It's basically what Iowa fan has felt like the last decade in the Big 10 West. Except our schedule is still harder than theirs have been.I like this new big 12
2024 Big 12 Championship Game Projections
- Thread starter Dale
- Start date
You could flip the remaining schedule for Iowa St. and Kansas St. and see what difference it makes.
I don't think that would be doubling up on any opponent either team had already seen.
it is pretty funny that in this new look Big 12, we don't play OU or Texas anymore and we still have a tougher schedule than Iowa, even when the big bad Big Ten got rid of divisions....Iowa State is the 2nd toughest opponent Iowa plays in the entire regular season
Not necessarily. Arizona could have played one of the top teams but the remainder of their games were against teams 9-16 in the final standings while ISU didn't play either of the other tied teams but played against 4-12. In that case Arizona only played one team with a reasonable chance of an upset and a winning conference record while ISU could have played five teams with winning conference records.
First, mea culpa regarding last week's ratings: Kansas State and Utah were both too high, because the model was counting the KSU-Arizona and Utah-Baylor games as conference games. Anyway, that's corrected in this below numbers, which includes the games from yesterday:
Iowa St.: 58.8% (41.5% 1st, 17.3% 2nd)
BYU: 33.1% (14.8% 1st, 18.2% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 27.5% (11.5% 1st, 16.0% 2nd)
Texas Tech: 27.0% (11.8% 1st, 15.2% 2nd)
West Virginia: 18.8% (8.4% 1st, 10.4% 2nd)
Utah: 14.7% (5.6% 1st, 9.1% 2nd)
Arizona: 6.8% (2.1% 1st, 4.7% 2nd)
Colorado: 5.1% (1.9% 1st, 3.2% 2nd)
UCF: 3.7% (1.2% 1st, 2.6% 2nd)
Cincinnati: 2.3% (0.8% 1st, 1.6% 2nd)
Arizona St: 1.0% (0.3% 1st, 0.8% 2nd)
TCU: 0.9% (0.2% 1st, 0.7% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 0.2% (0.0% 1st, 0.2% 2nd)
Baylor, Houston, Kansas: Ha
Most common conference championship matchups:
BYU/Iowa St.: 15.9%
Iowa St./Texas Tech: 11.4%
Iowa St./Kansas St.: 10.2%
Iowa St./West Virginia: 7.4%
Iowa St./Utah: 5.5%
BYU/Kansas St.: 5.4%
BYU/Texas Tech: 4.4%
Kansas St./Texas Tech: 4.3%
BYU/West Virginia: 3.2%
Arizona/Iowa St.: 3.0%
Kansas St./Utah: 2.5%
Kansas St./West Virginia: 2.5%
Colorado/Iowa St.: 2.3%
Texas Tech/West Virginia: 2.3%
Texas Tech/Utah: 2.0%
BYU/Utah: 1.8%
Utah/West Virginia: 1.7%
Iowa St./UCF: 1.4%
ISU record chances:
6-6: 0.5%
7-5: 3.5%
8-4: 13.1%
9-3: 27.0%
10-2: 31.3%
11-1: 19.5%
12-0: 5.0%
ISU odds of championship game at record:
8-4: 0.0%
9-3: 18.4%
10-2: 87.4%
11-1: 99.6%
12-0: 100.0%
One way ISU doesn't get in with an 11-1 record: ISU loses to KSU, and BYU and KSU win out.
Iowa St.: 58.8% (41.5% 1st, 17.3% 2nd)
BYU: 33.1% (14.8% 1st, 18.2% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 27.5% (11.5% 1st, 16.0% 2nd)
Texas Tech: 27.0% (11.8% 1st, 15.2% 2nd)
West Virginia: 18.8% (8.4% 1st, 10.4% 2nd)
Utah: 14.7% (5.6% 1st, 9.1% 2nd)
Arizona: 6.8% (2.1% 1st, 4.7% 2nd)
Colorado: 5.1% (1.9% 1st, 3.2% 2nd)
UCF: 3.7% (1.2% 1st, 2.6% 2nd)
Cincinnati: 2.3% (0.8% 1st, 1.6% 2nd)
Arizona St: 1.0% (0.3% 1st, 0.8% 2nd)
TCU: 0.9% (0.2% 1st, 0.7% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 0.2% (0.0% 1st, 0.2% 2nd)
Baylor, Houston, Kansas: Ha
Most common conference championship matchups:
BYU/Iowa St.: 15.9%
Iowa St./Texas Tech: 11.4%
Iowa St./Kansas St.: 10.2%
Iowa St./West Virginia: 7.4%
Iowa St./Utah: 5.5%
BYU/Kansas St.: 5.4%
BYU/Texas Tech: 4.4%
Kansas St./Texas Tech: 4.3%
BYU/West Virginia: 3.2%
Arizona/Iowa St.: 3.0%
Kansas St./Utah: 2.5%
Kansas St./West Virginia: 2.5%
Colorado/Iowa St.: 2.3%
Texas Tech/West Virginia: 2.3%
Texas Tech/Utah: 2.0%
BYU/Utah: 1.8%
Utah/West Virginia: 1.7%
Iowa St./UCF: 1.4%
ISU record chances:
6-6: 0.5%
7-5: 3.5%
8-4: 13.1%
9-3: 27.0%
10-2: 31.3%
11-1: 19.5%
12-0: 5.0%
ISU odds of championship game at record:
8-4: 0.0%
9-3: 18.4%
10-2: 87.4%
11-1: 99.6%
12-0: 100.0%
One way ISU doesn't get in with an 11-1 record: ISU loses to KSU, and BYU and KSU win out.
