Big XII to add schools within days?

[Win5002]

Nine PAC teams to the B1G?

It won't be 9 PAC teams, there is not enough profit for the B1G to add them. 6 PAC schools are the max IMO, and I wouldn't be shocked if we are looking at only 4 go to the B1G.

I am beginning to wonder now if the schools at the top of the ACC food chain and networks are finding a way around the ACC GOR's. Is FSU, Clemson, NC, Va and maybe 4-6 others really going to sit around and look at the SEC & B1G make up to 40M more per year? Over 15 yrs that is 600M. I think those properties are more valuable than the PAC. USC is head and shoulders ahead of everyone out west and that only really leaves Or., UW & UCLA as that good of additions.

Is it possible ESPN, FOX and anyone else who wants inventory is going to pay the backfilled ACC/B12 & PAC whether that is 2 leagues or 3 current revenues going forward to avoid GOR legislation but then expect those schools to be more flexible with respect to game times also. If CFB goes to a new division and we no longer have the FCS games, Sun Belt, Conference USA etc. the games are better and the networks might be able to afford to pay the buffer leagues in the 40-45M range all in with everything.

I don't like the unequal revenue between the B1G & SEC but I think it might be the networks attempt to keep CFB "national" by giving as many as 80 teams some type of slot in the "power football" structure. This still funnels more money to the 40-48 teams that everyone mentioned in a P48 but keeps fans from another 32-40 teams feeling like they are included.

For ISU to get a spot, I think it needs to be 48 teams in the B1G & SEC and even then ISU is probably 23 or 24 in either of those leagues. If this scenario plays out.

 

[WhoISthis]

I thought the whole B1G carriage fee thing was all but doomed in the not-so-distant streaming future?

I anticipated this response, and I apologize for not putting in the answer.
Not doomed in the 10-15 year time frame, but not the exclusive revenue mechanism. Elite brands like KU basketball will also add more value in the future. More value than some midpack football programs in low population states. Did you notice I included them? Plus the potential for revenue from the tournament, but that actually comes sooner if KU goes to the SEC.

Doomed eventually? Maybe, but these movements will likely be based on the 10-15 years given the huge unknowns past that.

 

[Cyclones1969]

I thought the whole B1G carriage fee thing was all but doomed in the not-so-distant streaming future?

You expect him to make sincere arguments?

 

[WhoISthis]

It won't be 9 PAC teams, there is not enough profit for the B1G to add them. 6 PAC schools are the max IMO, and I wouldn't be shocked if we are looking at only 4 go to the B1G.

I am beginning to wonder now if the schools at the top of the ACC food chain and networks are finding a way around the ACC GOR's. Is FSU, Clemson, NC, Va and maybe 4-6 others really going to sit around and look at the SEC & B1G make up to 40M more per year? Over 15 yrs that is 600M. I think those properties are more valuable than the PAC. USC is head and shoulders ahead of everyone out west and that only really leaves Or., UW & UCLA as that good of additions.

Do you think Mississippi St is as valuable as they are if playing in the Big 12? The conference association matters imo. Now, the BIG is not close to the SEC in that regard, but I think it helps. And it certainly helps those brands to gain markets/timezones that care much more about college football.

USC is so valuable because they are a national brand. Those other Pac12 teams become much more national as members of the BIG.

As I said, 6 may be the optimal (maximization profit) number, but not feasible (politics and scheduling).
Hopefully it is 8, as that leaves more for the Big 12 and maybe, maybe a spot for ISU in the BIG.

 

[BearcatsUc]

BYU is a logical choice with semi-national brand/religious organization.

Cincy I'm OK with. Over the last 18 or so years, they've had 5 coaches and all of them have had decent to great success. Brian Kelly, Butch Jones, and Luke Fickel all have posted 10/11 win seasons. Dantonio and Tubberville posted 9 win seasons as their high water mark. That program doesn't have name cachet, but is better than people realize. Good area for recruiting to that program.

UCF. The fact that they could be in a P5 conference and Scott Frost is not (in the near future) is good enough for me.

