Big 12 Champion Computer Projection

[Dale]

As maybe a few of you have seen, I post something akin to this in football every year on CF. This year I decided to adapt my football Python program to work with Big 12 basketball as well.

Basically, this is 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the rest of the Big 12 basketball season in Python, using Ken Massey’s rating system for the odds for every remaining game.

Chances for each team to win the Big 12 Championship:

Kansas: 51.9% (33.9% outright, 18.1% tied)
Texas Tech: 49.6% (31.9% outright, 17.7% tied)
Iowa St.: 13.5% (5.6% outright, 7.9% tied)
TCU: 7.8% (3.0% outright, 4.8% tied)
Oklahoma: 3.0% (0.9% outright, 2.1% tied)
Kansas St.: 2.0% (0.6% outright, 1.4% tied)
Texas: 1.0% (0.2% outright, 0.7% tied)
Baylor: 0.3% (0.1% outright, 0.2% tied)
Oklahoma St., West Virginia: nothin'

Championship scenarios that have at least a 0.5 percent chance of happening:

Kansas: 33.9%
Texas Tech: 31.9%
Kansas, Texas Tech: 9.4%
Iowa St.: 5.6%
TCU: 3.0%
Iowa St., Kansas: 2.4%
Iowa St., Texas Tech: 2.3%
Kansas, TCU: 1.4%
Iowa St., Kansas, Texas Tech: 1.3%
TCU, Texas Tech: 1.2%
Oklahoma: 0.9%
Kansas, TCU, Texas Tech: 0.7%
Kansas St.: 0.6%
Kansas, Oklahoma: 0.5%

Average projected wins for every Big 12 team:

Kansas: 12.79
Texas Tech: 12.71
Iowa St.: 10.99
TCU: 10.19
Oklahoma: 9.39
Kansas St.: 8.91
Texas: 8.41
Baylor: 7.36
Oklahoma St.: 5.66
West Virginia: 3.58

ISU's chances of ending up at any Big 12 record:

6-12: 0.3%
7-11: 1.3%
8-10: 4.8%
9-9: 11.4%
10-8: 19.7%
11-7: 24.0%
12-6: 20.6%
13-5: 12.3%
14-4: 4.5%
15-3: 1.0%
16-2: 0.1%

ISU odds of Big 12 title if they end at a particular record:

10-8 or worse: 0.0%
11-7: 0.9%
12-6: 12.9%
13-5: 47.8%
14-4: 81.3%
15-3: 97.2%
16-2: 100.0%

Anyone want the odds for different scenarios, just ask -- they're easy to do.

 

[Dale]

Ignoring the other games, this is what would happen to the odds if ISU wins both over OSU on Saturday and at Kansas on Monday:

Texas Tech: 53.8% (35.1% outright, 18.7% tied)
Kansas: 35.2% (18.8% outright, 16.4% tied)
Iowa St.: 28.4% (13.8% outright, 14.6% tied)
TCU: 9.0% (3.6% outright, 5.5% tied)
Oklahoma: 3.6% (1.0% outright, 2.5% tied)
Kansas St.: 2.3% (0.7% outright, 1.6% tied)
Texas: 1.1% (0.3% outright, 0.8% tied)
Baylor: 0.3% (0.1% outright, 0.2% tied)

 

[jpete24]

Ignoring the other games, this is what would happen to the odds if ISU wins both over OSU on Saturday and at Kansas on Monday:

Texas Tech: 53.8% (35.1% outright, 18.7% tied)
Kansas: 35.2% (18.8% outright, 16.4% tied)
Iowa St.: 28.4% (13.8% outright, 14.6% tied)
TCU: 9.0% (3.6% outright, 5.5% tied)
Oklahoma: 3.6% (1.0% outright, 2.5% tied)
Kansas St.: 2.3% (0.7% outright, 1.6% tied)
Texas: 1.1% (0.3% outright, 0.8% tied)
Baylor: 0.3% (0.1% outright, 0.2% tied)

Interesting. Doesn't factor that KU has to play TT twice still, as that should most likely skew the KU percentage chance down a bit.

 

[JM4CY]

As maybe a few of you have seen, I post something akin to this in football every year on CF. This year I decided to adapt my football Python program to work with Big 12 basketball as well.

Basically, this is 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the rest of the Big 12 basketball season in Python, using Ken Massey’s rating system for the odds for every remaining game.

