Big XII to add schools within days?

[JohnnyFive]

UC is to Ohio State like Io


UC is to Ohio State like Iowa State is to Iowa.

You don’t seem to be to familiar with Ohio, so I’ll fill in some blanks for perspective:

Iowa is 1.4x the size of Ohio in land mass. Ohio has 8.5 million more people than Iowa - 11.7M vs 3.2m. Ohio is a smaller, more densely populated state. Imagine shoving another 8.5 million into Iowa, then shrinking it by 30%.

UC is a large state school of 47,000 that draws heavily from all Ohio urban areas - particularly Dayton, Columbus, and Cleveland. Downtown Dayton and Downtown Cincinnati are roughly 55 miles apart, attached by 8 lanes of I-75.

Sometime in the next 20 years or so the government will consider Cincinnati-Dayton a combined statistical metropolitan area, much like Minneapolis-St Paul and Dallas-Ft Worth. The combined population of this metro is currently 3.2M - the size of Iowa.

I live in the Dayton metro, and it’s roughly an hour drive to a UC football game. One of UC’s top 10 feeder schools is in a Dayton suburb.

You also have to consider that the region itself is densely populated. Within an hour and a half to two hour drive from Cincinnati is Lexington, Louisville, Indianapolis, Dayton, and Columbus.

While you portray professional sports teams as a negative, I view them as a positive. They elevate a city’s status and enhance familiarity. So, a person from Dayton who pays to see the Reds play might not visit Nippert, but their familiarity with the city through tv and visits gives them
more of a connection with other things Cincinnati.

I make this observation from non-grads and non-fans who talk to me about watching a game just because it happened to be in tv.

Ive spent time in Cincy and had fun there around the campus. The Bearcat stadium is smaller seat-wise than Jack Trice but it doesnt look small when youre looking down on the field. I thought they should have been invited to the Big 12 years ago instead of West Virginia but better late than never.

As a bonus there there are a few legit amazing pizza joints downtown.

 

[WhoISthis]

You really needed to post "I can't help being an *******. It's who I am."
Please, resume your spinning and condescending fantasy scenarios.

You contribute nothing but projecting your pathetic life onto realignment. Bring something.

 

[CycloneErik]

You contribute nothing but projecting your pathetic life onto realignment. Bring something.

Yer cute.

 

[WhoISthis]

Well I’ve lived in Ohio all my life and experience it every single day. I prolly got a better handle on it than you do.

I never said Ohio State doesn’t have a much bigger following. I said Cincinnati is #2 in a MUCH larger state.

And if you’ve ever been to Cincinnati, you’d know that it’s a different animal
than the rest of Ohio. It drives Ohio State nuts that our corner doesn’t idolize everything Bucknuts.

And like I said before, UC draws heavily from all Ohio urban areas, so we live everywhere and we aren’t all Buckeye fans. Period.

How many years have you lived in Iowa?

The two are not comparable.

 

[Win5002]

Well I’ve lived in Ohio all my life and experience it every single day. I prolly got a better handle on it than you do.

I never said Ohio State doesn’t have a much bigger following. I said Cincinnati is #2 in a MUCH larger state.

And if you’ve ever been to Cincinnati, you’d know that it’s a different animal
than the rest of Ohio. It drives Ohio State nuts that our corner doesn’t idolize everything Bucknuts.

And like I said before, UC draws heavily from all Ohio urban areas, so we live everywhere and we aren’t all Buckeye fans. Period.

I think he is trying to say even if Cincy has 15% of the Ohio market at 11.7M it generates a higher number of fans than ISU does at 40% of 3.3M. 15% was not meant to be exact but to show the point.

 

[Win5002]

Judy Genshaft, USF president, blocked UCF from the Big East for years. I believe they even dropped them from the schedule.

 

[werdnamanhill]

I am curious as to whether KU is used as a catalyst in getting the NC basketball schools. Get those, and you have UVa. Does the SEC pulling in KU, great basketball, close ties to UNC, and also AAU, help get UNC (and Duke) to go SEC? Certainly KU will be flirting this idea to BIG brass anyway.

