2022-2023 MBB computer projections thread

[AllN4ISU]

It is dated 3:39pm on Nov 26, so after UNC win but before the loss

Lunardi last updated his Bracketology on Nov 22nd, the article breaking down his bracket was written on Nov 26

Men's Bracketology: Bid stealers leave out Pitt, Virginia, Seton Hall, Indiana State

Most years the

www.espn.com

 

[Halincandenza]

They are smoke and mirrors, because I can predict most outcomes for them. I make a ton of money betting on or against Iowa men's basketball.

The script:

Schedule a bunch of cupcakes in the non con, score 100+ points and win by 30+. Happens almost every time, without fail, for the last 4-5 years of Fran's tenure. Gives the impression of a fast, exciting and explosive team to watch.

Run into a team or two in the non con that might not be as 'basketball skilled' as Iowa's always-veteran team, but they out-athlete and out hustle them. See Iowa State last year, TCU this year, and almost lost to a meh-looking Clemson too.

Do decent to good in the conference season. These games are harder to predict, because they actually do match up well with a lot of Big 10 opponents. The conference has been poverty as of recent years when it comes to doing well in the tournament.

March - flame out before or during the first weekend.

It has become the norm for Fran. It is predictable. It looks good on paper, but it is smoke and mirrors.

I think you have a weird definition of smoke and mirrors. It is more that they just are who they are.

 

[Cyinthenorth]

I think you have a weird definition of smoke and mirrors. It is more that they just are who they are.

Blame the media I guess then, for bloated opinions and crowning their players with these awards they keep getting. It's all fraudulent to me. Their fans are pretty bought in to what Fran is selling too, at least on social media.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Alright guys let's not turn this into an ISR thread.

**** Iowa.

With that being said and agreed upon by all, we return to our regularly-scheduled programming --



The UConn loss put a dent in the projections but only a small one. Having a 3/4 chance of making the NCAA tournament after Portland looks nice and indicates a solid performance. This isn't the best team in the country or the conference, but they're good enough to compete every night.

 

[AuH2O]

How did those teams fare in the NCAA Tournament?

Smoke and mirrors.

When you have annual Big 10 promoter Seth Davis calling out the committee for yet again putting in too many Big 10 teams and seeding them too high, you know it’s bad.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Iowa State slightly underperformed expectations last night -- the computers projected a win in the low-20s but got one in the teens -- so the numbers below have decreased slightly. I don't think that is much of a deal, though, given this is just the computers reacting to the (still) small sample size.



Going 1-1 against St. John's and Iowa would put them in good shape. Going 2-0 against those two would put them in excellent shape before the Big 12. Most of the Big 12 games are going to be like last year -- a series of "coin flips" with win expectations between 40% and 60% on any given night. Going to come down if they can pull off enough close games to get to 19 or 20 wins and therefore play in the NCAA tournament.

 

[Cyclonepride]

Iowa State slightly underperformed expectations last night -- the computers projected a win in the low-20s but got one in the teens -- so the numbers below have decreased slightly. I don't think that is much of a deal, though, given this is just the computers reacting to the (still) small sample size.

View attachment 106200

Going 1-1 against St. John's and Iowa would put them in good shape. Going 2-0 against those two would put them in excellent shape before the Big 12. Most of the Big 12 games are going to be like last year -- a series of "coin flips" with win expectations between 40% and 60% on any given night. Going to come down if they can pull off enough close games to get to 19 or 20 wins and therefore play in the NCAA tournament.

View attachment 106201

Went down with a win lol

 

[CloniesForLife]

Went down with a win lol

A win that was pretty ugly offensively for awhile against a poor opponent so not totally shocking the computers didn't love it. By the end of the year it won't matter though.

 

[cyfan92]

TourneyCast - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank

T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.

www.barttorvik.com

 

[NWICY]

Iowa State slightly underperformed expectations last night -- the computers projected a win in the low-20s but got one in the teens -- so the numbers below have decreased slightly. I don't think that is much of a deal, though, given this is just the computers reacting to the (still) small sample size.