Chances for each team to win the Big 12 Championship:

Kansas: 51.9% (33.9% outright, 18.1% tied)
Texas Tech: 49.6% (31.9% outright, 17.7% tied)
Iowa St.: 13.5% (5.6% outright, 7.9% tied)
TCU: 7.8% (3.0% outright, 4.8% tied)
Oklahoma: 3.0% (0.9% outright, 2.1% tied)
Kansas St.: 2.0% (0.6% outright, 1.4% tied)
Texas: 1.0% (0.2% outright, 0.7% tied)
Baylor: 0.3% (0.1% outright, 0.2% tied)
Oklahoma St., West Virginia: nothin'

Championship scenarios that have at least a 0.5 percent chance of happening:

Kansas: 33.9%
Texas Tech: 31.9%
Kansas, Texas Tech: 9.4%
Iowa St.: 5.6%
TCU: 3.0%
Iowa St., Kansas: 2.4%
Iowa St., Texas Tech: 2.3%
Kansas, TCU: 1.4%
Iowa St., Kansas, Texas Tech: 1.3%
TCU, Texas Tech: 1.2%
Oklahoma: 0.9%
Kansas, TCU, Texas Tech: 0.7%
Kansas St.: 0.6%
Kansas, Oklahoma: 0.5%

Average projected wins for every Big 12 team:

Kansas: 12.79
Texas Tech: 12.71
Iowa St.: 10.99
TCU: 10.19
Oklahoma: 9.39
Kansas St.: 8.91
Texas: 8.41
Baylor: 7.36
Oklahoma St.: 5.66
West Virginia: 3.58

ISU's chances of ending up at any Big 12 record:

6-12: 0.3%
7-11: 1.3%
8-10: 4.8%
9-9: 11.4%
10-8: 19.7%
11-7: 24.0%
12-6: 20.6%
13-5: 12.3%
14-4: 4.5%
15-3: 1.0%
16-2: 0.1%

ISU odds of Big 12 title if they end at a particular record:

10-8 or worse: 0.0%
11-7: 0.9%
12-6: 12.9%
13-5: 47.8%
14-4: 81.3%
15-3: 97.2%
16-2: 100.0%

Anyone want the odds for different scenarios, just ask -- they're easy to do.

So just win out then? I'm cool with that.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Part of me wants to ask what it would look like if we were 5-0 or 4-1 right now.

 

[Cyclonepride]

As maybe a few of you have seen, I post something akin to this in football every year on CF. This year I decided to adapt my football Python program to work with Big 12 basketball as well.

Basically, this is 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the rest of the Big 12 basketball season in Python, using Ken Massey’s rating system for the odds for every remaining game.

Chances for each team to win the Big 12 Championship:

Kansas: 51.9% (33.9% outright, 18.1% tied)
Texas Tech: 49.6% (31.9% outright, 17.7% tied)
Iowa St.: 13.5% (5.6% outright, 7.9% tied)
TCU: 7.8% (3.0% outright, 4.8% tied)
Oklahoma: 3.0% (0.9% outright, 2.1% tied)
Kansas St.: 2.0% (0.6% outright, 1.4% tied)
Texas: 1.0% (0.2% outright, 0.7% tied)
Baylor: 0.3% (0.1% outright, 0.2% tied)
Oklahoma St., West Virginia: nothin'

Championship scenarios that have at least a 0.5 percent chance of happening:

Kansas: 33.9%
Texas Tech: 31.9%
Kansas, Texas Tech: 9.4%
Iowa St.: 5.6%
TCU: 3.0%
Iowa St., Kansas: 2.4%
Iowa St., Texas Tech: 2.3%
Kansas, TCU: 1.4%
Iowa St., Kansas, Texas Tech: 1.3%
TCU, Texas Tech: 1.2%
Oklahoma: 0.9%
Kansas, TCU, Texas Tech: 0.7%
Kansas St.: 0.6%
Kansas, Oklahoma: 0.5%

Average projected wins for every Big 12 team:

Kansas: 12.79
Texas Tech: 12.71
Iowa St.: 10.99
TCU: 10.19
Oklahoma: 9.39
Kansas St.: 8.91
Texas: 8.41
Baylor: 7.36
Oklahoma St.: 5.66
West Virginia: 3.58

ISU's chances of ending up at any Big 12 record:

6-12: 0.3%
7-11: 1.3%
8-10: 4.8%
9-9: 11.4%
10-8: 19.7%
11-7: 24.0%
12-6: 20.6%
13-5: 12.3%
14-4: 4.5%
15-3: 1.0%
16-2: 0.1%

ISU odds of Big 12 title if they end at a particular record:

10-8 or worse: 0.0%
11-7: 0.9%
12-6: 12.9%
13-5: 47.8%
14-4: 81.3%
15-3: 97.2%
16-2: 100.0%

Anyone want the odds for different scenarios, just ask -- they're easy to do.

