I’m always looking for a lottery ticket so I buy the most beat up **** I can find them hope that it rides the wave back up with actual quality after this CoVID wave ends. Sell it, get my money right for the next wave. Maybe buy the same garbage again. I also buy weed stonks all of the time. The day is coming, might be too late for me but I’m betting on fed legalization or decriminalization at some point in my kids’ lives.
2022 Stock Market
- Thread starter BCClone
- Start date
I’m always looking for a lottery ticket so I buy the most beat up **** I can find them hope that it rides the wave back up with actual quality after this CoVID wave ends. Sell it, get my money right for the next wave. Maybe buy the same garbage again. I also buy weed stonks all of the time. The day is coming, might be too late for me but I’m betting on fed legalization or decriminalization at some point in my kids’ lives.
So if the Fed increases rates, will the market rejoice over that action due to the hope that it will decrease inflation? Or will the market continue to fall?
If this is a long term buy, I would recommend stocks from the below list due to dividend yield. The list is at about the bottom 1/4 of the page.
2024 Dividend Aristocrats List | Updated Daily | All 68 Analyzed
Immediately get a spreadsheet of all 68 Dividend Aristocrats now. The Dividend Aristocrats are stocks with 25+ years of rising dividends.
Way less scientific but I try to start small and double the amount of my investment every time I put in as the market goes down. Only do this if the market is actually down and you continue to be able to buy in cheaper.
I use 4% as the buy trigger and increase the purchase amounts as the market declines. Need a 52% decline to make all the money purchases. Start at 1 % and increase until final investment is 17%. 13 purchases required. Need to have confidence in the long term to implement this strategy. I use indexes and etfs to avoid something going to zero. I think my purchase amounts are 1,2,4,4,6,6,8,8,10,10,12,12,17. Robert Lichello wrote a book on a strategy that I modified to this. He used individual stocks before etfs and indexes.
If the Fed isn't going to step in and "message" that they are here to support the market, then no telling how far down it goes. Because that is what got the market this high. Toss in some massive margin calls, crypto collapse, skirmish with Russia, and who knows.
I'm hard pressed to think of a time when the markets reacted positively to rate hikes. If they do, it's likely a prediction of rate hikes was baked in, and the fed comes back and raises rates less than or slower than expected.
Probably just time to pay the piper, get inflation under control, get the correction over with, then start recovering. I'm starting to buy back in more now, but keep some cash on the sidelines in case we get another 5% or more drop.
For my 401k retirement savings my method has been 100% Vanguard Target Retirement Fund 2030. 0% cash. I have no clue where the top or bottom is but I plan on retiring in about 9 years.
For my wifes IRA, 50% Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral shares 50% Wellington fund. 0% cash. I have no clue where the top or bottom is but I plan on retiring in about 9 years.
For my wifes 401k, 100% Target fund 2030.
For my emergency savings, 25% in ibonds and 75% is a savings account that basically earns nothing and probably loses with inflation.
Roth IRA-A bunch of dumb **** like ARKG, VYM, AGNC, NOBL, etc. I really need to stopping being dumb with this but I haven't been putting any money in it for a while.
For my wifes IRA, 50% Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral shares 50% Wellington fund. 0% cash. I have no clue where the top or bottom is but I plan on retiring in about 9 years.
For my wifes 401k, 100% Target fund 2030.
For my emergency savings, 25% in ibonds and 75% is a savings account that basically earns nothing and probably loses with inflation.
Roth IRA-A bunch of dumb **** like ARKG, VYM, AGNC, NOBL, etc. I really need to stopping being dumb with this but I haven't been putting any money in it for a while.
Regarding crypto - do you think a collapse is necessarily bad for the market? Seems like a lot of traditional stock $ was getting pumped into crypto. I wonder if the volatility and collapse scares a lot of people out of crypto and more heavily invested in stocks. I think a lot of the moderate/high risk investors probably view the stock market dip as a typical buying opportunity, while the crypto dip is viewed as just too much of an unknown.
No I don't. Agree with your analysis. A typical bear market somewhere in the 30 to 40% range isn't likely here, but can't be ruled out. And boy would it bring a lot of money into the markets and lend support for another good run. The top needed to be blown off these markets, including the bond market. Hard to go through, but necessary. It just become way to easy to make money. In most every asset category, including real estate.
Could be a margin call situation.
Somebody buys a lot of crypto on leverage then it collapses.
Forced to crash sell stocks to cover their shortage.
Pushes stock prices down.
Not sure if crypto markets are big enough to that, though.
I put in orders for SPDR at 350 and 365 today. This may tell you where I think it may go. Bought some beat up tech stocks today in case they are near their bottoms. Buying small chunks though all new positions less than 2% of my holdings. I own some bond funds that look better than my overall portfolio and the bond funds show a loss over the last year. Go get em Bulls.
The taxes weed companies will incur will really eat into their margins, but some can be high flyers so that's exciting.
Today's reversal was straight up wild, good to end on a good green day.
Will be interesting if crypto can find a bottom soon and start heading the right direction again. It's here to stay I believe.
Digital Turbine (APPS)
The Trade Desk (TTD)
Energy Transfer Partners (ET)
Still Looking to add shares of Occidental Petroleum (OXY) and maybe EOG Resources along with another midstream such as Antero (AM.) I've been pounding the table about oil stocks for quite some time. Free cash flow is insane and stocks would still be cheap even with $60 oil. A once in a generation if not lifetime opportunity is setting up in the oil markets. Oil is not anywhere close to topping out in price. I'm using the run to move up my retirement date up 5 years in the hopes that I can spend my days drinking rum and riding my bicycle on the trails of the US.
Good time to buy bio's, XBI ETF dropped from 174.79 in Feb '21 to hit 85.31 today.
Monthly 100MA (yellow line) is 82.79 and has never fallen below since it started in '06. Came within 19 cents of it during pandemic then bounced fast to ATH. So now I'm sure it will fall below tomorrow.
Also, had second highest volume day ever Monday. I read somewhere covid generated $88 billion from the pandemic, expecting some buyouts with that cash and many bio's at 52 week low or ATL.
Monthly 100MA (yellow line) is 82.79 and has never fallen below since it started in '06. Came within 19 cents of it during pandemic then bounced fast to ATH. So now I'm sure it will fall below tomorrow.
Also, had second highest volume day ever Monday. I read somewhere covid generated $88 billion from the pandemic, expecting some buyouts with that cash and many bio's at 52 week low or ATL.
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Nice looking chart, but I don't think it's done falling yet. Most of the companies in the index are not profitable, which in itself isn't a big deal, but what's different about this pullback from the others is inflation. Inflation is driving sector rotation. Companies with high valuations, and especially ones that aren't profitable are getting hammered.
If it were me, I'd let it settle down and make a new base before establishing or adding to a position as there's no near term catalyst to send it up other than a dead cat bounce. Fighting a stampede never ends well.
