Big 12 tournament matchup vs Baylor

[besserheimerphat]

If two teams are fairly evenly matched, it's unlikely for either to win 3 times. The win probability has to be about 80% for one team before they have a greater than 50% chance of winning all three games. Does anyone think Baylor has been 80%+ to win the first two games?

 

[besserheimerphat]

The hard part is that stat likely includes a good number of games where the winning team was a definite favorite all 3 times. So the odds were strongly that it would go that way.

Probably harder to find data, but id be interested in seeing it in games where the games were both close the first 2 games.

I'd guess that would be closer to a coin flip on the third game, as both of the prior games were basically a coin flip as well.

In CBB, two teams would only play a third time in a conference tournament. Teams that went 2-0 against several opponents are likely to be high seeds and higher quality teams. Teams that went 0-2 against several opponents are likely to be low seeds and lower quality teams. When a really good team plays a really bad team, which is often the case in early rounds of conference tourneys, then there is a reasonable expectation that they go 3-0/0-3.

The really good team needs to be a 90% favorite in each game to have a 73% chance of going 3-0 against another team.

 

[Cyched]

I was told there would be no math

 

[rochclone]

Baylor is playing pretty poorly down the stretch as well minus 10 minutes against Texas

 

[CyclonePigskin]

The way we beat Baylor is having everyone crashing the boards when Baylor shoots the ball. We like to have one or both guards leak out, so we can start the break. We cannot do it against the Bears.

Baylor will throw up poor shots figuring they will get the rebound, they have done it both times we have played them. We need to stop worrying about trying to get fast break points and stress defensive rebounds the next few days in practice.

We also can not settle for quick 3 point shots, move the ball, and do not be afraid to attack the hoop, we will get fouled and be shooting free throws most of the game, if we do.

If we revert back to bring the ball down and throw up a three, unless we are shooting like we did against KU at home, we will be in trouble.

Start Wigginton in place of Haliburton for his offense and especially his rebounding, but also for his aggressive play. The long season seems to have worn Haliburton down, or maybe he’s lost confidence in his shot or maybe the conference caught up with his game after the first go-around. His shyness about shooting enables defenses to focus on bigger Cyclone offensive threats. It seems to me that our offense works best with three initiators on the floor, Shayock, Horton-Tucker and Wigginton, and Jacobson in the post.

 

[spitfyr36]

Wv beat us twice in 2016(??) And we smoked them in the bog12 tourney. I think its about a 50/50 split given the previous games

 

[Halincandenza]

They are going to have to try everything they can to keep Baylor off the offensive glass. I also think they need to try to push tempo every chance they get but they probably won't. I think if ISU wins it will because they go off from 3.

 

[Cyclonepride]

They are going to have to try everything they can to keep Baylor off the offensive glass. I also think they need to try to push tempo every chance they get but they probably won't. I think if ISU wins it will because they go off from 3.

I disagree with the latter. If you look at the first two, both are wins without the put backs, and we didn't shoot particularly well (but not horrendously so) in either one (7-18 down there, 8-23 here).

 

[Cychl82]

If our boys can find a way to win this one I would be ecstatic about the possible

Baylor will whip ISU on the glass. They’ll send everyone to offensive boards. ISU will simply let it happen like always

It's terrible to watch too. The last Baylor game I thought I was going to break my TV watching Jacobson give up back to back offensive boards to Gillespie and then the other one that had the ball bounce between 3 of our guys and a Baylor player scooped it up and scored.

 

[Halincandenza]

I disagree with the latter. If you look at the first two, both are wins without the put backs, and we didn't shoot particularly well (but not horrendously so) in either one (7-18 down there, 8-23 here).

Problem is I don't see ISU suddenly becoming a great rebounding team so that is why I think they are going to need to offset it in some way, which is by hitting a ton of 3s.

 

[ZB4CY]

Baylor must be destroyed.

 

[cycfan1]

I heard a Vegas bookie on the radio this week that claimed 70% of teams that lose the first two meetings will also lose the third meeting.

We had this same discussion two years ago in the 4 vs. 5 game against OSU except we were 2-0.

Yes, the first two matchups were close which likely means the third will as well. An offensive rebound here or a turnover there will decide the game.

Be curious to know how this looks when you look at relatively evenly matched teams.

 

[WalkingCY]

Just ******* win. Put up or shut up time.

Go Cyclones!

 

[tim_redd]

This is from 2 years ago, but...

So 26% of the time it is hard to beat a team 3 times.

 

[Stewo]

We're not built (right now) to beat teams like Baylor and Baylor is built to beat teams like ISU. No way on Earth am I going to predict ISU will win, but they can win. It's going to take their best defensive rebounding performance of the year to do it, though.

 

[CascadeClone]

I'd play Conditt as much as he can take. Better rebounder than Lard, who is always out of position due to trying to block shots. Although, I suspect Lard has played his last minutes for ISU already...

Agree with having everyone crash the boards like crazy, we dont' fast break off missed shots anyway - only off turnovers.

I'd also give Wigg about 38 minutes, and cut down on THT and NWB. Lately Wigg >>> THT. Nick looks like he is playing on my knees at this point in the season.

I DO think this is a game ISU can win, if they want to.

 

[FinalFourCy]

I disagree with the latter. If you look at the first two, both are wins without the put backs, and we didn't shoot particularly well (but not horrendously so) in either one (7-18 down there, 8-23 here).

Right, both games were decided in the final possessions.

Baylor had a lot to do with us getting pounded on the boards, but we don’t need to be great in that regard. I think we’re fully capable of keeping them around 30% OReb.

Assuming we are past our locker room meltdown, we have a great chance at winning.

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

They are going to have to try everything they can to keep Baylor off the offensive glass. I also think they need to try to push tempo every chance they get but they probably won't. I think if ISU wins it will because they go off from 3.

If Iowa State is going to even things out on the glass we will have to table our transition game. We need to sell out for the defensive rebounds and focus on running good offensive. Rebounding aside one of the reasons we struggle with Baylor is because we try to force tempo and you really can't do that to teams that can dictate a slow tempo.

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

We're not built (right now) to beat teams like Baylor and Baylor is built to beat teams like ISU. No way on Earth am I going to predict ISU will win, but they can win. It's going to take their best defensive rebounding performance of the year to do it, though.

Baylor is not their typical long and athletic team that Drew normally has. We lost both times because they flat out played harder than we did, not because they are a bad match up. If we match Baylor's intensity we win both of the regular season games.

 

[FinalFourCy]

Baylor is not their typical long and athletic team that Drew normally has. We lost both times because they flat out played harder than we did, not because they are a bad match up. If we match Baylor's intensity we win both of the regular season games.

If anything Baylor out-smalls us. Vital is too quick (and powerful) for our frontcourt/THT. With Babb hobbled, Mason, Butler, and Bandoo can get past any of our perimeter guys, plus they shoot well- we’re often caught out of position after needing to help. Kegler is a tough cover when he’s at the four. Then they bring in a crane in Gillespie at the five. Add in out-hustling us, and Baylor gets nearly 50% of the OReb.