2022-2023 MBB computer projections thread

  • After Iowa State won the Big 12, a Cyclone made a wonderful offer to We Will that now increases our match. Now all gifts up to $400,000 between now and the Final 4 will be matched. Please consider giving at We Will Collective.
    This notice can be dismissed using the upper right corner X button.

HFCS

Well-Known Member
Aug 13, 2010
67,176
54,236
113
LA LA Land
Are 6 wins in a month vs NCAA tournament teams smoke and mirrors?

On a macro level as a program they are def smoke and mirrors under Fran.

Just during his 12 year run all three of ISU’s coaches have won more big games and hardware just within that span. It’s really not even comparable. I’m guessing it’s how they feel when we act as if our football program is their peer over a dozen years.

They tend to bury most bad and many average teams, score predicting ratings love that. In an individual game against a team with athletic perimeter defenders they can be exposed. I didn’t happen to watch their Spider-Loss last year but I’m assuming that’s what did them in.

Carver would be a much better atmosphere if their program had teeth and wasn’t smoke & mirrors. It definitely was when I grew up an Iowa fan in 80s and early 90s.
 

Sigmapolis

Minister of Economy
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Aug 10, 2011
24,876
36,700
113
Waukee
So the computer has us losing to Missouri in the non-con? How are they this year?

 

CyPunch

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
May 3, 2019
4,156
10,336
113
Sandy Springs, GA
So the computer has us losing to Missouri in the non-con? How are they this year?

They are off to a 9-0 start with the major caveat being they've played the 360th rated non-conference schedule in the country (out of 363). They have one decent win on the road @ Wichita State.

Early on, they score a lot of points but are terrible defensively. I think it's fair to be in "wait and see" mode with them until they play some real competition.

Their next 5 games: Kansas, UCF, Illinois, Kentucky, and Arkansas
 
  • Informative
Reactions: Malty Flannel

CloniesForLife

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Apr 22, 2015
13,721
17,336
113
They are off to a 9-0 start with the major caveat being they've played the 360th rated non-conference schedule in the country (out of 363). They have one decent win on the road @ Wichita State.

Early on, they score a lot of points but are terrible defensively. I think it's fair to be in "wait and see" mode with them until they play some real competition.

Their next 5 games: Kansas, UCF, Illinois, Kentucky, and Arkansas
Score a lot and terrible defensively is a matchup I like for us. Especially for an untested team
 

CyPunch

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
May 3, 2019
4,156
10,336
113
Sandy Springs, GA
Score a lot and terrible defensively is a matchup I like for us. Especially for an untested team

Yeah, they've given up 91 and 89 to a couple low majors. That's pretty bad.

It looks like they don't rebound well at all nor defend the 3pt line. The only positive of their analytical profile on D is they force turnovers but also foul a lot.

They're probably due for a humbling these next few weeks.
 
  • Like
Reactions: CloniesForLife

Sigmapolis

Minister of Economy
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Aug 10, 2011
24,876
36,700
113
Waukee
Blah. Took on some water. Nothing the pumps can't fix in the Big 12 though.

1670620425347.png

I think the magic number is 19 --

1670620452135.png

To be safe before KC they need --

7-2 right now
3 cupcake games I'm going to assume are wins
19 games remaining (road trip to Missouri and 18 games in the Big 12)
Need 9 wins

So...

W against Missouri and 8-10 against the Big 12.
L against Missouri and 9-9 against the Big 12.

Otherwise, they're going to need a win or two in KC.

Somebody want to make a "You guys stink!" cutout with 12 pieces to tear off...?

:D
 

Sigmapolis

Minister of Economy
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Aug 10, 2011
24,876
36,700
113
Waukee
Live from Gravitate Coworking in Windsor Heights, Iowa (and I thought I would give one of the site's sponsors a shoutout after hearing about them on podcasts so often) here...

There is not much change from defeating McNeese State, which you would expect (#348 on Torvik out of 363 Division 1 programs, so bottom 4% or so of college basketball teams) even if it was a 37-point drubbing where even Eli King was in on the action. Here is the update from Team Rankings --

1670855857120.png

Looking ahead to the conference season --

1670856043807.png
 
Last edited:

Sigmapolis

Minister of Economy
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Aug 10, 2011
24,876
36,700
113
Waukee
Profile comparison, obviously we haven't hit conference play yet but an early indicator.

