So, I think most of us can agree that even though things look bad right now, the best case scenario for Iowa State is that the Big 12 stays together. Even if Texas and OU go, it's still possible to keep things together. If I was the Big 12, here's what my plan would be. Granted, this is not a very realistic one, I honestly doubt its even slightly possible, but if someone wanted me to slap together something tonight to start working on the next morning to save the conference then here's what I'd give them.
First of all, I want to state that the Big 12 has a few things in its favor still. ESPN owns the rights to a lot of it's content, and even though they have other TV deals and the likes, the Big 12 falling apart wouldn't do them any favors. Airing lower tier AAC games isn't going to do them as much good as something like a mid tier game of TCU vs. Kansas State would from the Big 12. 2nd, as things stand we still have a NY6 bowl tie in no matter what Oklahoma and Texas do. That keeps us above the likes of the AAC and the Mountain West even if it doesn't really feel like it right now.
1. Keep all 8 remaining teams together. That's the big one and the one that I think is the least likely to happen out of all of these other than the last one. If all 8 are united then things can move forward. If say, KSU and KU bail for the Big 10 or Oklahoma State jumps to the Pac 12 then things will start to feel very bad in a hurry and a lot of what the Big 12 has in its favor go with it.
2. Start expanding as soon as possible. Start by sending offers to the top of the AAC. Cincy, Memphis, and Houston are easy and obvious calls. I'd be pretty shocked if any of them turned it down. I'd say round it out with either UCF or SMU. Not sure which one would be the better fit, but UCF is more competitive in football and is a new market so I'd probably lean them.
3. Once you have the top 8 committed and 4 new schools added on, I think you have enough to prove that the conference isn't going anywhere. Those 4 are actual solid adds too, which should be enough to prove to some more tough targets that the risk of joining is pretty low. At this point they should probably start work on negotiating media deals, hopefully in a pretty creative manner because the revenue drop at this point is still pretty substantial.
4. While you're doing that, there's still a lot of work to be done. If there's some positive momentum in your favor I think it's time to try and lure BYU into the deal. They could be fairly hesitant to leave their independent status behind if they don't have to but if you can get 12 committed teams in the conference and also have some solid media deals in place there's enough there to entice them most likely. Also at this point I think the Big 12 should also put a lot of effort into pursuing Arizona and Arizona State into leaving the Pac 12. To make some headway in media deals and overall conference perception I think you'll need to get someone who is already in a major conference, and there was some interest from them within the last year or so. The SEC and Big 10 aren't going to have anyone jump ship from them and the ACC just wouldn't make a ton of sense in general to try and raid unless someone shows interest. So for now it's all in on Arizona and Arizona State. Those 2 jumping ship would be massive for the perception of the conference, add enough to the numbers to keep up with the other conferences who likely will be also looking to expand, and also will help with trying to get the last piece of the plan in. You'd have to get on them fairly quickly though, for sure before the Pac 12 can lock their media deals down or start expanding themselves.
5. The final step of the plan. At this point you have 15 teams in the with 8 remainders, the best of the G5 in Cincy, Memphis, Houston, and UCF, a competitive independent school in BYU, and then a major steal in Arizona State and Arizona. The conference is not only looking strong, but actually has some good momentum on its side. At this point the Big 10 is probably forced into action and is trying steal a few more from the ACC, the Pac 12 looking at G5s to add on with, the ACC is on the defensive or trying to replace teams, and the SEC is probably just sitting back finished unless they're trying to do a super league deal. The Big 12 however, is actually looking pretty strong and united. At this point in time the NY6 tie in is probably safe since the stigma of it being the lower Big 12 schools and a few good ones from the AAC is gone due to the Arizonas coming over. However, even though they've made a ton of moves and won a lot of battles, there's still some issues they have to deal with. Mainly, revenue and new media deals. This is where you full court press the biggest dog left on the board easily. That of course is Notre Dame.