How do the odds change if @ChrisMWilliams points out what we don't have to worry about the other team doing well before every game?

 

[Dale]

Part of me wants to ask what it would look like if we were 5-0 or 4-1 right now.

We can do that -- for better or worse. 5-0:

Iowa St.: 44.7% (27.1% outright, 17.6% tied)
Kansas: 39.7% (23.2% outright, 16.5% tied)
Texas Tech: 37.8% (21.9% outright, 15.9% tied)
TCU: 5.4% (1.9% outright, 3.6% tied)
Oklahoma: 1.9% (0.5% outright, 1.4% tied)

And 4-1 (I gave the win over KSU, but it doesn't really matter):

Kansas: 47.3% (29.6% outright, 17.6% tied)
Texas Tech: 45.0% (27.8% outright, 17.2% tied)
Iowa St.: 27.3% (14.0% outright, 13.3% tied)
TCU: 6.9% (2.5% outright, 4.3% tied)
Oklahoma: 2.7% (0.7% outright, 2.0% tied)

 

[Cyclonepride]

The current Floyd standings, by the way

 

[Dale]

Interesting. Doesn't factor that KU has to play TT twice still, as that should most likely skew the KU percentage chance down a bit.

Most of why Kansas' odds would be higher than ISU's is because Massey has Kansas as the better team -- so their odds of winning against any given team are better than Iowa State's. Although if ISU beats KU on Monday, ISU would go up and Kansas would go down in Massey's ratings, so in actuality it'd probably be closer than the odds I posted (or possibly with ISU ahead, if it's a blowout).

 

[jpete24]

Most of why Kansas' odds would be higher than ISU's is because Massey has Kansas as the better team -- so their odds of winning against any given team are better than Iowa State's. Although if ISU beats KU on Monday, ISU would go up and Kansas would go down in Massey's ratings, so in actuality it'd probably be closer than the odds I posted (or possibly with ISU ahead, if it's a blowout).

 

[Thomasrickj]

Part of me wants to ask what it would look like if we were 5-0 or 4-1 right now.

The crazy thing is we should be and should have won those two games last week. Oh well. Just need to win outright and have TT and Kansas split and it’s ours!

 

[mj4cy]

I think our recipe for a chance at the title is to not lose another home game, try to win 4 more on the road and hope Tech/KU split. See where the chips fall after that.

We need to avenge KSU on the road but that will be tough.

 

[Cyclonepride]

I think our recipe for a chance at the title is to not lose another home game, try to win 4 more on the road and hope Tech/KU split. See where the chips fall after that.

We need to avenge KSU on the road but that will be tough.

I think 14-4 would win the conference outright. 13-5 might too with the quality depth this conference has. Finding a way to win next Monday and then beat TT at home for the sweep against those teams would be big.

 

[mj4cy]

I think 14-4 would win the conference outright. 13-5 might too with the quality depth this conference has. Finding a way to win next Monday and then beat TT at home for the sweep against those teams would be big.

No kidding. Sweep those teams and you can afford a couple slipups.

Obviously I want to win the Big 12, but I'm more concerned with getting a high enough seed for DSM.

 

[Cyclonepride]

No kidding. Sweep those teams and you can afford a couple slipups.

Obviously I want to win the Big 12, but I'm more concerned with getting a high enough seed for DSM.

Yeah, I'm more concerned about seeding too. A championship would be amazing, but seeding is the more tangible goal at this point of the year.

I'd add that those slip ups may have already happened, so I'm not sure we can afford more.

 

[Sigmapolis]

@Dale

After today's games...

How does it shake out if...

ISU wins in Lawrence
KU wins in Lawrence

Thank you.