View attachment 106200

Going 1-1 against St. John's and Iowa would put them in good shape. Going 2-0 against those two would put them in excellent shape before the Big 12. Most of the Big 12 games are going to be like last year -- a series of "coin flips" with win expectations between 40% and 60% on any given night. Going to come down if they can pull off enough close games to get to 19 or 20 wins and therefore play in the NCAA tournament.

View attachment 106201

33rd team in the country 68 teams get in I would think we are higher than 75% chance to get in. That being said there is a lot of season left and many games to be played.

 

[Malty Flannel]

Iowa State slightly underperformed expectations last night -- the computers projected a win in the low-20s but got one in the teens -- so the numbers below have decreased slightly. I don't think that is much of a deal, though, given this is just the computers reacting to the (still) small sample size.

View attachment 106200

Going 1-1 against St. John's and Iowa would put them in good shape. Going 2-0 against those two would put them in excellent shape before the Big 12. Most of the Big 12 games are going to be like last year -- a series of "coin flips" with win expectations between 40% and 60% on any given night. Going to come down if they can pull off enough close games to get to 19 or 20 wins and therefore play in the NCAA tournament.

View attachment 106201

It’s interesting how much weight the computer placed on playing at home. Better odds to beat Baylor at home than OU in the road

 

[isutrevman]

33rd team in the country 68 teams get in I would think we are higher than 75% chance to get in. That being said there is a lot of season left and many games to be played.

That's not how it works though since there are a lot of teams ranked worse than 68 that get in by winning their conference, taking spots from the top 68. You pretty much have to be in the top 45 or so to get in without winning the Big 12 tournament.

 

[Sigmapolis]

33rd team in the country 68 teams get in I would think we are higher than 75% chance to get in. That being said there is a lot of season left and many games to be played.

There are 32 conferences. Each as an AQ -- leaving 68 minus 32 = 36 at-large bids.

Most AQs are going to go to teams that wouldn't have a prayer of making the tournament given the weakness of their conferences and schedules. The P6 conference champions plus Gonzaga and maybe one other team (e.g., Houston) are going to be in the top 25 of the rankings, so that would move Iowa State up to #25 in the rankings of teams that are going to need an at-large bid to the tournament.

Add in there always being 2-3 "bid stealers" -- maybe a "meh" team on the wrong side of the bubble from a P6 conference or a bad team from a bad conference that has one team good enough to earn an AQ even without winning its conference tournament -- and you end up with ~30-32 at-large spots.

Iowa State only having 5-10 teams "under" it towards earning that at-large spot leaving them with roughly a 3/4 chance of making the NCAA tournament seems reasonable to me. Iowa State would be close to a 100% if you just took the top 68 teams on KenPom, but you have to account for those AQ teams from low-major conferences sucking up all the seeds between #16 and roughly #12 first.

It’s interesting how much weight the computer placed on playing at home. Better odds to beat Baylor at home than OU in the road

Even giving a +/- swing of say three for home court is a lot of points in a conference with so many teams that are so close to each other. Just about every game is going to be won or lost after the last under-four.

 

[Sigmapolis]

That's not how it works though since there are a lot of teams ranked worse than 68 that get in by winning their conference, taking spots from the top 68. You pretty much have to be in the top 45 or so to get in without winning the Big 12 tournament.

For context, the best team in the Torvik rankings last year to *not* make the tournament was Oklahoma (#29). Some other notables in the 26 through 50 range that did not make it last year...

#29 Oklahoma
#32 Texas A&M
#33 Oklahoma State (ineligible, would have been interesting to see if they would have)
#35 Wake Forest
#42 Washington State
#44 Dayton
#45 Syracuse
#48 Xavier
#50 St. John's

Iowa State was #43 in the final rankings, for context. In the 25 teams from 26 through 50, only 16 of them made the tournament. Putting 16/25 = 64% chance to make it. Iowa State's analytics are that of a team who could make the NCAA tournament but is far from guaranteed to do so if it doesn't have enough raw wins or enough high-quality wins in the committee's eyes. Hence why you only grade out at a 73% chance of making the tournament even as the #33 team in the country and #6 in the Big 12. They have a lot of work to do.

 

[CyPunch]

Next two game stretch is massive

2-0: Another amazing non-conference by Otz and company that gives you wiggle room in conference play.

1-1: Treading water. Still outperformed preseason expectations but likely need 8 Big 12 wins to dance.

0-2: Gave back some good will earned in Portland. Add Tre King and figure out a way to go .500 in the Big 12.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Next two game stretch is massive

2-0: Another amazing non-conference by Otz and company that gives you wiggle room in conference play.

1-1: Treading water. Still outperformed preseason expectations but likely need 8 Big 12 wins to dance.

0-2: Gave back some good will earned in Portland. Add Tre King and figure out a way to go .500 in the Big 12.

I will agree but note that Missouri is not a gimme game this year.

They finished #153 on Torvik last year. They were one of the worst P6 teams in the country, and the game was in Hilton. Slapping them down by 17 was a nice break from the Big 12 grind.

Not so this year. Iowa State is #34 on Torvik removing the preseason biases, and Missouri is #61. They are not a good team, but they are not a raging dumpster fire like they were last year. Missouri is still undefeated with its nicest win on the road over Wichita State in overtime. I am sure they will have the game against Iowa State circled as one they need to pick up if they have ambitions of making the tournament themselves.

Plus, the game is in Columbia, and I am sure TJ and the squad is going to be beat up and tired from Big 12 play. Torvik is projecting Missouri to win that game 74-71 as of right now. The last time Iowa State played there was to open the 2017/18 season up, and it was a disaster (74-59 for the Tigers).

I think I would put it something like this if we include the Missouri game...

3-0 -- Awesome. In great shape for the NCAA tournament. Only lost to a great UConn squad.

2-1 -- Very good. On the path to the NCAA tournament if the Big 12 slate isn't a collapse.

1-2 -- Lost some pace. Going to have to steal a game or two in the Big 12.

0-3 -- ****. Going to need to finish 9-9 or even 10-8 in the Big 12 to make it.

 

[werdnamanhill]

I will agree but note that Missouri is not a gimme game this year.

They finished #153 on Torvik last year. They were one of the worst P6 teams in the country, and the game was in Hilton. Slapping them down by 17 was a nice break from the Big 12 grind.

Not so this year. Iowa State is #34 on Torvik removing the preseason biases, and Missouri is #61. They are not a good team, but they are not a raging dumpster fire like they were last year. Missouri is still undefeated with its nicest win on the road over Wichita State in overtime. I am sure they will have the game against Iowa State circled as one they need to pick up if they have ambitions of making the tournament themselves.

Plus, the game is in Columbia, and I am sure TJ and the squad is going to be beat up and tired from Big 12 play. Torvik is projecting Missouri to win that game 74-71 as of right now. The last time Iowa State played there was to open the 2017/18 season up, and it was a disaster (74-59 for the Tigers).

I think I would put it something like this if we include the Missouri game...

3-0 -- Awesome. In great shape for the NCAA tournament. Only lost to a great UConn squad.

2-1 -- Very good. On the path to the NCAA tournament if the Big 12 slate isn't a collapse.

1-2 -- Lost some pace. Going to have to steal a game or two in the Big 12.

0-3 -- ****. Going to need to finish 9-9 or even 10-8 in the Big 12 to make it.

Great points, good analysis.

It's all academic though. We are sweeping in KC.

 

[ClonesFTW]

The first NET ranking of the season is out, Iowa State at #22.

NCAA Statistics

 

[CoachHines3]

The first NET ranking of the season is out, Iowa State at #22.

NCAA Statistics

1-1 in Quad 1 (UNC, UCONN)

1-0 Quad 2 ( st johns)

1-0 Quad 3 (villanova)

4-0 in Quad 4

 

[Cyclonepride]

1-1 in Quad 1 (UNC, UCONN)

1-0 Quad 2 ( st johns)

1-0 Quad 3 (villanova)

4-0 in Quad 4

I think UNC will eventually end up in Quad 1, UConn definitely should. Hopefully St Johns has a great year and ends up Quad 1, but more likely it will stay a 2. I think Villanova will end up as a 2 as well (just beat OU, so they're getting it together).