Not really liking the Houston addition. Would prefer Memphis which has the recruit rich Tennessee/SEC region to draw from. Memphis has been solid under Fuente and Norvell.

The last few Houston coaches did have a really great season here and there, but they really haven't outperformed Cincy in a far better recruiting region. Holgerson has not done well there wither.

The Houston area is in the B12 footprint and is the nation’s #5 media market. The B12 needs eyeballs.

This is why Houston was included. No brainer.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

The Houston area is in the B12 footprint and is the nation’s #5 media market. The B12 needs eyeballs.

This is why Houston was included. No brainer.

Let’s wait and see where Houston ranks among the new Big 12 in viewership. I have a hunch it will be in the bottom half. Market size means nothing unless you have a cable network to sell to people who don’t want it, in which case Rutgers come on down. We don’t have one of those.

 

[WhoISthis]

Let’s wait and see where Houston ranks among the new Big 12 in viewership. I have a hunch it will be in the bottom half. Market size means nothing unless you have a cable network to sell to people who don’t want it, in which case Rutgers come on down. We don’t have one of those.

The Houston area is in the B12 footprint and is the nation’s #5 media market. The B12 needs eyeballs.

This is why Houston was included. No brainer.

This is a bit contradictory. If Houston is already in the footprint, how many eyeballs are we adding? Particularly Houston has a less than stellar following.

Does using one of the 12 spots on a market we should have already had a presence in (in the footprint) bring as much as adding a program in a location in which we had no presence?

As it was explained to me, we viewed Houston as actually not in the footprint. We added a city that is in the neighboring portion of the SEC footprint. A large one at that, that has some historical ties to the other Big 12 footprints

 

[BearcatsUc]

Let’s put it another way, in an Iowa perspective but this is a hyperbole; Ohio State to UC is like Iowa to UNI. 99% of Bearcat fans are Ohio State fans, just like 99% of UNI fans are Hawkeye fans.

The question is how large of a dedicated fanbase UC can create by being in the Big 12. It was the same way in Ohio when UC was in the Big East, but granted even though that was considered a power conference…it always felt G5. Times have changed, and UC has improved, but they are a project. A solid add, yes, but a project.

UC is to Ohio State like Io

Let’s put it another way, in an Iowa perspective but this is a hyperbole; Ohio State to UC is like Iowa to UNI. 99% of Bearcat fans are Ohio State fans, just like 99% of UNI fans are Hawkeye fans.

The question is how large of a dedicated fanbase UC can create by being in the Big 12. It was the same way in Ohio when UC was in the Big East, but granted even though that was considered a power conference…it always felt G5. Times have changed, and UC has improved, but they are a project. A solid add, yes, but a project.

UC is to Ohio State like Iowa State is to Iowa.

You don’t seem to be to familiar with Ohio, so I’ll fill in some blanks for perspective:

Iowa is 1.4x the size of Ohio in land mass. Ohio has 8.5 million more people than Iowa - 11.7M vs 3.2m. Ohio is a smaller, more densely populated state. Imagine shoving another 8.5 million into Iowa, then shrinking it by 30%.

UC is a large state school of 47,000 that draws heavily from all Ohio urban areas - particularly Dayton, Columbus, and Cleveland. Downtown Dayton and Downtown Cincinnati are roughly 55 miles apart, attached by 8 lanes of I-75.

Sometime in the next 20 years or so the government will consider Cincinnati-Dayton a combined statistical metropolitan area, much like Minneapolis-St Paul and Dallas-Ft Worth. The combined population of this metro is currently 3.2M - the size of Iowa.

I live in the Dayton metro, and it’s roughly an hour drive to a UC football game. One of UC’s top 10 feeder schools is in a Dayton suburb.

You also have to consider that the region itself is densely populated. Within an hour and a half to two hour drive from Cincinnati is Lexington, Louisville, Indianapolis, Dayton, and Columbus.