 

[Dale]

After Saturday's games:

Conference title odds:
Kansas: 46.3% (27.8% outright, 18.4% tied)
Texas Tech: 35.6% (19.4% outright, 16.2% tied)
Iowa St.: 32.2% (16.9% outright, 15.4% tied)
Kansas St.: 9.7% (3.7% outright, 6.0% tied)
TCU: 5.1% (1.7% outright, 3.4% tied)
Texas: 3.7% (1.1% outright, 2.5% tied)
Oklahoma: 2.8% (0.7% outright, 2.1% tied)
Baylor: 1.7% (0.4% outright, 1.3% tied)
OSU and WV: not happening

Average wins:
Kansas: 11.92
Texas Tech: 11.55
Iowa St.: 11.42
Kansas St.: 9.88
TCU: 9.14
Texas: 8.95
Oklahoma: 8.76
Baylor: 8.41
Oklahoma St.: 5.54
West Virginia: 4.44

Title scenarios >1%:
Kansas: 27.8%
Texas Tech: 19.4%
Iowa St.: 16.9%
Kansas, Texas Tech: 5.1%
Iowa St., Kansas: 5.0%
Kansas St.: 3.7%
Iowa St., Texas Tech: 3.6%
TCU: 1.7%
Iowa St., Kansas, Texas Tech: 1.6%
Kansas, Kansas St.: 1.1%
Texas: 1.1%
Kansas St., Texas Tech: 1.1%

ISU Big 12 record chances:
6-12: 0.1%
7-11: 0.6%
8-10: 2.8%
9-9: 7.9%
10-8: 16.2%
11-7: 23.7%
12-6: 23.7%
13-5: 16.0%
14-4: 7.1%
15-3: 1.8%
16-2: 0.2%

ISU odds of title at record:
9-9 or under: 0.0%
10-8: 0.1%
11-7: 6.3%
12-6: 39.9%
13-5: 77.7%
14-4: 96.8%
15-3: 99.9%
16-2: 100.0%

For @Sigmapolis:

Conference odds if ISU beats Kansas:
Iowa St.: 51.3% (31.3% outright, 20.0% tied)
Texas Tech: 35.7% (19.5% outright, 16.2% tied)
Kansas: 27.1% (12.6% outright, 14.6% tied)

Conference odds if Kansas beats ISU:
Kansas: 55.3% (34.9% outright, 20.4% tied)
Texas Tech: 35.5% (19.4% outright, 16.1% tied)
Iowa St.: 23.1% (10.0% outright, 13.1% tied)

 

[madguy30]

@Dale

After today's games...

How does it shake out if...

ISU wins in Lawrence
KU wins in Lawrence

Thank you.

 

[Cycsk]

Decided to go to Lawrence on Monday to see the demise of KU.

 

[Dale]

After Monday and Tuesday's games (since today's don't have large implications):

Kansas: 59.0% (38.3% outright, 20.6% tied)
Iowa St.: 26.1% (11.8% outright, 14.3% tied)
Kansas St.: 21.1% (9.7% outright, 11.4% tied)
Texas Tech: 16.0% (6.3% outright, 9.7% tied)
TCU: 5.8% (1.9% outright, 3.9% tied)
Baylor: 4.1% (1.3% outright, 2.8% tied)
Texas: 3.5% (1.0% outright, 2.5% tied)
Oklahoma: 2.9% (0.8% outright, 2.2% tied)
Oklahoma St.: 0.0% (0.0% outright, 0.0% tied)
West Virginia: 0.0% (0.0% outright, 0.0% tied)

Average wins:
Kansas: 12.27
Iowa St.: 11.17
Kansas St.: 10.78
Texas Tech: 10.53
TCU: 9.23
Baylor: 9.16
Texas: 8.89
Oklahoma: 8.77
Oklahoma St.: 5.56
West Virginia: 3.65

Title scenarios >=1%:
Kansas: 38.3%
Iowa St.: 11.8%
Kansas St.: 9.7%
Texas Tech: 6.3%
Iowa St., Kansas: 5.8%
Kansas, Kansas St.: 3.4%
Kansas, Texas Tech: 2.5%
TCU: 1.9%
Iowa St., Kansas St.: 1.5%
Iowa St., Texas Tech: 1.3%
Baylor: 1.3%
Kansas St., Texas Tech: 1.2%
Iowa St., Kansas, Kansas St.: 1.0%
Texas: 1.0%
Kansas, TCU: 1.0%

ISU Big 12 record chances:
6-12: 0.1%
7-11: 0.8%
8-10: 3.3%
9-9: 9.3%
10-8: 18.7%
11-7: 25.7%
12-6: 23.2%
13-5: 13.9%
14-4: 4.6%
15-3: 0.6%

ISU odds of title at record:
9-9 or less: 0.0%
10-8: 0.1%
11-7: 6.1%
12-6: 39.1%
13-5: 76.1%
14-4: 94.2%
15-3: 99.2%

ISU odds of outright title at record:
10-8 or less: 0.0%
11-7: 0.1%
12-6: 8.0%
13-5: 42.2%
14-4: 76.5%
15-3: 94.7%