So would we say the predictive part might be flawed a bit?
2024-2025 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
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I don't know how much I could say that.
because the metric is looking at them in totality.
I mean, Houston had a close game vs probably the best team in the country, Auburn. It went to OT against a top 10 alabama team. From a computer standpoint those are never going to drag a team down. In fact, those basically say 'this is a top 10 team'. Losing to SDSU in OT is their worst performance of the year (clearly), but its likely being cancelled out somewhat by having multiple other games that are rating out extremely well (notably blowing out a quad 2 butler team)
I mean we played an even closer game against that same Auburn team, on a real neutral court. They played theirs against Auburn in Houston, essentially a home game. We also played a top ten team, and didn’t lose in OT.I don't know how much I could say that.
because the metric is looking at them in totality.
I mean, Houston had a close game vs probably the best team in the country, Auburn. It went to OT against a top 10 alabama team. From a computer standpoint those are never going to drag a team down. In fact, those basically say 'this is a top 10 team'. Losing to SDSU in OT is their worst performance of the year (clearly), but its likely being cancelled out somewhat by having multiple other games that are rating out extremely well (notably blowing out a quad 2 butler team)
I feared Houston more last year than this year..
The replaced the B12POY with Milos Uzan, who is a nice player, but A FAR CRY from even sniffing POY in the conference. I also think Otz has game planned well against Cryer in past games, so it's really up to Sharp and their front court to beat us.
The replaced the B12POY with Milos Uzan, who is a nice player, but A FAR CRY from even sniffing POY in the conference. I also think Otz has game planned well against Cryer in past games, so it's really up to Sharp and their front court to beat us.
If you filter Torvik to only include this year's regular season games Houston is still #3 (we are #6 FWIW)
I think there are two main factors to that - first, the analytics LOVE that Houston is holding opponents to ~38% shooting on 2-pt shots. And they are playing at a very very slow pace. I've long thought that there was an inherent bias in the analytics towards very slow paced teams (call it the Wisconsin factor) - probably because a small analytical advantage becomes bigger when there's 20% fewer possessions in a game.
I love analytics, to a degree. They can tell you some things about a team, sure, but I don’t love how in love we’ve become with analytics. And that is across all sports, too.
I mean no metric is 100% correct. And W/L record does not really predict how well you will play in the next game. How well you've played in the previous games does.
To no one's surprise the Morgan State game is the worse game so far according to Torvik.
ooh I was expecting it to be the lowest game score but not as low as this! Expected something in the low 80s got 73.
Giving up 72 in 74 possessions against the #351 (out of #364) team in the country...
...not good defense.
Won't help in the computers, obviously, but they won. Done with the Q4/non-con games.
To be fair, Morgan St. was making a ton of tough shots during that game. I was right behind the baseline to the west with the pep band, and their two lead guards (looks like their names were Hobbs and Simpkins) were making all sorts of shots in the paint with two of three guys' hands right in their face.
It felt like every possession one of their guys jumped in the air with zero idea what he was going to do with the ball and magically it always worked out for them. That idea usually ends in disaster.
Oh well. Time to play Colorado again!
...not good defense.
Won't help in the computers, obviously, but they won. Done with the Q4/non-con games.
To be fair, Morgan St. was making a ton of tough shots during that game. I was right behind the baseline to the west with the pep band, and their two lead guards (looks like their names were Hobbs and Simpkins) were making all sorts of shots in the paint with two of three guys' hands right in their face.
It felt like every possession one of their guys jumped in the air with zero idea what he was going to do with the ball and magically it always worked out for them. That idea usually ends in disaster.
Oh well. Time to play Colorado again!
Yeah they seemed to just drive in jump and see what happened. They would lose the ball and it would just careen to another of their players.
Agree 100%. Oddly enough, I was on the opposite baseline, east end third row under the basket. Agree on the guards making a lot of super physical, tough, contested shots at the rim. I feel like Morgan State played with an admirable amount of physicality all game, being right on top of the action. It is what it is. Sometimes games defy the analytics.
That one really quick kid is likely to go 1-12 in the next game if he takes those kinds of shots.
We can talk all about how Morgan State made impossible shots all we want...I'm more concerned how easy it was for them to pass it inside for easy lay-ups (particularly in the 1st half.) Our bigs have been susceptible to coming to double or help out only to leave someone underneath for an easy lay-up, dunk or offensive rebound. They were better in the 2nd half but we also had a few more blocks underneath the basket too. I don't remember BRE, Ward or Jackson being this "loose" on the interior. Maybe I'm wrong. But I worry if this area doesn't get better defensively, the Big12 teams will exploit that more so than last year.
ISU fans are just going to have to get used to the fact that we aren't always going be as locked in defensively as we have been the first 3 years of TJs coaching career. The gains up front offensively far outweigh the losses defensively. This team may not be the best defensive team this year, but they are still one of the better defenses and have one of the best offenses in the country.
I bet Otz gets into them on this break before Colorado, we have a defensive identity here at Iowa State, and this team is not consistently playing to the level of defensive expectations.
On the flip side, I'm not sure people recognize just how elite this offense has become!
If the guys want to go to a final four, we need to hover around top 10-12 in both offense and defense on kenpom. If we end up top 5 in offense and top 25 in defense, we are going to get beat in the Sweet 16 again.
On the flip side, I'm not sure people recognize just how elite this offense has become!
If the guys want to go to a final four, we need to hover around top 10-12 in both offense and defense on kenpom. If we end up top 5 in offense and top 25 in defense, we are going to get beat in the Sweet 16 again.
That would be an elite group, what are you talking about? Purdue was in the 60s for defensive efficiency last year and made the title game. If we are a top 25 defense, with a top 5 offense that can absolutely get you to the final 4. And I bet our defense improves as we get to conference play. It’s not like it has been horrible by any stretch. Just different.
