Big 12 Champion Computer Projection

[mj4cy]

If we can get Tech at home and pay KSU back at their place, I like our chances.

 

[Dale]

If we can get Tech at home and pay KSU back at their place, I like our chances.

If we spot ISU those two games:

Kansas: 56.7% (35.3% outright, 21.4% tied)
Iowa St.: 44.4% (23.3% outright, 21.1% tied)
Kansas St.: 11.5% (4.0% outright, 7.5% tied)
Texas Tech: 10.0% (3.1% outright, 6.9% tied)

 

[Cycsk]

If we spot ISU those two games:

Kansas: 56.7% (35.3% outright, 21.4% tied)
Iowa St.: 44.4% (23.3% outright, 21.1% tied)
Kansas St.: 11.5% (4.0% outright, 7.5% tied)
Texas Tech: 10.0% (3.1% outright, 6.9% tied)

That is close enough to be very painful!

 

[Cyclad]

That is close enough to be very painful!

I think the champion will come from the state of Kansas. I think K State is the best team in the conference. I think either them or KU will win the league.

 

[surly]

The fact Ku has ISU out of the way and K-State has the Clones in MHK gives Cyclad the award over any and all computer projections. It's down to those three schools now. TCU looked like a better team to me than TxT after playing them back-to-back.

 

[Jerms]

The fact Ku has ISU out of the way and K-State has the Clones in MHK gives Cyclad the award over any and all computer projections. It's down to those three schools now. TCU looked like a better team to me than TxT after playing them back-to-back.

You could also look at it the other way. ISU has KU out of the way and only 1 game left against KSU. They still have to play each other twice though. ISU @ KSU could be a huge game.

 

[Cyclonepride]

You could also look at it the other way. ISU has KU out of the way and only 1 game left against KSU. They still have to play each other twice tough. ISU @ KSU could be a huge game.

Yeah, we've played the most upper division teams so far. If we continue to give the attitude and effort that we have been giving, we are in a great spot.

 

[surly]

You could also look at it the other way. ISU has KU out of the way and only 1 game left against KSU. They still have to play each other twice though. ISU @ KSU could be a huge game.

That's fair, I suppose, but ISU presently trails both by a game in the standings.

 

[Dale]

The fact Ku has ISU out of the way and K-State has the Clones in MHK gives Cyclad the award over any and all computer projections.

Yeah, but any computer projection of this sort -- mine via Massey, KenPom, Bart Torvik -- is taking the games played and the games remaining (and H v. A) into consideration. They're just running simulations of the rest of the season tens of thousands of times, and the fact that e.g. ISU v. KU is done for the year is implicitly factored in (by the fact those games aren't being simulated).

That said, I do think that KSU's chances are better that ISU's, because none of these models know what to do with a team that was the 60th best team in the country their first 15 games and magically became the best team in the country their last four. Every computer model assumes there will be big-time regression to the mean for KSU upcoming...and so do I, to a degree. But maybe to something like #15, not #33 (Torvik) or #35 (KenPom).

 

[Cyclonepride]

Thought I'd do a quick Big 12 schedule assessment of remaining games.

Iowa State

6 at home, 5 on the road

Remaining games vs upper half: (3) @KSU, BU, TT

Kansas

5 at home, 6 on the road

Remaining games vs upper half: (5) TT, @KSU, @TT, KSU, Baylor

Kansas State

5 at home, 6 on the road

Remaining games vs upper half: (5) KU, @BU, ISU, @KU, Baylor

Texas Tech

6 at home, 5 on the road

Remaining games vs upper half: (4) @KU, BU, KU, @ISU

Baylor

6 at home, 6 on the road

Remaining games vs upper half: (5) KSU, @TT, @ISU, @KSU, @KU

With all that said, it seems like how teams do against the lower half that makes the difference

 

[surly]

With all that said, it seems like how teams do against the lower half that makes the difference

K-State swept the lower half last year and finished four, so I'm not buyin'.

 

[jcyclonee]

Based simply upon my eye test, I don't think Kansas wins this year. KSU has some really nice pieces and plays great defense. ISU plays very good defense and has real athletic/talent depth.

 

[jcyclonee]

If we can get Tech at home and pay KSU back at their place, I like our chances.

We'll beat Tech at home and we have a good shot at KSU on the road. With this year's defense, we can win any road game. That hasn't always been a possibility.

 

[Cyclonepride]

We'll beat Tech at home and we have a good shot at KSU on the road. With this year's defense, we can win any road game. That hasn't always been a possibility.

Yeah, in the past, we went how we shot, period. That's not the case this year.

 

[VeloClone]

Yeah, in the past, we went how we shot, period. That's not the case this year.

