I brought this up in a long post about why the SEZ might not be a great investment and was universally ridiculed and my post was labelled as nothing more than trollish fiction, but it was hardcore message board Cyclone fans responding, not the average/casual fan that fills Jack Trice every Saturday.
The bottom line is you can't spend $30M plus on a stadium renovation and not increase season ticket prices, but if you raise ticket prices and fail to put a good product on the field, all you've done is spent $30M to see your stadium 20% empty each Saturday.
I think the SEZ project is a massive "All In" gamble by JP, he just taxed the hell out of the ISU fan base for decades - and he did it based on three years of data that happened to coincide with the biggest win in ISU history and back to back bowl games. Can ISU sustain that type of success on the field? If not, what has changed so much since 2010 (when season average attendance was 45K) to suggest that ISU fans will pay more money for the same product?
Also, if you're going to do a major stadium renovation, why would you ever schedule a home/home with Arkansas State? Pay them to come to your stadium and use the seats you're adding.
I'm sure I'll get lambasted for this but you raise some fair points. But I think there are some things you leave out or underestimate.
There's been a big culture shift among the Cyclone fan base. More people are buying in, people who were already in are stepping up. Fan support for major sports has been through the roof, but the most important aspect of that is that it was trending upward even before Fred arrived or Rhoads beat Oklahoma State in 2011. Add in record enrollment as the state's largest university and you've got thousands more future ticketholders than before.
The second is the cumulative effect of millions of dollars in facility investments. It isn't just the stadium, it's the new football facility, scoreboard, etc. ISU is making an investment in football it hasn't before. And that's how you have to view it, as an investment. With any investment there is risk.
But yes, those whole rosy scenario won't work out if Cyclone fans abandon their teams after a bad season or two (cough, Hawkeye basketball, cough). But given the culture shift, they obviously feel like the Cyclone fan base is ready to support it.