2024 Big 12 Championship Game Projections

isufbcurt

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Yeah, at this point we can just figure the Big Ten and SEC get eight combined spots. The Big 12, ACC, and best G5 get three more spots. The last spot likely goes to either an ACC school, a Big 12 school, Notre Dame, or a fifth SEC school.

I say root against teams like Miami, Clemson, Notre Dame, LSU, Ole Miss, Alabama, and Texas A&M. Root against the other teams at the top of the Big 12 to improve our odds of getting to the conference title game. Root for Boise State to lose a game and fall out of contention for a bye in the playoff.

Things will evolve as the season goes on, but that’s how I see it right now.

They way I understood the byes is they went to the 4 conference champs, so BSU wouldn't even be eligible for a bye.
 

Big_Sill

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I really hope K State doesn't lose prior to playing us.

A win over a 10-1 Kansas St team is a great win

Then beating 12-0 BYU in the championship game?

No reason to hope other teams lose. We control our own destiny and can beat anyone left on our schedule
You are not wrong, but some of us would like a backup plan.
 

jctisu

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You are not wrong, but some of us would like a backup plan.
It also doesn’t matter the record of those two if you are assuming we win the conference as we are then getting in as the conference champ (yes I know it’s the top 5 conference champs) but we will get in winning the Big 12.
 

nrg4isu

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I generally don't like to look ahead... however, I'm considering plans to travel to Dallas.

So I started looking at the possibilities of how things shake out using @mred's calcaulator. I also used ESPN's Matchup Predictor a little bit to adjust how some of these games might go.

I'm firmly in @ChrisMWilliams's camp of ISU first, B12 second. My goals for this team would be (in this order):
1) 10 wins
2) Make the championship game
3) Win the Championship Game -> bid to playoffs
4) Get an At Large bid

Therefore, what I want to happen is (in this order):
1) Us to win out
2) Others to lose in order for us to make the game
3) ... win the game of course
4) Others to win in order for the B12 to get 2 bids

From what I've learned from using the calculator, we should be cheering for teams like WVU, Baylor, UCF and Houston to win as many games as possible. That will be very important if we slip up and need some tie-breaker help.

A good example are Baylor's next 2 games. It would be easy to dismiss those games as "don't care" games, but in reality we want Baylor to beat Oklahoma St. and TCU to help our tie-breaker chances.
 
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SolterraCyclone

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I generally don't like to look ahead... however, I'm considering plans to travel to Dallas.

So I started looking at the possibilities of how things shake out using @mred's calcaulator. I also used ESPN's Matchup Predictor a little bit to adjust how some of these games might go.

I'm firmly in @ChrisMWilliams's camp of ISU first, B12 second. My goals for this team would be (in this order):
1) 10 wins
2) Make the championship game
3) Win the Championship Game -> bid to playoffs
4) Get an At Large bid

Therefore, what I want to happen is (in this order):
1) Us to win out
2) Others to lose in order for us to make the game
3) ... win the game of course
4) Others to win in order for the B12 to get 2 bids

From what I've learned from using the calculator, we should be cheering for teams like Baylor, UCF and Houston to win as many games as possible. That will be very important if we slip up and need some tie-breaker help.

A good example are Baylor's next 2 games. It would be easy to dismiss those games as "don't care" games, but in reality we want Baylor to beat Oklahoma St. and TCU to help our tie-breaker chances.
In the case we don’t run the table we want the B12 teams we play to win as many games as possible (outside of ISU game) and B12 teams we don’t play to lose. Namely CU as they could play spoiler to us getting to the B12 championship.

Also, I won’t actively root for Iowa, but if they can get off their asses and win some games that would be helpful too
 

Big_Sill

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I could be wrong, but don't we really want KSU to lose another one prior to our game? Otherwise our playoffs start on 11/30.
 

Big_Sill

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Not exactly, we can lose against KState and still make it in, but obviously other stuff has to happen.
Yeah, I suppose BYU losing 2, or losing 1 with some crazy tiebreakers.
 

Big_Sill

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Right. We need Kansas State to lose another game. Frankly the same thing for Tech and Cinnci.
Sorry, too lazy to look, but don't a lot of the current 3-1 teams play each other (forcing some losses).
 

nrg4isu

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In the case we don’t run the table we want the B12 teams we play to win as many games as possible (outside of ISU game) and B12 teams we don’t play to lose. Namely CU as they could play spoiler to us getting to the B12 championship.

Also, I won’t actively root for Iowa, but if they can get off their asses and win some games that would be helpful too

I read it like this. There's 3 front runners. ISU, BYU and KState. And there's 3 chasers: Colorado, Cincy and Texas Tech.

Obviously we play Cincy and Tech and hope for wins. KState appears to be our most difficult remaining game.

Colorado we don't play so we hope them to either lose, or for us to have the tie-breaker above them. Tie-breaker seems to hinge mostly on opponent record - that's why we hope teams like Houston and WVU (teams that Colorado doesn't play) can win some toss-up games.
 
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