While you portray professional sports teams as a negative, I view them as a positive. They elevate a city’s status and enhance familiarity. So, a person from Dayton who pays to see the Reds play might not visit Nippert, but their familiarity with the city through tv and visits gives them
more of a connection with other things Cincinnati.

I make this observation from non-grads and non-fans who talk to me about watching a game just because it happened to be in tv.

 

[Win5002]

If the ending point for the SEC & B1G is 24 each. I think the next big battle is over North Carolina assuming ND would never choose the SEC. I think both leagues want NC and from comments I have read NC is torn academics want the B1G and athletics want the SEC.

If the B1G gets ND,NC, & Va. and Duke (I could see the B1G agreeing to take Duke to influence NC). That leaves at most 6 spots left from west of the conference to go to 24. Also, the B1G could want Ga. Tech for recruiting but I would see the SEC offer Ga. Tech to block the B1G from going that far south. If the B1G is limited to 6 more teams I think USC, UCLA,OR. and UW are 4. Who gets the final 2 out of Cal or Stanford, Col., KU, ISU(I think the chances are slim)? This is why I think its hard for ISU to get a spot in the B1G. If NC chose the SEC the only possible school I see the B1G taking from the ACC is Va. I doubt they take Duke with Va. or NC St. with Va. if they lose out on NC. So then the B1G has 9 spots if Va. is taken alone.

The spots in the SEC on the other hand are interesting if they lose out on NC. I think FSU & Clemson are no brainers. I think they would take Va. Tech and NC St. also but that still leaves 4 spots. I think KU & ISU could have a better chance at the SEC in this scenario. There are no obvious picks for the SEC final 4 schools. If the B1G got most of the academic additions the SEC might want to elevate its academic profile, ISU & KU are two new states and they fit in well as geographic partners for Missouri and OU. Even though ISU is playing very good football right now, long term the SEC might want some perceived easier wins for their schools.

Some ISU fans that really want the B1G might think this is anti-ISU which it isn't. The SEC exposure might give ISU an advantage over Iowa going forward with respect to football recruiting. I think the B1G really blew it by not getting OU & UT, they needed access to Texas.

 

[WhoISthis]

UC is to Ohio State like Io


UC is to Ohio State like Iowa State is to Iowa.

You don’t seem to be to familiar with Ohio, so I’ll fill in some blanks for perspective:

Stop right there. You came here to enlighten, but you are coming from a position of ignorance.

Having lived in both, this is false. There is a reason in that massive state and metro area you don't have any fans.

Ohio is nearly completely Ohio St, and BIG second.
Iowa has an advantage in the state, but it is WAY more even than UC/OSU, and when NU was in the Big 12, the state was not all BIG like Ohio is.

UCF has a much better chance of achieving the dynamic here in Iowa. Maybe even Houston, given the transient population in that state/city.

 

[Win5002]

UC is to Ohio State like Io


UC is to Ohio State like Iowa State is to Iowa.

You don’t seem to be to familiar with Ohio, so I’ll fill in some blanks for perspective:

Iowa is 1.4x the size of Ohio in land mass. Ohio has 8.5 million more people than Iowa - 11.7M vs 3.2m. Ohio is a smaller, more densely populated state. Imagine shoving another 8.5 million into Iowa, then shrinking it by 30%.

UC is a large state school of 47,000 that draws heavily from all Ohio urban areas - particularly Dayton, Columbus, and Cleveland. Downtown Dayton and Downtown Cincinnati are roughly 55 miles apart, attached by 8 lanes of I-75.

Sometime in the next 20 years or so the government will consider Cincinnati-Dayton a combined statistical metropolitan area, much like Minneapolis-St Paul and Dallas-Ft Worth. The combined population of this metro is currently 3.2M - the size of Iowa.

I live in the Dayton metro, and it’s roughly an hour drive to a UC football game. One of UC’s top 10 feeder schools is in a Dayton suburb.

You also have to consider that the region itself is densely populated. Within an hour and a half to two hour drive from Cincinnati is Lexington, Louisville, Indianapolis, Dayton, and Columbus.

