Running the code, there are some minor variations on that, but essentially: yeah, that's the only way.
2020 Big 12 Championship Game Computer Projection
- Thread starter Dale
- Start date
My simplified summary is that we make the champship if we go 3-0, 2-1 if the loss isn't to Texas (not a 100% scenario but high probabilities), or some level of chaos with upsets for the other top teams if we go 1-2 and/or lose to Texas.
Dale, thanks for doing these computations. Is there a simple answer why your algorithm gives such a different answer than ESPN'S Power index where they say the best odds are OU and Texas.
The FPI looks like a joke this year.
The FPI looks like a joke this year.
Last edited:
If we beat KSt and Texas, WVA will never be in doubt.
Next two are coin flips. Splitting those two means we'll need Kst or Texas to hand the other their 3rd loss in the finally.
You never know. I'd like to win the next two and know that a Big 12 championship game appearance is locked up before we play West Virginia. I like ISU in that game, but they're good enough to beat us if we don't play well that day, regardless of what we do in the next two games.
Two reasons, both related to this: Their ranking system views OU and Texas as way better than the rest of the conference in making game predictions. That means (1) it decreases ESPN's view of ISU's odds of getting to the Championship Game and (2) since ESPN only gives the odds of *winning* the conference, and since they believe ISU will be severe underdogs if they make the Championship -- 10 points to OU -- that sends them down even further by that metric.
At this point I only care about beating kstate. Keep picking them off.
Does the code account for scoring differential impossibilities? I thought about this scenario more today and it's impossible for ISU to finish last in scoring differential between ISU, OU, and OSU because we're +4 points, OSU is only +3 points, and this scenario would require OSU to lose and be only +2 or worse. Since the lowest team would be eliminated, ISU would be safe.
Once it gets to scoring differential, the code punts and randomly picks a winner. That happens in (right now) about 0.6% of cases.
ISU's not out of the woods in a three-way tie, though. Each round of a tiebreaker only picks one team, so if OU wins the three-way tiebreaker, they'd end up as the #1 seed and then we'd go back to the first tiebreaker where OSU, by virtue of beating ISU, would be the #2 seed.
As I read the tiebreakers, the team with the lowest scoring differential is eliminated rather than the team with the highest score differential being #1 and it going to head to head for spot #2.
From the Big 12 site:
Tiebreaker Procedure. If two teams are tied for first place both teams will participate in the championship game and the winner of the head-to-head will be the #1 seed. If more than two teams tie for first place, the tiebreaker procedures below will be applied separately, to identify each participant in the championship game.
In the event two (or more teams) tie for second or any subsequent position, the tiebreaker procedures below will be used to break all ties as necessary. For the avoidance of doubt, only Conference records will be used throughout the process:
a. If two teams are tied, the winner of the regular-season game between the two tied teams shall prevail.
b. If three or more teams are tied, steps 1 through 4 will be followed until a determination is made. If only two teams remain tied after any step, the winner of the regular season game between the two tied teams shall prevail.
1. The Conference records of the three or more teams will be compared against each other in a “mini round-robin” format.
2. The Conference records of the three or more teams will be compared against the remaining team(s) in the Conference
standings from top to bottom.
a. When comparing against the remaining teams in the Conference standings any two-way ties will be broken by head-to-head
competition before the comparison begins.
b. If more than a two-way tie exists amongst the remaining teams in the Conference standings, the record against the collective
tied teams as a group will be used.
3. Scoring differential among the tied teams. The team or teams with the lowest difference between points scored and points
allowed in games vs. the tied teams is eliminated from consideration.
4. Draw (In the event steps 1-3 cannot break a multi-team tie the prevailing team or teams will be determined by draw at the
Conference office).
In the event tiebreaking procedures are unsuccessful and a draw is necessary in determining any portion of seeding,
the following procedures will be used:
a. The draw will be conducted in public or with media attendance.
b. Institutions involved in the drawing have the right to have a local representative in attendance at the drawing.
c. A single slip of paper for each institution (with name or logo) will be placed in a container and will be drawn in order
of seeding from highest to lowest.