This is awesome. We have some big games left at home and if we take care of these, I love our chances. Us fans need to step up and do our part to make winning at home as easy as possible, like last night
@JP4CY as a mod now, get your ass in here and take care of this. I know we don’t allow erotica to be posted on CF.
If by SLIM chance that 11-1 scenario was to occur, our only loss to what would end up being top ten KState, I would think wed be a strong candidate for an at large bid to the playoff.
Of course we'd be a strong canidate. But being a strong canidate doesn't mean sh*t. If we don't win the conference, we are grabbing our ankles.
In that scenario we'd be the third best team in the Big 12. No way would 3 Big 12 teams make the playoff. They'd take a one loss BYU that split games with KState and/or KState with a head to head road win over us...but it might be the best case scenario for the Big 12 to actually get 2 bids...terrible for us but good for the conference I guess.
Really interested in seeing what this looks like in a couple of days!
I look forward to this update more than the AP poll coming out.
Agree- AP poll is worthless. Iowa state will either stay the same or move down this week so that the B10 and SEC teams that lost can stay top 10 and those that won like LSU and Norte Dame will move past ISU.
Update after Friday's/Saturday's games:
Iowa St.: 78.7% (60.6% 1st, 18.2% 2nd)
BYU: 50.3% (18.0% 1st, 32.4% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 28.3% (9.5% 1st, 18.8% 2nd)
Texas Tech: 22.8% (7.6% 1st, 15.1% 2nd)
West Virginia: 6.4% (1.4% 1st, 5.0% 2nd)
Cincinnati: 4.7% (1.5% 1st, 3.2% 2nd)
Arizona St: 3.3% (0.7% 1st, 2.6% 2nd)
Utah: 1.8% (0.3% 1st, 1.5% 2nd)
Arizona: 1.2% (0.2% 1st, 1.0% 2nd)
Colorado: 1.2% (0.2% 1st, 1.1% 2nd)
TCU: 0.6% (0.0% 1st, 0.5% 2nd)
UCF: 0.5% (0.1% 1st, 0.4% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 0.2% (0.0% 1st, 0.1% 2nd)
Baylor, Houston, Kansas: ha
Most common conference championship matchups:
BYU/Iowa St.: 36.5%
Iowa St./Kansas St.: 16.5%
Iowa St./Texas Tech: 13.9%
BYU/Kansas St.: 6.7%
BYU/Texas Tech: 4.2%
Iowa St./West Virginia: 4.2%
Kansas St./Texas Tech: 2.9%
Cincinnati/Iowa St.: 2.5%
Arizona St/Iowa St.: 2.2%
BYU/West Virginia: 1.0%
ISU record chances:
6-6: 0.0%
7-5: 0.6%
8-4: 4.4%
9-3: 16.4%
10-2: 32.7%
11-1: 33.0%
12-0: 13.0%
ISU odds of championship game at record:
8-4: 0.0%
9-3: 20.2%
10-2: 90.3%
11-1: 99.8%
12-0: 100.0%
One way ISU doesn't get in with an 11-1 record: ISU loses to KSU, and BYU and KSU win out.
Iowa St.: 78.7% (60.6% 1st, 18.2% 2nd)
BYU: 50.3% (18.0% 1st, 32.4% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 28.3% (9.5% 1st, 18.8% 2nd)
Texas Tech: 22.8% (7.6% 1st, 15.1% 2nd)
West Virginia: 6.4% (1.4% 1st, 5.0% 2nd)
Cincinnati: 4.7% (1.5% 1st, 3.2% 2nd)
Arizona St: 3.3% (0.7% 1st, 2.6% 2nd)
Utah: 1.8% (0.3% 1st, 1.5% 2nd)
Arizona: 1.2% (0.2% 1st, 1.0% 2nd)
Colorado: 1.2% (0.2% 1st, 1.1% 2nd)
TCU: 0.6% (0.0% 1st, 0.5% 2nd)
UCF: 0.5% (0.1% 1st, 0.4% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 0.2% (0.0% 1st, 0.1% 2nd)
Baylor, Houston, Kansas: ha
Most common conference championship matchups:
BYU/Iowa St.: 36.5%
Iowa St./Kansas St.: 16.5%
Iowa St./Texas Tech: 13.9%
BYU/Kansas St.: 6.7%
BYU/Texas Tech: 4.2%
Iowa St./West Virginia: 4.2%
Kansas St./Texas Tech: 2.9%
Cincinnati/Iowa St.: 2.5%
Arizona St/Iowa St.: 2.2%
BYU/West Virginia: 1.0%
ISU record chances:
6-6: 0.0%
7-5: 0.6%
8-4: 4.4%
9-3: 16.4%
10-2: 32.7%
11-1: 33.0%
12-0: 13.0%
ISU odds of championship game at record:
8-4: 0.0%
9-3: 20.2%
10-2: 90.3%
11-1: 99.8%
12-0: 100.0%
One way ISU doesn't get in with an 11-1 record: ISU loses to KSU, and BYU and KSU win out.
WVU can hopefully give KSU a game next week. Playing at altitude in a night game and then going to Morgantown is tough
