2024 Big 12 Championship Game Projections

[Trice]

Yikes.

This sport needs serious, considered reform when this all could be so much easier and clearer.

I saw someone online (probably a CFB writer, I don't remember who) suggest that the inevitable outcome of all this is conference semifinal games. Not sure if they were just spitballing or quoting someone in college athletics who thinks that's where this will end up.

Doesn't seem like a great idea to me, but then neither does just about anything this sport does anymore.

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

This league deserves some credit. Teams 1-10 can hang with a lot of good teams but the book is already written for the B1G and SEC. The clock hasn’t even hit zeros last night in Norman and ESPN was spreading spinning a plan for Alabama to make the playoffs. Unlike the B1G the BIG 12 isn’t 4 teams and a by inch of tomato cans. The Big 12 should absolutely get a second team in but it’s all been predetermined.

 

[JM4CY]

If you’ve paid attention at all, there’s absolutely no way we’re getting two teams in. Zero

 

[Clonehomer]

If you’ve paid attention at all, there’s absolutely no way we’re getting two teams in. Zero

The only possibility was to have an undefeated team lose in the CCG. Or maybe a 1 loss team lose to the team they beat earlier in the season. But that 1 loss had to have been to a highly ranked team. Once ISU and BYU lost a game, it was over.

 

[Dale]

Big 12 Conference Standings Predictor

Predict the Big 12 Conference Standings

big12.biw.app

Here is another site to mess around with

Everything I’ve ran with this has iowa state in with a win. Maybe I’m missing something.

I’m like 90% sure we are in a “win-and-in” situation.

Double-checking it by hand, I believe that site has mistaken logic in some scenarios with an ISU/ASU/Colorado tie. mred's logic is correct.

 

[bosco]

This league deserves some credit. Teams 1-10 can hang with a lot of good teams but the book is already written for the B1G and SEC. The clock hasn’t even hit zeros last night in Norman and ESPN was spreading spinning a plan for Alabama to make the playoffs. Unlike the B1G the BIG 12 isn’t 4 teams and a by inch of tomato cans. The Big 12 should absolutely get a second team in but it’s all been predetermined.

As long as the public slops up that **** they'll keep doing it. It's all about the clicks and we ain't sexy enough.

 

[Cyhig]

So, with the game times finally set, imagine the ulcers in this scenario:

Colorado, Texas Tech, and Kansas all win the early games
Arizona State wins just before ISU kicks off
TCU knocks off Cincinnati as Iowa State is well into the second half

Iowa State manages to win another white-knuckler around 10 pm

Then all Cyclone Nation has to do is wait until after midnight to see if BYU can win in Provo to get us to Arlington

Riot bros will have our back.

 

[CoachHines3]

Double-checking it by hand, I believe that site has mistaken logic in some scenarios with an ISU/ASU/Colorado tie. mred's logic is correct.

Good to know!

 

[shawn_200m]

From the scenarios I've run, we need a win from OSU or WV or AZ or BYU or Baylor + Cincy

 

[Clonehomer]

From the scenarios I've run, we need a win from OSU or WV or AZ or BYU or Baylor + Cincy

BYU is the only one on that list I feel good about.

 

[Cyhig]

This league deserves some credit. Teams 1-10 can hang with a lot of good teams but the book is already written for the B1G and SEC. The clock hasn’t even hit zeros last night in Norman and ESPN was spreading spinning a plan for Alabama to make the playoffs. Unlike the B1G the BIG 12 isn’t 4 teams and a by inch of tomato cans. The Big 12 should absolutely get a second team in but it’s all been predetermined.

E$PN still has Bama as the 12th best team

 

[Clonehomer]

E$PN still has Bama as the 12th best team

The SEC certainly has put them in a tough spot this year. But, they’ll do and say whatever is needed to set the table for multiple 3 loss SEC teams to get in.

 

[mark82]

E$PN still has Bama as the 12th best team

Of course, ESPN is all SEC, they need to protect their investment.

It is about the dollars for ESPN.

 

[bosco]

BYU going to throw that game against Houston as payback for the eye gouge.

 

[Hoggins]

It is frustrating that the current playoff predictions have the Big 12 champ projected as the 12 seed and Boise State as #4.

Boise has a tough path. Oregon State and UNLV can win

 

[shawn_200m]

BYU is the only one on that list I feel good about.

My concern is that BYU will know if they are eliminated or not by the time they play.

 

[Clonehomer]

My concern is that BYU will know if they are eliminated or not by the time they play.

Sure. But Houston is already eliminated. It is also senior night for BYU. If they were playing a better team I’d feel differently. But my confidence is more about Houston than BYU.

 

[KidSilverhair]

Riot bros will have our back.

Yep, that’s the best scenario … Mountaineers win the early game, and then all Iowa State has to do is take care of business.

/deep breath, meditation noises/

 

[KidSilverhair]

I saw someone online (probably a CFB writer, I don't remember who) suggest that the inevitable outcome of all this is conference semifinal games. Not sure if they were just spitballing or quoting someone in college athletics who thinks that's where this will end up.

Doesn't seem like a great idea to me, but then neither does just about anything this sport does anymore.

I don’t know what else you’re going to do when conference schedules don’t let everybody play (almost) everybody else. You get to 14 or more members, you throw away divisions, there’s no way except tiebreakers to find your two “top” teams. I mean, look at the Big XII! You could have a four-way tie where one of the four (Iowa State) hasn’t played any if the other three!

Personally, I don’t know what was so wrong with divisions. I mean, yeah, B1G West highlighted the issues, but even so, if you win the ”stronger” division you proved your worth … and if you didn’t win the division, gee, somebody else already proved they were better than you on the field, what makes you think you get a second chance?

Maybe even top four can be tricky, but at least you’re getting in the ballpark of deserving teams.

 

[Dale]

Final update of the year:

BYU: 61.3% (16.4% 1st, 44.9% 2nd)
Arizona St: 60.0% (58.7% 1st, 1.3% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 53.2% (21.4% 1st, 31.8% 2nd)
Colorado: 14.4% (2.7% 1st, 11.7% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 5.8% (0.4% 1st, 5.4% 2nd)
Baylor: 4.7% (0.3% 1st, 4.4% 2nd)
Texas Tech: 0.3% (0.0% 1st, 0.3% 2nd)
West Virginia: 0.2% (0.0% 1st, 0.2% 2nd)

Most likely matchups:
Arizona St/Iowa St.: 31.3%
Arizona St/BYU: 25.2%
BYU/Iowa St.: 19.7%
BYU/Colorado: 9.5%
BYU/Kansas St.: 3.8%
Baylor/BYU: 3.1%
Arizona St/Colorado: 2.3%
Colorado/Iowa St.: 1.6%

ISU record chances:
9-3: 46.1%
10-2: 53.9%

ISU odds of championship game at record:
9-3: 0.0%
10-2: 98.6%

As I and others have posted here, if ISU wins, they need any one of these to happen to make the championship game:

• BYU to beat Houston (most likely)
• OSU to beat Colorado
• Arizona to beat ASU
• West Virginia to beat Texas Tech
• both Cincinnati to beat TCU and Baylor to beat Kansas