here's the deal. We have a AA PG who's shouldering more weight than he's probably comfortable with. He likes to seek out his shot but he would prefer to create. We have a 5th year senior that is a nice role player but he's averaging 35 minutes per game in conference play. We have a an undersized guy playing the 4 and 5 who has zero consistency to his game. We have 2 transfers that are what they are. We just aren't built to be a really good/consistent team and that's not going to change.

I agree with this, but the fact that we are playing below our potential still has me disappointed in the coaching job this season.

It's a little more disappointing when you put it in the context of the program as a whole. We look to be heading into a major rebuild job next year. It's fair to say that most fans have low expectations for next year and are expecting a quiet March. That makes playing up to our potential this season even more important, in my opinion.
 

Cycsk

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I'm confused by all this talk about Iowa State. I thought this thread was about UConn. [jimlad]
 
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allfourcy

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I think the 4 you listed (Baylor, Texas, KState and TTU) ISU at best goes 2-2. 1-3 is the most likely scenario IMO. 0-2 vs WVU and KU. Yikes....I feel like TCU at home is 50/50.

Actually that was what I was going to say about Okie State at home. They are playing so much better and getting wins now than when we won there. Think they'll be all we can handle, but then everyone is. I appreciate the RELAX posts and optimism, but then I remember how our home wins to Tech and Kstate were actually scary wins. Still don't see how people can determine the team giving subpar efforts, tho. Imagine nobody wants to get in this tournament and give more than our seniors do.
 

rholtgraves

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Could ISU have its first 4 game losing streak since Fred's first year when they lost a crap ton in a row? Also this will likely be the first 3 game losing streak since the Kane/Ejim team.
 

Clonefan32

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Also, the UCONN comparison makes zero sense considering they have 4 guys out to season ending injuries. Sure, if four of our contributors went down for the season I'd understand going 10-11. But they haven't...
 
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EarthIsMan

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Why do you have a hard time seeing that? Your own post shows there is an approximately 35% chance that we don't. 17-13 and we are right on the bubble (at the very least need to win a conference tournament game to have any confidence).

Its also pretty unlikely that we win at WUV or KU to get that big win you reference. And Baylor at Hilton will be a tough one too.

Made some edits as I wasn't too clear in the original post.

Simply,

If ISU is 17-13 (9-9) and it places 4th in B12 with a #56 RPI as currently projected- I have little confidence.

If ISU is 18-12 then I am not too worried. Despite the poor projected RPI, I think the NCAA selection committee would value the difficultly of the B12 and finishing 4th. Plus advanced ratings (KenPom, Sagarin, etc.) will be much more favorable than probably any RPI ranking ISU will get this year.
 

Max57

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...

Another facepalm goes out to everyone saying "Oh, don't worry, we'll get in at 9-9 in the Big 12." You do realize our record will be 17-13 overall (barring the Big 12 Tourney), right? We would have to win 2 games minimum, IMO to be on the right side of the NCAA bubble. 17-13 is NIT level. That's only 2-3 games better than McDermott level. It's not NCAA level. We have played in a lot of close games, against some really good/great teams. But we lost. And it's a consistent trend. And consistent losers don't get invited to the NCAA Tournament.

I hope as much as everyone else that the team proves me wrong. We still have opportunities to finish the season strong. We have senior leaders who could maybe get it figured out over the next month and a half, and be on fire at the end of the season. Who knows. But all we can go on, in reality land, is what has happened so far, and it's not the prettiest of pictures.

Exactly my sentiment. 9-9 17-13 and barring a good Big XII tourney, we're looking squarely at an NIT bid. The good news? A home game in the NIT is virtual lock.
 

Dingus

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For both the basketball program's and Prohm's sakes, I hope his first order of business is ensuring that Young and all the 2017 signed recruits will be here next fall.
 

WastedTalent

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Watching this team play, do you feel they are playing up to their talent and experience level consistently? I do not. Yes, I really think our current 13-8 records represents underperformance.
For the first 5 big 12 games, and for over 2/3 of each current game, the tallest player on the court for Iowa St is 6-5. I think 13-8 is pretty close to where they should be. Maybe bad luck they didn't get at least one of the Gonzaga, Cincinnati, or Baylor. But that's about it.
 

Lafaester54

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IMO, the thing missing from our resume is a signature win. We still have chances with KU/Baylor/wVU on the schedule. It will need to be a night where we hit a lot of 3's but we've been close so many times this year. 9/9 and a big win we're in. Additionally, Young has got to play more. We have to have (or develop) an inside presence. If we don't, even if we make the tournament, it's one and done at best.
I would even give some thought to parking Burton inside more to have him use his post game though it would be better to have someone that can pass out of a double team to the wing.
 

Kagavi

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Thanks to everyone for the debate. Some thoughts to your thoughts below:

Expecting to go to the tournament isn't expecting blueblood success. smh

Whoa, getting excited there. Please point to where I stated fans should expect ISU to be a blue blood. "Expecting" versus "hoping" might be where we diverge, due to the inherent advantages that other Big 12 teams enjoy (cough$$$$$cough).

I had no expectations for the season, given ISU lost three pro players in the front court, including Niang who will get his jersey retired, and the two top replacements didn't make it.

With the "loss" of five players in one off season, leaving a few good guards, I still hoped for ISU to go to the tournament, but I didn't expect it. With that said, when dialed in, the team has been close in many top 25 games and they could still make noise yet!

Another well thought out read by Kagavi. Haven't been to your website lately, what are you working on?

Some other writing projects, but the answer is always Jack Trice stuff.

Don't think ISU is like the four schools you mentioned. I think Wisconsin is a better comparison for team and fan expectations.

Of course not. I agree that if ISU can keep a coach for more than five years, a Wisconsin-type run could be possible.

All we can hope is they all get hot, stay hot and we make a big run.

Yep. IMO team is inconsistent, but players have the potential to go on a hot run.

Nice one by Kags. When he turned the corner in his post, I thought the team he might be talking about would be the downtrodden Oklahoma Sooners.

Yeah, yikes to Oklahoma.

When Iowa State has even come close to the level of success that any of these schools have experienced in the last 30 years, you could make this argument. I think it's much more realistic to look at THIS season and THIS coach and THESE players to determine the success/failure of THIS season. I like your stuff, Kagavi, but this thread is a gigantic facepalm.

I made no argument about this year, just shared some facts and wanted to point out that even the title teams miss the tournament from time to time in the midst of their successes. As far as this season, the jury is still out and I can't pass judgment yet. Maybe ISU wins the rest of their games? Who knows.

Look at what UConn is dealing with--and they have more "talent" on their team. Perhaps Prohm is doing a better coaching job than fans realize? I can't say for sure.

Also, the UCONN comparison makes zero sense considering they have 4 guys out to season ending injuries. Sure, if four of our contributors went down for the season I'd understand going 10-11. But they haven't...

It makes perfect sense if you consider that Malou and Lard didn't make it this year. Frankly, I'm shocked Naz has played as well as he has, considering a double hip surgery can end careers.
 

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