Can't believe the team will miss the tournament

[Chitowncy]

You pretty much made my point. Bowie, Holden, Carter, Stu all have size, but they obviously lack the skill set.
When I say skill set, I absolutely mean rebounding and post defense, or a guy that can stretch the defense and make plays in the paint.

If a team isn't well rounded, with solid players at each position, then they need that one part that is above average, something that you can go to when you need points.
Morris is the best player, but that's not his style. He's the guy that distributes. Thomas is a great shooter, but he can't carry the team everytime down the floor, especially when the defense is able to be in his face at all times, because they don't need to help off. Naz is just a role player, that offers occasional offense. Burton could be that guy, but at this point we just have to say he is what he is. A freak athlete that isn't exactly basketball skilled, like the opposite of Niang.

Got ya. Thanks for the clarification; you and I were using "skill set" differently, because it looks like we both think (or maybe I think a little bit more so than you) that our current players are skilled. For what it's worth, you're right that Monte is a guy that distributes, but he's become pretty good at creating and getting his own shot now that we've forced him to do so.

I generally think your assessment about the players is pretty accurate, for what it's worth. I will reiterate though that I think the four seniors mentioned are a really solid core and if we just had a couple bigs that could produce with them, we'd be having a different season. Don't give up on those guys yet;-)

 

[cstrunk]

Iowa State has been in the NCAA tournament five consecutive years, which is a longer streak than these four teams in particular:

Louisville
Kentucky
UConn
Villanova​

All are teams that have won the national championship during the past five years. All have missed the tournament during these five years, largely due to recruiting misses or players who were one-and-done. All have been placed on probation in the past, because the NCAA essentially rewards cheating.

I wonder if it is realistic for some fans to expect ISU to have a longer sustained period of success than these schools?

When Iowa State has even come close to the level of success that any of these schools have experienced in the last 30 years, you could make this argument. I think it's much more realistic to look at THIS season and THIS coach and THESE players to determine the success/failure of THIS season. I like your stuff, Kagavi, but this thread is a gigantic facepalm.

Another facepalm goes out to everyone saying "Oh, don't worry, we'll get in at 9-9 in the Big 12." You do realize our record will be 17-13 overall (barring the Big 12 Tourney), right? We would have to win 2 games minimum, IMO to be on the right side of the NCAA bubble. 17-13 is NIT level. That's only 2-3 games better than McDermott level. It's not NCAA level. We have played in a lot of close games, against some really good/great teams. But we lost. And it's a consistent trend. And consistent losers don't get invited to the NCAA Tournament.

I hope as much as everyone else that the team proves me wrong. We still have opportunities to finish the season strong. We have senior leaders who could maybe get it figured out over the next month and a half, and be on fire at the end of the season. Who knows. But all we can go on, in reality land, is what has happened so far, and it's not the prettiest of pictures.

 

[Cydkar]

Did any of those teams miss the dance starting 5 seniors?

Old <> Good

 

[SCyclone]

Just for the heck of it, I decided to look and see what the longest current active streaks are. (OK, fair warning - this comes under the heading of you may not want to know this.)

Kansas - 27
Duke - 21
Michigan State - 19
North Carolina - 6 (I put this in because it startled me)

 

[Tailg8er]

I think the 4 you listed (Baylor, Texas, KState and TTU) ISU at best goes 2-2. 1-3 is the most likely scenario IMO. 0-2 vs WVU and KU. Yikes....I feel like TCU at home is 50/50.

Disagree.

I think the 4 listed are most likely to end up 2-2, possibly 3-1.

I'll agree 0-2 @ KU & WVU.

I'd give us more of a 75% chance to beat TCU @ home.

Then, as long as we take care of the Oklahomas at home we're in (even without winning 1 in KC, which still isn't out of the question).


Guess we cancel each other out.

 

[CYdTracked]

It's still too soon to count this team out, there was a Wayne Morgan team with Stinson that looked down and out and finished the season on a tear to make the tourney so it's not impossible.

I think if this team can get to 9 wins in the conference it probably will get in. I think I saw an article by Randy P. that in the History of the Big 12 just 3 9 win teams did not make the tourney and considering how strong the conference is this year 9 conference wins should get us a top 6 finish.

We do need to get a solid win or 2 here soon because all we have to show are a bunch of close losses to good teams if this team plays like it should this should be how they finish out:

@ KU: loss - but would be a HUGE win if they could pull it off
@ TX: win - won't be easy but already beat them once and they are the 2nd worst team in the league at the moment
vs OU: win - won on the road and is worst team in the league
@KSU: win - makes it tough on the road but already beat them once
vs TCU: win - need to get this one at Hilton!
@TTU: win - another tough road game but already beat them
vs Baylor: loss - this is a quality win we really need though
vs OSU: win -helps that this one is at home
@WVU: loss - don't have much hope for pulling off the upset here

so if that played out that way we'd go 6-3 to finish out the season which would put us at 19-11 overall and 11-7 in the conference. I could easily see us dropping 1 or 2 of those road games such as @KSU and maybe TTU or TX which worse case we finish 4-5 and 17-13/9-9 and on the bubble. Getting 10 or 11 conference wins I think would put us off the bubble and in the tourney. Hard to tell with this team they way they have been playing but we have gone through the toughest part of our schedule after we play KU this weekend I think.