While you portray professional sports teams as a negative, I view them as a positive. They elevate a city’s status and enhance familiarity. So, a person from Dayton who pays to see the Reds play might not visit Nippert, but their familiarity with the city through tv and visits gives them
more of a connection with other things Cincinnati.

I make this observation from non-grads and non-fans who talk to me about watching a game just because it happened to be in tv.

I see your points about the Cincy-Dayton area. I don't know if you were trying to say Cincy has the same % of number of fans in Ohio overall as ISU does in Iowa. In Iowa I think 25-30 years ago it might have been Iowa 75/25. I would approximate the split more like 60/40 Iowa now. ISU has eaten into the fan gap.

 

[BearcatsUc]

This is a bit contradictory. If Houston is already in the footprint, how many eyeballs are we adding? Particularly Houston has a less than stellar following.

Does using one of the 12 spots on a market we should have already had a presence in (in the footprint) bring as much as adding a program in a location in which we had no presence?

As it was explained to me, we viewed Houston as actually not in the footprint. We added a city that is in the neighboring portion of the SEC footprint. A large one at that, that has some historical ties to the other Big 12 footprints

I guess a steady stream of B12 schools actually playing in Houston will not matter?

Will more Houston eyeballs follow TT vs Houston compared to Temple vs Houston? ECU vs Houston? USF vs Houston?

I’ll admit Houston has some work to do, but I knew upfront they’d be included just because of geography and metro size.

 

[CycloneErik]

Stop right there. You came here to enlighten, but you are coming from a position of ignorance.

Having lived in both, this is false. There is a reason in that massive state and metro area you don't have any fans.

Ohio is nearly completely Ohio St, and BIG second.
Iowa has an advantage in the state, but it is WAY more even than UC/OSU, and when NU was in the Big 12, the state was not all BIG like Ohio is.

UCF has a much better chance of achieving the dynamic here in Iowa. Maybe even Houston, given the transient population in that state/city.

I enjoy watching you spin in circles, but there's no reason to be an ass to the guy who explained information about Cincy that nobody here would know.

 

[Rods79]

I enjoy watching you spin in circles, but there's no reason to be an ass to the guy who explained information about Cincy that nobody here would know.

There are quite a few people on here that would know.

…although it is interesting to hear from a dedicated Bearcat fan.

 

[Win5002]

I guess a steady stream of B12 schools actually playing in Houston will not matter?

Will more Houston eyeballs follow TT vs Houston compared to Temple vs Houston? ECU vs Houston? USF vs Houston?

I’ll admit Houston has some work to do, but I knew upfront they’d be included just because of geography and metro size.

I wanted more viewers but TT/ UH had 830K viewers Sat. night in a year where I don't think either school is expected to do that well. BTW, BSU vs UCF had 930K viewers on a night with less competition.

I could be wrong but I think the instate Texas games mean that Houston adds more than Temple, ECU and USF. States that have instate rivalry games build interest both in viewers and also media coverage. The 4 schools IMO build a synergy.

USF might get in if the league goes to 16 as Thamel says. Although, there is some bad blood between UCF & USF and UCF might initially be blocking USF. There was some twitter quotes from O'Leary saying USF deserved being left out.

 

[WhoISthis]

If the ending point for the SEC & B1G is 24 each. I think the next big battle is over North Carolina assuming ND would never choose the SEC. I think both leagues want NC and from comments I have read NC is torn academics want the B1G and athletics want the SEC.

If the B1G gets ND,NC, & Va. and Duke (I could see the B1G agreeing to take Duke to influence NC). That leaves at most 6 spots left from west of the conference to go to 24. Also, the B1G could want Ga. Tech for recruiting but I would see the SEC offer Ga. Tech to block the B1G from going that far south. If the B1G is limited to 6 more teams I think USC, UCLA,OR. and UW are 4. Who gets the final 2 out of Cal or Stanford, Col., KU, ISU(I think the chances are slim)? This is why I think its hard for ISU to get a spot in the B1G. If NC chose the SEC the only possible school I see the B1G taking from the ACC is Va. I doubt they take Duke with Va. or NC St. with Va. if they lose out on NC. So then the B1G has 9 spots if Va. is taken alone.

