ISU won't be fine for four years. That four years will be explained as a death clock for the program by B1G (or any other power conference ) programs recruiting against us. This is already bad.
After much thought, my best-case, realistic realignment scenario.
- Thread starter jakemcilroy
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We’ve literally picked up like 3 football recruits and a basketball recruit since this has happened. Plus, everyone gets a free transfer now. So worst case scenario after a few years here they can transfer.
There will be blood in the water next recruiting cycle. If all ISU has until 2025 is financial stability, the financial stability is of little use. That might keep the coaches for awhile but the negative recruiting will be strong and valid going forward. The football recruits you mention can indeed transfer. The ones in the next cycle will be encouraged to cut out the middle man (us) and not sign.
Obviously we will know our fate well before 2025. We just also aren’t going to know it in a week like most people are expecting either. Why do you believe it has to be the extremes?
I see this posted all the time, but how many people are still watching ESPN via YouTubetv, Hulu live, sling etc? That seems no different than cable. There are a lot watching illegal streams, etc, but there are a lot that get their tv via these streaming methods. Maybe big games will soon be put on ESPN+ though.
This is not going to take the whole four years, just like OU and UT will not be here for 4 more years. The GOR's for the Pac 12 runs out in 2023, the Big 10 rights also run out in 2023.
So Fox and those leagues have to be already working on their next contract or soon will be. Once they decide what they are going to do expansion wise, then the other big 12 teams will have a better idea of what the future brings with it.
That was the whole purpose of the league sending the law suit to ESPN, it was to buy time, and reaffirm the idea that the contract will be paid in full.
Now if we are sitting here 3 years from now, the Pac 12, and Big 12 have decided they are going to stand pat, then the remaining schools will try to reform the league with the best of the G5 schools.
The difference is how they are charging people. The genius of BTN and the networks that followed was the idea that the network is placed on basic cable. Thereby they were allowed to charge everyone that has the service whether they watch BTN or not. If the state had a team in the conference that allowed them to charge more per month for each customer, and even in states without a team, they could charge a dollar or so a month for everyone that had the service.
That is why market size was important, the more people in a state the more money that league could bring in. Now with cord cutting that has all changed, cable companies are placing BTN and other sports networks on a premium channel where only those that care to purchase the programing are charged for it. This will mean less money for network unless they up the price, but it will narrow down the people being served. So it no longer is about adding new states, but adding teams that have higher attendence, because that shows people care about that school and therefore will most likely pay to watch their games by streaming.
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I will pay that $80, because that's the kind of passionate fan that I am.
The absolute best case scenario is being able to negotiate long term stability at the P5 level in exchange for releasing the carpetbaggers.
Could we join a p5 and take a fraction of membership money? We would be better off with a fraction at big 10 or even the evil sec with half the pay as others. It would be fun winning like big 10 west while still getting paid less and we could do it.
The BIG difference is that streaming provides more accurate viewership numbers. Of course ESPN will keep that tight to the vest depending on which league they're promoting. Furthermore, there's a direct correlation to time slot and promotion. If ISU were as hyped up as Texas, our numbers would be similar.
If the future league does not have an ESPN contract we need to approach Philo about a sponsorship. Should be an easy marketing campaign "If you don't want to subsidize the SEC, switch to Philo".