This isn't going to be an easy thing to do at all, which is why it probably has to be the last step. You're not getting Notre Dame if the 8 remainders are all looking over their shoulders to the Pac 12 or Big 10 to bail, if you only add a bunch of good AAC schools, or can't shake the perception of the Big 12 being a sinking ship or behind the times. That's why the Arizonas and BYU are so important to this scenerio. Sure, you could just stop at a few AAC schools and play for Notre Dame then to go back to 12, but the conference doesn't look attractive enough yet. If the SEC is trying to build a super league of sorts then the Big 10 is absolutely going to follow, which means the Pac 12 and ACC get forced into action too. Notre Dame isn't going to jump into a 12 team league while the rest are trying to match the SEC. And sure, the ACC tie in for them already exists but if the scenario of the ACC being on the defensive from the Big 10 is happening and you can offer better travel then I think there's a shot. Not a great shot mind you, as just staying independent is always an option here. As far as the playoff goes though, it seems like being in a conference is better than not being in one as it gives you one more game plus the ability to take a conference championship into the committee's' discussion room. Being in the ACC actually helped Notre Dame's tv ratings as well this last season. So there's some reasons as to why they could go for it. But there's no reason for them to jump into a bad opportunity, which the Big 12 would no longer be if they took all those steps above. Any issues with media rights would be pretty much solved with their additions, and the conference's future would be looking very bright going forward.
So a quick recap, here's how the conference would look with this new configuration. I'd assume pod scheduling would work the best so I'll split them into that
East: West Virginia, Notre Dame, Cincinnati, UCF
North: Iowa State, Kansas State, Kansas, Memphis
South: Oklahoma State, Baylor, Houston, TCU
West: Arizona, Arizona State, BYU, Texas Tech
Overall I think this is a pretty competitive conference that meets the needs of what we'll probably need in the new landscape of college football. The SEC will be kings, there's no real doubt about that, but this will be better than the Clemson heavy ACC and probably better than whatever the Pac 12 puts out there as well. If after all this we can hold steady at 3rd place, which is pretty much where we were before anyways, then that's a pretty massive W.
And while football is the kings, basketball wise this is actually kind of an insanely good conference. Kansas and Baylor still carry the flag but behind them you have a noted strong program in Arizona, a currently very good one in Houston, and a lot of programs that range from different degrees of solid behind them. Even some of the worse ones currently like Iowa State, Cincy, Kansas State, Notre Dame, and Memphis are proven capable of putting some really good runs together for extended periods of time.
So, what do we think? This wasn't meant to be a realistic thought process in any real way, it's more of drafting up a best case scenario plan for the Big 12 in the face of what's probable death coming for us. Any other plans or changes to my plan that could be made? I stayed away from trying to come up with exact plans for media rights because I have no idea what I'm talking about there.
First of all, I want to state that the Big 12 has a few things in its favor still. ESPN owns the rights to a lot of it's content, and even though they have other TV deals and the likes, the Big 12 falling apart wouldn't do them any favors. Airing lower tier AAC games isn't going to do them as much good as something like a mid tier game of TCU vs. Kansas State would from the Big 12. 2nd, as things stand we still have a NY6 bowl tie in no matter what Oklahoma and Texas do. That keeps us above the likes of the AAC and the Mountain West even if it doesn't really feel like it right now.
1. Keep all 8 remaining teams together. That's the big one and the one that I think is the least likely to happen out of all of these other than the last one. If all 8 are united then things can move forward. If say, KSU and KU bail for the Big 10 or Oklahoma State jumps to the Pac 12 then things will start to feel very bad in a hurry and a lot of what the Big 12 has in its favor go with it.
2. Start expanding as soon as possible. Start by sending offers to the top of the AAC. Cincy, Memphis, and Houston are easy and obvious calls. I'd be pretty shocked if any of them turned it down. I'd say round it out with either UCF or SMU. Not sure which one would be the better fit, but UCF is more competitive in football and is a new market so I'd probably lean them.
3. Once you have the top 8 committed and 4 new schools added on, I think you have enough to prove that the conference isn't going anywhere. Those 4 are actual solid adds too, which should be enough to prove to some more tough targets that the risk of joining is pretty low. At this point they should probably start work on negotiating media deals, hopefully in a pretty creative manner because the revenue drop at this point is still pretty substantial.