View attachment 106755

The '22 and '23 ISU teams are about as close of clones to each other as can you have.

The consistency between the two seasons (so far) despite the extensive roster changes is...

Funny? Hilarious even?
Frustrating?
Admirable?
Encouraging to keep the boat stable despite so many changes and a relatively paucity of talent?
Maybe all of the above?
 

Sigmapolis

Minister of Economy
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Aug 10, 2011
24,876
36,700
113
Waukee
Sorry for only posting this now. Had a busy day before the holiday --

1671500733380.png

Down 4% -- might seem odd it went down after a win. It was a "meh" win against a bad team, though, so I'm sure the computers might be penalizing the Cyclones slightly in the projections there. There could have been some second- and third-order shifts from other teams on the schedule, too.

I still think 19 wins is the magic number.

9-2 right now
one more free one against Nebraska-Omaha
10-2 assumed

So either...

8-10 against the Big 12 and beat Missouri
9-9 against the Big 12 and lose to Missouri

If short of that, then going to need to win a game or two in Kansas City to make it happen.
 

Gunnerclone

Well-Known Member
Jul 16, 2010
68,673
68,573
113
DSM
Sorry for only posting this now. Had a busy day before the holiday --

View attachment 107071

Down 4% -- might seem odd it went down after a win. It was a "meh" win against a bad team, though, so I'm sure the computers might be penalizing the Cyclones slightly in the projections there. There could have been some second- and third-order shifts from other teams on the schedule, too.

I still think 19 wins is the magic number.

9-2 right now
one more free one against Nebraska-Omaha
10-2 assumed

So either...

8-10 against the Big 12 and beat Missouri
9-9 against the Big 12 and lose to Missouri

If short of that, then going to need to win a game or two in Kansas City to make it happen.

I feel good about handling mizzou after watching them a couple times.we can beat them just playing our normal level. A slightly decent shooting night and it won’t be a problem.
 

Sigmapolis

Minister of Economy
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Aug 10, 2011
24,876
36,700
113
Waukee
I feel good about handling mizzou after watching them a couple times.we can beat them just playing our normal level. A slightly decent shooting night and it won’t be a problem.

Missouri is favored by 0.8 points (73-72 if you round to the nearest whole numbers) on Torvik right now. Iowa State has a 47% chance of winning that game per the same source -- basically a coin flip.

That game scares me. Missouri is not good, but they are not the tire fire they were last year. The game is down in Columbia. They smacked the Cyclones around 74-59 in the opening game of the '17-'18 season. We've yet to win a road game this season (only played on true road game, but we all know how poorly that went). Our guys are going to be beat up and ground down by the absolutely relentless Big 12 schedule, with a home game against K-State right before Mizzou and a trip to Lubbock for a street fight coming two days later.

Missouri is not going to be easy, but it would take a ton of pressure off the Big 12 slate.
 

cyclonedave25

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Jul 10, 2007
21,220
10,615
113
Chicago, IL
giphy.gif
 

madguy30

Well-Known Member
Nov 15, 2011
49,839
46,580
113
I would not have figured yesterday was one of the 9ish conference wins that I'd guess solidifies a tourney spot so hopefully they're ahead of things a bit and can sustain enough.
 
  • Like
Reactions: DurangoCy

Sigmapolis

Minister of Economy
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Aug 10, 2011
24,876
36,700
113
Waukee
I would not have figured yesterday was one of the 9ish conference wins that I'd guess solidifies a tourney spot so hopefully they're ahead of things a bit and can sustain enough.

Torvik gives them a #10 seed with a 87.7% chance to make the tournament with the Baylor W.

Flip the Baylor game back to a loss, and you have "last four in" playing in Dayton.

So yes, that was a important swing game to start things off. Every home game against a good team and road game against a weaker team is like that the rest of the season. The home games against the weaker teams and road games against say Kansas and Texas have much more certain outcomes.

Win at Oklahoma for the 2-0 Big 12 start and we're up to a #7 seed and a 95.6% chance!
 
Last edited: