3/4 weather thread
- Thread starter wartknight
- Start date
Now that the 6Z model runs are out, what do the weather gurus think ?
It looks like the NAM and GFS are both showing the same solutions from yesterday. And the differences are a lot of snow or not much snow for central iowa. If anything, the GFS precip estimate has gone up for the Central Iowa area. Does an inch or more of liquid precip seem abnormally high for a clipper system ? The NAM still wants to take the storm mostly north and east of Central Iowa.
The GFS would very easily produce 8 inches or more of snow over central Iowa. The NAM, which the national weather service seems to be leaning towards, would produce 3 to 5inches of snow with a sharp cut off to the south and west.
It looks like the NAM and GFS are both showing the same solutions from yesterday. And the differences are a lot of snow or not much snow for central iowa. If anything, the GFS precip estimate has gone up for the Central Iowa area. Does an inch or more of liquid precip seem abnormally high for a clipper system ? The NAM still wants to take the storm mostly north and east of Central Iowa.
The GFS would very easily produce 8 inches or more of snow over central Iowa. The NAM, which the national weather service seems to be leaning towards, would produce 3 to 5inches of snow with a sharp cut off to the south and west.
This is why the weather threads are beyond awesome. Our resident weather dude talks trash, especially to the folk that lorn for the good old days when the Signal Corp ruled the world before the incident in 1888.
I would agree that 1"+ of QPF would seem a bit out of the ordinary for a clipper system as usually most of the moisture they have to work with, is whatever they have left from the Pacific. They don't tend to be tapped into the Gulf.
However, the models all seem to to have pretty strong forcing with this system and develop another surface low along the Red River, well south of the main upper level system. That could help steer additional moisture this way.
Should point out though, Clippers are more common to Dec and Jan, and are a bit unusual themselves in March. And by March, typical moisture values are rising.
Both the NAM and GFS are pushing precipitable water values into the ~+2 standard deviations range for this system was well.
European model is indicating about half the moisture of those two.
Track is still highly questionable at this point. It appears there will again be a pretty quick cutoff from high totals to almost nothing with the highest band anywhere from say a Spencer to Newton line, or something like Mankato to Dubuque.
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The 12Z GFS is doing some interesting things, to go a bit further with what I posted above.
Clippers are not as common March storms, tend to be more of a Dec/Jan thing and not so much an early spring-type storm.
So this one probably has more moisture to work with, and the GFS seems to be producing some interesting interaction with that second surface low to the south I talked about.
It's almost like its trying to sync everything up and we sort of start with a clipper and transition toward some sort of hybrid traditional winter storm to amplify some of the heavier totals, especially in Eastern Iowa.
May just be a one-off blip in the model runs, but the southern low certainly seems like it could complicate things.
Clippers are not as common March storms, tend to be more of a Dec/Jan thing and not so much an early spring-type storm.
So this one probably has more moisture to work with, and the GFS seems to be producing some interesting interaction with that second surface low to the south I talked about.
It's almost like its trying to sync everything up and we sort of start with a clipper and transition toward some sort of hybrid traditional winter storm to amplify some of the heavier totals, especially in Eastern Iowa.
May just be a one-off blip in the model runs, but the southern low certainly seems like it could complicate things.
Winter storm watches popping up all over northern and eastern Iowa. Des Moines area currently on the fringe.
Off topic here. Why does it seem like Iowa has such worse weather than areas immediately east and west? Just seems like Iowa weather is so much worse (colder and more extreme) than pretty much anywhere in the midwest.
I grew up in central IL (45 minutes south of the Quad Cities, near Galesburg) and I haven't noticed much difference between the weather there and the weather here in central IA. The biggest difference is the wind, but that's well-explained by the fact that NE blows and IL sucks.