4. While you're doing that, there's still a lot of work to be done. If there's some positive momentum in your favor I think it's time to try and lure BYU into the deal. They could be fairly hesitant to leave their independent status behind if they don't have to but if you can get 12 committed teams in the conference and also have some solid media deals in place there's enough there to entice them most likely. Also at this point I think the Big 12 should also put a lot of effort into pursuing Arizona and Arizona State into leaving the Pac 12. To make some headway in media deals and overall conference perception I think you'll need to get someone who is already in a major conference, and there was some interest from them within the last year or so. The SEC and Big 10 aren't going to have anyone jump ship from them and the ACC just wouldn't make a ton of sense in general to try and raid unless someone shows interest. So for now it's all in on Arizona and Arizona State. Those 2 jumping ship would be massive for the perception of the conference, add enough to the numbers to keep up with the other conferences who likely will be also looking to expand, and also will help with trying to get the last piece of the plan in. You'd have to get on them fairly quickly though, for sure before the Pac 12 can lock their media deals down or start expanding themselves.
5. The final step of the plan. At this point you have 15 teams in the with 8 remainders, the best of the G5 in Cincy, Memphis, Houston, and UCF, a competitive independent school in BYU, and then a major steal in Arizona State and Arizona. The conference is not only looking strong, but actually has some good momentum on its side. At this point the Big 10 is probably forced into action and is trying steal a few more from the ACC, the Pac 12 looking at G5s to add on with, the ACC is on the defensive or trying to replace teams, and the SEC is probably just sitting back finished unless they're trying to do a super league deal. The Big 12 however, is actually looking pretty strong and united. At this point in time the NY6 tie in is probably safe since the stigma of it being the lower Big 12 schools and a few good ones from the AAC is gone due to the Arizonas coming over. However, even though they've made a ton of moves and won a lot of battles, there's still some issues they have to deal with. Mainly, revenue and new media deals. This is where you full court press the biggest dog left on the board easily. That of course is Notre Dame.
This isn't going to be an easy thing to do at all, which is why it probably has to be the last step. You're not getting Notre Dame if the 8 remainders are all looking over their shoulders to the Pac 12 or Big 10 to bail, if you only add a bunch of good AAC schools, or can't shake the perception of the Big 12 being a sinking ship or behind the times. That's why the Arizonas and BYU are so important to this scenerio. Sure, you could just stop at a few AAC schools and play for Notre Dame then to go back to 12, but the conference doesn't look attractive enough yet. If the SEC is trying to build a super league of sorts then the Big 10 is absolutely going to follow, which means the Pac 12 and ACC get forced into action too. Notre Dame isn't going to jump into a 12 team league while the rest are trying to match the SEC. And sure, the ACC tie in for them already exists but if the scenario of the ACC being on the defensive from the Big 10 is happening and you can offer better travel then I think there's a shot. Not a great shot mind you, as just staying independent is always an option here. As far as the playoff goes though, it seems like being in a conference is better than not being in one as it gives you one more game plus the ability to take a conference championship into the committee's' discussion room. Being in the ACC actually helped Notre Dame's tv ratings as well this last season. So there's some reasons as to why they could go for it. But there's no reason for them to jump into a bad opportunity, which the Big 12 would no longer be if they took all those steps above. Any issues with media rights would be pretty much solved with their additions, and the conference's future would be looking very bright going forward.
So a quick recap, here's how the conference would look with this new configuration. I'd assume pod scheduling would work the best so I'll split them into that
East: West Virginia, Notre Dame, Cincinnati, UCF
North: Iowa State, Kansas State, Kansas, Memphis
South: Oklahoma State, Baylor, Houston, TCU
West: Arizona, Arizona State, BYU, Texas Tech
Overall I think this is a pretty competitive conference that meets the needs of what we'll probably need in the new landscape of college football. The SEC will be kings, there's no real doubt about that, but this will be better than the Clemson heavy ACC and probably better than whatever the Pac 12 puts out there as well. If after all this we can hold steady at 3rd place, which is pretty much where we were before anyways, then that's a pretty massive W.
And while football is the kings, basketball wise this is actually kind of an insanely good conference. Kansas and Baylor still carry the flag but behind them you have a noted strong program in Arizona, a currently very good one in Houston, and a lot of programs that range from different degrees of solid behind them. Even some of the worse ones currently like Iowa State, Cincy, Kansas State, Notre Dame, and Memphis are proven capable of putting some really good runs together for extended periods of time.
So, what do we think? This wasn't meant to be a realistic thought process in any real way, it's more of drafting up a best case scenario plan for the Big 12 in the face of what's probable death coming for us. Any other plans or changes to my plan that could be made? I stayed away from trying to come up with exact plans for media rights because I have no idea what I'm talking about there.
