2024 Big 12 Championship Game Projections

[Dale]

Hey, y'all. I've done this the past several years, and I'm bringing it back again.

In short: This is 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the rest of the Big 12 football season in Python, using Ken Massey’s rating system for the odds for every remaining game.

Here are the chances for each team to make the Big 12 Championship Game. The parenthetical is their regular-season chances of finishing 1st and 2nd.

Kansas St.: 66.5% (41.8% 1st, 24.7% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 34.9% (19.4% 1st, 15.5% 2nd)
Utah: 34.7% (14.3% 1st, 20.4% 2nd)
BYU: 28.9% (14.1% 1st, 14.8% 2nd)
Arizona: 13.7% (4.4% 1st, 9.3% 2nd)
Texas Tech: 5.4% (1.6% 1st, 3.8% 2nd)
TCU: 4.0% (0.9% 1st, 3.1% 2nd)
Colorado: 3.9% (1.4% 1st, 2.5% 2nd)
West Virginia: 3.3% (1.1% 1st, 2.2% 2nd)
UCF: 2.2% (0.4% 1st, 1.8% 2nd)
Cincinnati: 1.1% (0.4% 1st, 0.7% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 0.7% (0.1% 1st, 0.6% 2nd)
Arizona St: 0.2% (0.1% 1st, 0.2% 2nd)
Baylor: 0.2% (0.1% 1st, 0.2% 2nd)
Kansas: 0.1% (0.0% 1st, 0.1% 2nd)
Houston: ha

Surprised that KSU was this overwhelming a favorite, but (a) Massey's power ratings consider them the best Big 12 team, and (b) they have the easiest remaining schedule of the contenders, with all but one game (finale @ ISU) against teams Massey thinks are in the buttom half of the conference.

Most likely championship game matchups:

Kansas St./Utah: 19.6%
Iowa St./Kansas St.: 15.8%
BYU/Kansas St.: 14.5%
BYU/Iowa St.: 7.0%
Arizona/Kansas St.: 6.9%
Iowa St./Utah: 5.8%
BYU/Utah: 3.7%
Arizona/Iowa St.: 3.0%
Kansas St./Texas Tech: 2.5%
Kansas St./TCU: 2.3%
Arizona/Utah: 2.0%
Colorado/Kansas St.: 1.6%
Kansas St./UCF: 1.3%
Kansas St./West Virginia: 1.2%
Arizona/BYU: 1.1%
Texas Tech/Utah: 1.1%

And here’s Iowa State’s chances of ending up at any given record and their chances of making the championship game at that record:

ISU record chances:
5-7: 0.2%
6-6: 1.5%
7-5: 6.5%
8-4: 17.7%
9-3: 28.4%
10-2: 27.9%
11-1: 14.7%
12-0: 3.2%

ISU odds of championship game at record:
8-4: 0.0%
9-3: 2.3%
10-2: 58.7%
11-1: 98.9%
12-0: 100.0%

 

[StLouisClone]

I came up with an 11-1 scenario in which ISU would come up short. Say ISU loses to Utah. Utah wins out and Arizona either wins out or loses one. ISU would be 0-1 against the teams in the 2-way or 3-way tie which would knock us out.

 

[rosshm16]

I'll take a 74.2% chance to win at least nine regular-season games.

 

[jsb]

More than likely we'll drop a few games and that's OK.

But boy is it fun to dream. I know everyone points to the Seneca year collapse. But this is a different team with a different coach with a different schedule.

 

[nrg4isu]

I came up with an 11-1 scenario in which ISU would come up short. Say ISU loses to Utah. Utah wins out and Arizona either wins out or loses one. ISU would be 0-1 against the teams in the 2-way or 3-way tie which would knock us out.

This isn't surprising. CW called it, saying that that is going to be the next big controversy in college football. It would be very ISU if it applied to us. That said, at this point just win the next game.

 

[ForeverIowan]

Hey, y'all. I've done this the past several years, and I'm bringing it back again.

In short: This is 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the rest of the Big 12 football season in Python, using Ken Massey’s rating system for the odds for every remaining game.

Here are the chances for each team to make the Big 12 Championship Game. The parenthetical is their regular-season chances of finishing 1st and 2nd.

Kansas St.: 66.5% (41.8% 1st, 24.7% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 34.9% (19.4% 1st, 15.5% 2nd)
Utah: 34.7% (14.3% 1st, 20.4% 2nd)
BYU: 28.9% (14.1% 1st, 14.8% 2nd)
Arizona: 13.7% (4.4% 1st, 9.3% 2nd)
Texas Tech: 5.4% (1.6% 1st, 3.8% 2nd)
TCU: 4.0% (0.9% 1st, 3.1% 2nd)
Colorado: 3.9% (1.4% 1st, 2.5% 2nd)
West Virginia: 3.3% (1.1% 1st, 2.2% 2nd)
UCF: 2.2% (0.4% 1st, 1.8% 2nd)
Cincinnati: 1.1% (0.4% 1st, 0.7% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 0.7% (0.1% 1st, 0.6% 2nd)
Arizona St: 0.2% (0.1% 1st, 0.2% 2nd)
Baylor: 0.2% (0.1% 1st, 0.2% 2nd)
Kansas: 0.1% (0.0% 1st, 0.1% 2nd)
Houston: ha

Surprised that KSU was this overwhelming a favorite, but (a) Massey's power ratings consider them the best Big 12 team, and (b) they have the easiest remaining schedule of the contenders, with all but one game (finale @ ISU) against teams Massey thinks are in the buttom half of the conference.