 

[srjclone]

 

[cstrunk]

Last RPI # I saw was 52. Best RPI from a big conference team to not make the tournament is 49. Finish 5-4 in the #2 RPI league and we will move well above 49.

Our best friend right now is Oklahoma State. Their RPI is #37. We beat them at home and they continue to pick up wins and those can be our solid two wins against a top 35 or 30 RPI team.

@KU -
@UT
OU
@KSU
TCU
@TT
BU
OSU
@WVU

I don't see us winning more than one road game (pick between UT/KSU/TT), and it's very doubtful we beat BU at home. That's 4-5 (17-13, 9-9). It's going to be hard to get to 5-4 the rest of the season.

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

@KU -
@UT
OU
@KSU
TCU
@TT
BU
OSU
@WVU

I don't see us winning more than one road game (pick between UT/KSU/TT), and it's very doubtful we beat BU at home. That's 4-5 (17-13, 9-9). It's going to be hard to get to 5-4 the rest of the season.

You can't see a win at Tech or K-State?

 

[cstrunk]

You can't see a win at Tech or K-State?

Pick 1 out of the three.

 

[CycloneBBFan]

A refreshing change of pace. A refreshing post. My head still hurts.

 

[awd4cy]

You can't see a win at Tech or K-State?

Maybe K-State if they go in free fall mode. Definitely not at Tech or Texas. Losing all 3 is probably most likely.

 

[chuckd4735]

Pick 1 out of the three.

Disagree. We could win all three, but Im comfortable in guessing we will win 2 of those 3. Tech and KSU are starting to fall, and we get them both after they play KU, Baylor and WV back to back to back. They could both be pretty deflated by then.

 

[Clones8686]

Another facepalm goes out to everyone saying "Oh, don't worry, we'll get in at 9-9 in the Big 12." You do realize our record will be 17-13 overall (barring the Big 12 Tourney), right? We would have to win 2 games minimum, IMO to be on the right side of the NCAA bubble. 17-13 is NIT level.

To be honest, with a 68 team field, I think 18-14 would get ISU into a first four game.

 

[cstrunk]

Disagree. We could win all three, but Im comfortable in guessing we will win 2 of those 3. Tech and KSU are starting to fall, and we get them both after they play KU, Baylor and WV back to back to back. They could both be pretty deflated by then.

I mean it's possible. I just don't see it happening. You could say we might be getting deflated after two losses by 10+ and one of those in sacred Hilton. You could say maybe those teams will be reinvigorated to get back on track against a lesser opponent.

It's hard to say, these are just opinions, after all.

 

[Chitowncy]

Just for the heck of it, I decided to look and see what the longest current active streaks are. (OK, fair warning - this comes under the heading of you may not want to know this.)

Kansas - 27
Duke - 21
Michigan State - 19
North Carolina - 6 (I put this in because it startled me)

Hasn't Gonzaga made like 13 straight tournaments too?

 

[CloneIce]

THIS!!!! 100%. The fact that this team is where it's at with 6 seniors tells you all you need to know.

But its OK if we underperform this season, because UCONN missed the tournament and its tough to maintain a streak like we have. That gives us an excuse. Right guys?

 

[EarthIsMan]

Currently, ISU is predicted to finish 17-13 (9-9 conference). At the best, this means that they will finish 4th in B12 with a projected #56 RPI. Despite the supposed strength of the B12, a 17-13 finish and 4th place in the B12 and #56 RPI would seem worrisome.

I believe if ISU finishes 9-9 in B12, the worst finish would be 6 or 7th in B12. Not particularly assuring.

Fortunately, RPI is not the only metric used for seeding the NCAA field, but if ISU can steal an upset on Baylor, Kansas, or WVU I think there will be nothing to worry about however unlikely (unless ISU also takes on some unexpected, ugly losses). They still need to take care home games and road wins are BIG.

Some RPI Forecast for those of you worried about ISUs RPI:

I have a hard time seeing how ISU misses the tournament unless the season turns into a dumpster fire. Those seniors that everyone sh!ts on won't let that happen.....I hope.

 

[chuckd4735]

I mean it's possible. I just don't see it happening. You could say we might be getting deflated after two losses by 10+ and one of those in sacred Hilton. You could say maybe those teams will be reinvigorated to get back on track against a lesser opponent.

It's hard to say, these are just opinions, after all.

Well I'm confident we win 2 of our final 5 road games, but thats just me of course. It will be telling to see how this team responds in Austin next week coming off a likely 3 game skid.

 

[CloneIce]

I think the 4 you listed (Baylor, Texas, KState and TTU) ISU at best goes 2-2. 1-3 is the most likely scenario IMO. 0-2 vs WVU and KU. Yikes....I feel like TCU at home is 50/50.

I agree... if we can go 2-2 in those 4, and hold serve at home in the other 4 (not an easy task) we can get to 10-8. I am seeing that as the likely route to the tournament - I'll be pleased if we can do that... we will need to improve our play and consistency to do so. Would be both shocked and thrilled if we finish better than 10-8.