To a point. ISU's defense will keep them in games but can only do so much when ISU goes on stretches where every other possession is a poor look at a 3 with 20 seconds left on the shot clock. It just leads to empty possessions and transition baskets the other way.

 

[Dale]

I do think that KSU's chances are better that ISU's, because none of these models know what to do with a team that was the 60th best team in the country their first 15 games and magically became the best team in the country their last four. Every computer model assumes there will be big-time regression to the mean for KSU upcoming...and so do I, to a degree. But maybe to something like #15, not #33 (Torvik) or #35 (KenPom).

Yeeeeaaahh. I maybe should have listened to the models.

 

[akclone]

I don’t think KST can score enough to win the conference. It’s between the cyclones and the beakers.

 

[Dale]

Two big favorites heading into this week's slate of games:

Kansas: 58.9% (37.4% outright, 21.5% tied)
Iowa St.: 33.8% (16.4% outright, 17.5% tied)
Kansas St.: 13.5% (5.4% outright, 8.1% tied)
Texas Tech: 13.3% (5.0% outright, 8.3% tied)
TCU: 8.0% (2.8% outright, 5.3% tied)
Oklahoma: 6.3% (1.8% outright, 4.5% tied)
Baylor: 4.5% (1.4% outright, 3.1% tied)
Texas: 1.2% (0.2% outright, 0.9% tied)

Average wins:
Kansas: 12.32
Iowa St.: 11.54
Texas Tech: 10.38
Kansas St.: 10.31
TCU: 9.68
Oklahoma: 9.58
Baylor: 9.3
Texas: 8.2
Oklahoma St.: 5.22
West Virginia: 3.46

Title scenarios > 1%:
Kansas sole: 37.4%
Iowa St. sole: 16.4%
Iowa St., Kansas tie: 7.9%
Kansas St. sole: 5.4%
Texas Tech sole: 5.0%
TCU sole: 2.8%
Kansas, Kansas St. tie: 2.0%
Kansas, Texas Tech tie: 1.9%
Oklahoma sole: 1.8%
Baylor sole: 1.4%
Kansas, TCU tie: 1.4%
Iowa St., Texas Tech tie: 1.4%
Iowa St., Kansas St. tie: 1.3%
Kansas, Oklahoma tie: 1.1%

ISU Big 12 record chances:
7-11: 0.3%
8-10: 1.8%
9-9: 6.2%
10-8: 14.8%
11-7: 24.1%
12-6: 26.4%
13-5: 18.1%
14-4: 7.0%
15-3: 1.2%

ISU odds of title at record:
9-9 or lower: 0.0%
10-8: 0.1%
11-7: 6.5%
12-6: 40.2%
13-5: 76.5%
14-4: 94.0%
15-3: 99.5%

ISU odds of outright title at record:
10-8 or lower: 0.0%
11-7: 0.1%
12-6: 8.2%
13-5: 42.6%
14-4: 76.9%
15-3: 93.4%

 

[Dale]

We have a new Big 12 favorite!

Iowa St.: 39.7% (20.3% outright, 19.4% tied)
Kansas: 37.1% (18.5% outright, 18.6% tied)
Texas Tech: 27.5% (12.5% outright, 15.0% tied)
Baylor: 19.2% (8.1% outright, 11.1% tied)
Kansas St.: 14.2% (5.6% outright, 8.6% tied)
TCU: 3.7% (1.0% outright, 2.8% tied)
Texas: 2.9% (0.7% outright, 2.2% tied)
Oklahoma: 1.1% (0.2% outright, 1.0% tied)

Average wins:
Iowa St.: 11.59
Kansas: 11.52
Texas Tech: 11.13
Baylor: 10.69
Kansas St.: 10.25
TCU: 8.98
Texas: 8.95
Oklahoma: 8.19
Oklahoma St.: 5.16
West Virginia: 3.55

Record of Big 12 champion:
11-7: 3.1%
12-6: 29.4%
13-5: 44.0%
14-4: 20.2%
15-3: 3.3%

ISU Big 12 record chances:
7-11: 0.3%
8-10: 1.7%
9-9: 5.9%
10-8: 14.2%
11-7: 23.9%
12-6: 26.4%
13-5: 18.6%
14-4: 7.6%
15-3: 1.4%

ISU odds of title at record:
10-8: 0.1%
11-7: 7.8%
12-6: 48.6%
13-5: 86.8%
14-4: 98.5%
15-3: 100.0%

ISU odds of outright title at record:
11-7: 0.1%
12-6: 9.9%
13-5: 51.5%
14-4: 87.7%
15-3: 99.1%

 

[Remo Gaggi]

I like our chances.