Most likely championship game matchups:

Kansas St./Utah: 19.6%
Iowa St./Kansas St.: 15.8%
BYU/Kansas St.: 14.5%
BYU/Iowa St.: 7.0%
Arizona/Kansas St.: 6.9%
Iowa St./Utah: 5.8%
BYU/Utah: 3.7%
Arizona/Iowa St.: 3.0%
Kansas St./Texas Tech: 2.5%
Kansas St./TCU: 2.3%
Arizona/Utah: 2.0%
Colorado/Kansas St.: 1.6%
Kansas St./UCF: 1.3%
Kansas St./West Virginia: 1.2%
Arizona/BYU: 1.1%
Texas Tech/Utah: 1.1%

And here’s Iowa State’s chances of ending up at any given record and their chances of making the championship game at that record:

ISU record chances:
5-7: 0.2%
6-6: 1.5%
7-5: 6.5%
8-4: 17.7%
9-3: 28.4%
10-2: 27.9%
11-1: 14.7%
12-0: 3.2%

ISU odds of championship game at record:
8-4: 0.0%
9-3: 2.3%
10-2: 58.7%
11-1: 98.9%
12-0: 100.0%

Really really feels like 10-2 is more than attainable. Interesting we are more likely than not to play in Big 12 title at 10-2.

9-3 at this point would be extremely disappointing. That would pretty much mean losses in all remaining "coin flip" type games @WVU, @utah, Kansas State.

 

[Spanky]

 

[demoncore1031]

Really really feels like 10-2 is more than attainable. Interesting we are more likely than not to play in Big 12 title at 10-2.

9-3 at this point would be extremely disappointing. That would pretty much mean losses in all remaining "coin flip" type games @WVU, @utah, Kansas State.

I wouldn't be disappointed with a 9-3 record. That would tie the most wins in school history. Obviously I want 10 or more wins, but as a 35 year fan I know to not get my hopes too high.

 

[BoomerClone]

I wouldn't be disappointed with a 9-3 record. That would tie the most wins in school history. Obviously I want 10 or more wins, but as a 35 year fan I know to not get my hopes too high.

ISU could go 12-0 and you would be like “well, our left guard has giving up too many sacks. This team sucks!”

 

[rosshm16]

It's a great sign of how far the program has come that anyone would be disappointed with 9-3. Nine regular-season wins would be the modern-era school record at ISU. Both previous 9-win seasons had eight regular-season wins then won a bowl game.

 

[Cyhig]

I like this new big 12

 

[VeloClone]

I'll take a 74.2% chance to win at least nine regular-season games.

Not to mention a 45.8% chance to get the 10 win monkey off our backs - in the regular season!

 

[Tailg8er]

Really really feels like 10-2 is more than attainable. Interesting we are more likely than not to play in Big 12 title at 10-2.

9-3 at this point would be extremely disappointing. That would pretty much mean losses in all remaining "coin flip" type games @WVU, @utah, Kansas State.

Disagree, definitely wouldn't be extremely disappointed with a 9 win regular season. Slightly disappointed just due to where we're currently at, but 9-3 would still be a successful season.

 

[JM4CY]

There's going to be a lot of Big 12 scoreboard watching moments where we go "what in the ****???" between now and the end of the year. Buckle up.

 

[Hubbs4cy]

At this point I think best case for us and the conference is: us, kstate, and utah to win out until 11/23. At that point probably 5 of the teams in front of these 3 in AP will have one to two more loses. That will set up for a wild finish in the big 12 and still leave a door open for 2 big 12 teams to make the playoff. Otherwise CW is right and only the winner of the big 12 gets in.

 

[DGC]

Here is the most Iowa State situation to happen

We are 10-1 going into the KSU game. Winner gets into the championship game and loser is scoreboard watching. We draw the 11am kickoff so we can't scoreboard watch. We go all in and thump K State at home. The rest of the Big 12 games go the way KSU needs them to and they wind up in the championship game as well. We lose in the championship game and get left out of the playoffs.

And then we play KSU again to start the following season.

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

This isn't surprising. CW called it, saying that that is going to be the next big controversy in college football. It would be very ISU if it applied to us. That said, at this point just win the next game.

This is why the Power conferences need to all be playing on level ground. The B1G, SEC, Big 12, and ACC all need to play 10 conference games. The fact that the sackless SEC is still only playing 8 is a load of crap. At some point that has to matter!

 

[Nolaeer]

CFN updated its Big 12 projections today and has ISU finishing 9-3, with losses @ Kansas, Utah, and WVU. It has az and Utah in the Big 12 championship.

 

[Cyclonsin]

This is why the Power conferences need to all be playing on level ground. The B1G, SEC, Big 12, and ACC all need to play 10 conference games. The fact that the sackless SEC is still only playing 8 is a load of crap. At some point that has to matter!

So is the ACC, for the record.

And even if everyone played the same number of conference games, we'd still be miles from being on "level ground." The system is rigged. It always has been rigged. And it will only get more rigged as the money at stake continues to increase.

Besides, if the SEC did play 9 conference games that would only be a huge point in their favor for the committee to trot out there: "oh, of course they're worthy of making it in with 4 loses! All 4 loses were to powerful SEC teams!"

 

[loyalsons4evertrue]

We all know what's at stake and the potential of this season....but I am just trying to look at it one game at a time.

Beat Baylor!