The spots in the SEC on the other hand are interesting if they lose out on NC. I think FSU & Clemson are no brainers. I think they would take Va. Tech and NC St. also but that still leaves 4 spots. I think KU & ISU could have a better chance at the SEC in this scenario. There are no obvious picks for the SEC final 4 schools. If the B1G got most of the academic additions the SEC might want to elevate its academic profile, ISU & KU are two new states and they fit in well as geographic partners for Missouri and OU. Even though ISU is playing very good football right now, long term the SEC might want some perceived easier wins for their schools.

Some ISU fans that really want the B1G might think this is anti-ISU which it isn't. The SEC exposure might give ISU an advantage over Iowa going forward with respect to football recruiting. I think the B1G really blew it by not getting OU & UT, they needed access to Texas.

I am curious as to whether KU is used as a catalyst in getting the NC basketball schools. Get those, and you have UVa. Does the SEC pulling in KU, great basketball, close ties to UNC, and also AAU, help get UNC (and Duke) to go SEC? Certainly KU will be flirting this idea to BIG brass anyway.

It makes more sense revenue wise to the BIG, gaining the college focused KC market, whereas SEC already has MO. Besides pay-for-play and playoff expansion, the next big change is the tournament. A huge influx of cash if it goes only to those playing (conferences at least) like bowls.

 

[WhoISthis]

I enjoy watching you spin in circles, but there's no reason to be an ass to the guy who explained information about Cincy that nobody here would know.

I enjoy your tears, but stop being an idiot.

He didn't explain anything but except he's never left the UC campus.

 

[BearcatsUc]

Stop right there. You came here to enlighten, but you are coming from a position of ignorance.

Having lived in both, this is false. There is a reason in that massive state and metro area you don't have any fans.

Ohio is nearly completely Ohio St, and BIG second.
Iowa has an advantage in the state, but it is WAY more even than UC/OSU, and when NU was in the Big 12, the state was not all BIG like Ohio is.

UCF has a much better chance of achieving the dynamic here in Iowa. Maybe even Houston, given the transient population in that state/city.

Well I’ve lived in Ohio all my life and experience it every single day. I prolly got a better handle on it than you do.

I never said Ohio State doesn’t have a much bigger following. I said Cincinnati is #2 in a MUCH larger state.

And if you’ve ever been to Cincinnati, you’d know that it’s a different animal
than the rest of Ohio. It drives Ohio State nuts that our corner doesn’t idolize everything Bucknuts.

And like I said before, UC draws heavily from all Ohio urban areas, so we live everywhere and we aren’t all Buckeye fans. Period.

Besides, if there weren’t UC fans here, why does the Rally House in my Dayton suburb have a UC display in its window? And why was I able to buy a couple UC shirts at the Meijer near my house? I buy a couple there every year.

 

[CycloneErik]

I enjoy your tears, but stop being an idiot.

He didn't explain anything but except he's never left the UC campus.

You really needed to post "I can't help being an *******. It's who I am."
Please, resume your spinning and condescending fantasy scenarios.

 

[WhoISthis]

I wanted more viewers but TT/ UH had 830K viewers Sat. night in a year where I don't think either school is expected to do that well. BTW, BSU vs UCF had 930K viewers on a night with less competition.

I could be wrong but I think the instate Texas games mean that Houston adds more than Temple, ECU and USF. States that have instate rivalry games build interest both in viewers and also media coverage. The 4 schools IMO build a synergy.

USF might get in if the league goes to 16 as Thamel says. Although, there is some bad blood between UCF & USF and UCF might initially be blocking USF. There was some twitter quotes from O'Leary saying USF deserved being left out.

Judy Genshaft, USF president, blocked UCF from the Big East for years. I believe they even dropped them from the schedule.