You sure about that on scoring differential? The tiebreaker procedures read as if the team with the lowest differential is eliminated, not that the top one remains and the bottom two start over.
3. Scoring differential among the tied teams. The team or teams with the lowest difference between points scored and points is eliminated.
Sorry, yep, I was (partially) mistaken. So what would actually happen if it were OU > ISU > OSU or ISU > OU > OSU is:
- OSU would be eliminated from that round of the tiebreaker as the team with the lowest scoring differential.
- At that point, since "if only two teams remain tied after any step, the winner of the regular season game between the two tied teams shall prevail," ISU would be the #1 seed.
- Since "the tiebreaker procedures below will be applied separately, to identify each participant in the championship game," we start over from the top with OU and OSU tied. Since OU beat OSU, OU is the #2 seed.
As I read the tiebreakers, the team with the lowest scoring differential is eliminated rather than the team with the highest score differential being #1 and it going to head to head for spot #2.
From the Big 12 site:
Tiebreaker Procedure. If two teams are tied for first place both teams will participate in the championship game and the winner of the head-to-head will be the #1 seed. If more than two teams tie for first place, the tiebreaker procedures below will be applied separately, to identify each participant in the championship game.
In the event two (or more teams) tie for second or any subsequent position, the tiebreaker procedures below will be used to break all ties as necessary. For the avoidance of doubt, only Conference records will be used throughout the process:
a. If two teams are tied, the winner of the regular-season game between the two tied teams shall prevail.
b. If three or more teams are tied, steps 1 through 4 will be followed until a determination is made. If only two teams remain tied after any step, the winner of the regular season game between the two tied teams shall prevail.
1. The Conference records of the three or more teams will be compared against each other in a “mini round-robin” format.
2. The Conference records of the three or more teams will be compared against the remaining team(s) in the Conference
standings from top to bottom.
a. When comparing against the remaining teams in the Conference standings any two-way ties will be broken by head-to-head
competition before the comparison begins.
b. If more than a two-way tie exists amongst the remaining teams in the Conference standings, the record against the collective
tied teams as a group will be used.
3. Scoring differential among the tied teams. The team or teams with the lowest difference between points scored and points
allowed in games vs. the tied teams is eliminated from consideration.
4. Draw (In the event steps 1-3 cannot break a multi-team tie the prevailing team or teams will be determined by draw at the
Conference office).
In the event tiebreaking procedures are unsuccessful and a draw is necessary in determining any portion of seeding,
the following procedures will be used:
a. The draw will be conducted in public or with media attendance.
b. Institutions involved in the drawing have the right to have a local representative in attendance at the drawing.
c. A single slip of paper for each institution (with name or logo) will be placed in a container and will be drawn in order
of seeding from highest to lowest.
Holy cow. Who wrote those tiebreaker rules? Surely with all the university publishing houses, someone could have provided an editor!
That said, I think there's still one very unlikely situation where ISU could still not make the Championship Game with an OU/ISU/OSU tie where ISU's loss is to West Virginia:
- West Virginia beats TCU.
- Baylor and Texas beat KSU.
- Kansas beats Texas somehow.
Except in that case the UT/WV tie gets broken before the comparison. So it'd be record vs UT, then record vs WV, then record vs KSU.
vs UT: ISU (W), OU (W), OSU (L); OSU out
Back to HTH: ISU (W), OU (L); ISU #1, OU #2
a. When comparing against the remaining teams in the Conference standings any two-way ties will be broken by head-to-head competition before the comparison begins.
b. If more than a two-way tie exists amongst the remaining teams in the Conference standings, the record against the collective tied teams as a group will be used.
I see where you're both going. I think Dale meant Texas loses out and K-State only beats Texas but loses to ISU and Baylor.
In that case ISU, OU, and OSU are 7-2 and WVU and KSU are 5-4. Texas is 4-5. WVU wins the tiebreaker over KSU for #4 and ISU is the only 7-2 team that lost to them.
ISU has beat one team with a winning record OU 5-2 (at home) when they weren't playing very well. The other 4 victories were against teams with a combined record of 6-18. ISU needs to prove it the next 3 games, I hope they will.