It makes more sense revenue wise to the BIG, gaining the college focused KC market, whereas SEC already has MO. Besides pay-for-play and playoff expansion, the next big change is the tournament. A huge influx of cash if it goes only to those playing (conferences at least) like bowls.

I live in Raleigh. No tobacco road school will ever leave the ACC barring it's collapse. It's not the same mindset as other schools have. This is THEIR conference. duke, UNC, NC State will never separate, and they won't leave the ACC

 

[WhoISthis]

I guess a steady stream of B12 schools actually playing in Houston will not matter?

Will more Houston eyeballs follow TT vs Houston compared to Temple vs Houston? ECU vs Houston? USF vs Houston?

I’ll admit Houston has some work to do, but I knew upfront they’d be included just because of geography and metro size.

It's the incremental increase vs the other possible incremental increases.

Will more watch in Houston, with Houston already previously in the conference, from adding UH? I would hope so. Would that be as much as adding a different city outside the footprint?

Houston wasn't really considered in the footprint, is the answer. Gundy basically alluded to it as SEC country when speaking of adding U of Houston.

 

[werdnamanhill]

I live in Raleigh. No tobacco road school will ever leave the ACC barring it's collapse. It's not the same mindset as other schools have. This is THEIR conference. duke, UNC, NC State will never separate, and they won't leave the ACC

People also don't realize that NC State is part of the UNC System. They are tied at the hip.

 

[WhoISthis]

I live in Raleigh. No tobacco road school will ever leave the ACC barring it's collapse. It's not the same mindset as other schools have. This is THEIR conference. duke, UNC, NC State will never separate, and they won't leave the ACC

You're probably correct- but what defines collapse?
I would assume Clemson and FSU leaving are requisites to that. If those leave, does the revenue impact near collapse? Are they completely immune to revenue temptations? That seems unlikely, but we'll find out imo.

 

[Win5002]

Don't think of it as a merger, think of it as an Alliance with full revenue sharing for the top8 or 9 Pac 12 brands

And you're right- the fission between the BIG world (PAC12 division included) and SEC world (likely some ACC programs) would be amazing post-season drama. Maybe that is why I think it makes so much sense haha. The ratings would be insane for a 12 team playoff of 6 BIG and 6 SEC, although it would fizzle once the SEC won 75%.

One other thing came to me about the post about the B1G looking to the ACC first.

USC & UCLA might have a hard time separating from Cal & Stanford or one of those schools now. But if the B1G poaches 4 or 5 schools including ND/NC/VA/Duke then USC & UCLA may realize spots are filling up and all of a sudden can separate from one or two of the northern California schools.

Right now the PAC may still have the idea they are getting a contract much bigger than the new B12 & ACC. Is this a pipe dream? Who knows now but we will find out pretty soon. If the PAC deal is solidified at amounts similar to the B12/ ACC I don't think USC turns that down.

Whether its important or not the B1G can always say "we tried" with the alliance to keep things similar but it just wouldn't work.

 

[Win5002]

People also don't realize that NC State is part of the UNC System. They are tied at the hip.

It depends. If NC is ready to make the move for an additional 35-40M per year and all 3 schools are taken care of I'm assuming that won't be an issue. If NC/Duke wanted to keep the ACC but NC St. was going alone to the SEC its a much bigger problem.

If the B1G takes NC, Duke and the SEC takes NC St. that won't be an issue.

Part of the ACC tv revenue issues is it has to many teams in North Carolina. North Carolina isn't the state of Texas, esepcially when it comes to football viewers.

 

[AuH2O]

Yes, if taking the top brands of the Pac 12. Maybe 22 and losing a Utah or AZ works better.

You know that cliché of the sum of parts being greater? Getting into those markets is huge for the BIG carriage fees (it is still a mostly linear model). Like adding a bunch of Rutgers, that actually have value brands though. And the Pac 12 brands value increase as now midwest/BIG viewership goes up, and they Pac 12 teams get some better time slots. This would be executed via pod scheduling, but Pac 12/BIG division standings. This also allows the BIG to keep UM-OSU-PSU from cannibalizing each other.

And I think the BIG could monetize their conference title game being the Rose Bowl.

Ideally it doesn't need to happen, but the SEC will eventually go after the PAC 12 teams that want to make $40 million more. If it isn't USC, it will be someone that wants to pass USC. And the Pac 12 cannot survive that. I think the BIG would rather make a little less and have the Pac12 preserved "as a division" then have programs continue to get poached by the SEC. I don't think they would make that much less, but perhaps the Pac 12 is that bad (and it isn't the time slots and lack of midwest/eat viewers)

Even if you got half the households in CA, Oregon and WA as new subscribers to BTN (very generous) and the carriage fee and number of subscribers bucks trends and doesn’t go down (very generous), a 22 league would get maybe an extra $5 mil in carriage fees per year. Now you are probably devaluing big 10 games vs current because ratings suggest that’s probably the case. It’s a very high risk for the Big 10 for what the upside is. I still say USC and Oregon would be mutually beneficial to all sides. Adding more than that, probably much more benefit to the team than the Big10.

 

[BearcatsUc]

I see your points about the Cincy-Dayton area. I don't know if you were trying to say Cincy has the same % of number of fans in Ohio overall as ISU does in Iowa. In Iowa I think 25-30 years ago it might have been Iowa 75/25. I would approximate the split more like 60/40 Iowa now. ISU has eaten into the fan gap.

I honestly don’t know what the Iowa/ISU breakout is. I would suspect that it’s closer than O$U/UC.

My point in posting was only to point out that UC is not a subset of Ohio State fandom, and that even though Ohio State clearly has a much bigger following there are two, separate circles on the venn diagram - and yes, they intersect.

Case in point, back in 2009, UC was ranked #4, I think, and came within a last second Texas field goal of making it to the national championship game. Anyway local station WLW played up the fact UC was ranked above O$U. You should have seen their heads explode. It was a glorious time to be a UC fan.

There are many, many people in Ohio who love Ohio State. Then there are those of us who can’t stand them.

 

[Thorongil Clone]

I honestly don’t know what the Iowa/ISU breakout is. I would suspect that it’s closer than O$U/UC.

My point in posting was only to point out that UC is not a subset of Ohio State fandom, and that even though Ohio State clearly has a much bigger following there are two, separate circles on the venn diagram - and yes, they intersect.

Case in point, back in 2009, UC was ranked #4, I think, and came within a last second Texas field goal of making it to the national championship game. Anyway local station WLW played up the fact UC was ranked above O$U. You should have seen their heads explode.

There are many, many people in Ohio who live Ohio State. Then there are those of us who can’t stand them.

Good man! Ohio State is an abomination.

 

[CascadeClone]

Pollard recently said Pete Thamel was getting info from someone who promised confidentiality because Thamel was correct about most things. One of the things Thamel mentioned was an enlarged conference(maybe 16) and flexibility of scheduling with weeknight and also late night games. I wouldn't have thought the league would go to 16 but that might be a lot of why they will get more in the new contract than almost everyone thought. BSU & SDSU if going to 16 gives two more venues for late night starts.

Also, if the B12 is scheduling with the SEC at 16. Cities with large recruiting bases are attractive spots for the SEC schools to want to play(even if they already have tons of recruiting areas).

I have been thinking the PAC and B1G would go to 16 by poaching the Big8, so you'd have 64 teams in 4 conferences and a P4. Nice and clean.

You're suggesting there could be a P5 with 16 teams each, for 80 teams? I mean, I suppose, but you would have to dig down a ways to get there. That's 15 adds I think over the existing P5. So the 4 that the Big12 is taking, and then ELEVEN more? You're going to get some hop-ons. Alternately, the B1G and PAC dont' expand and you have P5 with 73 teams? Even those last 4 for the Big12 (Big16?) get a little dicey.

 

[KnappShack]

I honestly don’t know what the Iowa/ISU breakout is. I would suspect that it’s closer than O$U/UC.

My point in posting was only to point out that UC is not a subset of Ohio State fandom, and that even though Ohio State clearly has a much bigger following there are two, separate circles on the venn diagram - and yes, they intersect.

Case in point, back in 2009, UC was ranked #4, I think, and came within a last second Texas field goal of making it to the national championship game. Anyway local station WLW played up the fact UC was ranked above O$U. You should have seen their heads explode. It was a glorious time to be a UC fan.

There are many, many people in Ohio who love Ohio State. Then there are those of us who can’t stand them.

 

[HFCS]

I honestly don’t know what the Iowa/ISU breakout is. I would suspect that it’s closer than O$U/UC.

My point in posting was only to point out that UC is not a subset of Ohio State fandom, and that even though Ohio State clearly has a much bigger following there are two, separate circles on the venn diagram - and yes, they intersect.

Case in point, back in 2009, UC was ranked #4, I think, and came within a last second Texas field goal of making it to the national championship game. Anyway local station WLW played up the fact UC was ranked above O$U. You should have seen their heads explode. It was a glorious time to be a UC fan.

There are many, many people in Ohio who love Ohio State. Then there are those of us who can’t stand them.

Most on this board have had Cincy at the top of expansion candidates for a solid decade now every time this happens.

After the 80s/90s dark period I'd guess the state of Iowa was 70% Iowa, 20% Nebraska, 10% ISU.

After getting the program resurrected in late 90s and Nebraska falling off the map I'd say it's now more like 60% Iowa, 35% ISU, 5% Nebraska. The Nebraska part is only because 70s-90s Nebraska fans hanging on, not any new Iowa born Nebraska fans.

Iowa fans still outnumber ISU clearly but the gap narrows by the year. There are at least 3-4x more ISU fans around than when I started school in mid 90s. As evidenced by 62k sellout attendance and stadium expansion for a team that used to struggle to break 30k.

 

[Die4Cy]

The ROI for a full pay to play, NFL lite that ultimately becomes a regional league, or a nation-wide league with regional pockets of interest is going to be pretty bad. Or at least it is going to be terrible compared to now. I think even the SEC schools understand this. Earlier comments from the ACC commissioner on the Big 12 suggests the schools and conferences understand the importance of broad national interest in a sustainable business model.

It's been done, this NFL lite. They called it the XFL, and it completely failed. Twice.

They are betting that starting with built in fan bases the semi pro thing gets off the ground. Maybe. But I doubt it.

 

[Win5002]

I have been thinking the PAC and B1G would go to 16 by poaching the Big8, so you'd have 64 teams in 4 conferences and a P4. Nice and clean.

You're suggesting there could be a P5 with 16 teams each, for 80 teams? I mean, I suppose, but you would have to dig down a ways to get there. That's 15 adds I think over the existing P5. So the 4 that the Big12 is taking, and then ELEVEN more? You're going to get some hop-ons. Alternately, the B1G and PAC dont' expand and you have P5 with 73 teams? Even those last 4 for the Big12 (Big16?) get a little dicey.

The problem with only going to 16 teams is how does NC, VA., FSU, Clemson, USC, UCLA, OR & UW get paid like the B1G & SEC. There would be a few other teams also but those are schools that feel they would command more money than ACC & PAC contracts.

Fans think of nice round number leagues with perfect geography. The networks and schools who want $$$ seem to be gravitating towards putting the preferred brands in 2 leagues. I actually, am thinking it might be more likely the B1G & SEC go to 20 or 24 then there is 2- 3 other leagues paid less but providing an inventory of games.

I don't like it but the 40-48 schools in the B1G/SEC get paid 75-80M and the other leagues get 35-40M. I think this is an attempt by the networks to keep the sport more "national."

If 40-48 schools broke off by themselves its not enough to support the sport nationally. This becomes a hybrid where 40-48 teams get paid more but the networks still get better quality games if games are no longer scheduled against FCS and G5 leagues.