Hey, y'all. I've done this the past three years, and we're far enough into the season (and Iowa State's doing well enough!) that I think it makes sense running the scenarios again.
Basically, this is 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the rest of the Big 12 football season in Python, using Ken Massey’s rating system for the odds for every remaining game.
Here are the chances for each team to make the Big 12 Championship Game. The parenthetical is their regular-season chances of finishing 1st and 2nd.
Iowa St.: 47.9% (26.6% 1st, 21.3% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 46.1% (27.1% 1st, 19.0% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 42.7% (22.7% 1st, 20.1% 2nd)
Texas: 16.4% (6.9% 1st, 9.5% 2nd)
West Virginia: 15.8% (5.8% 1st, 10.0% 2nd)
Baylor: 14.4% (6.2% 1st, 8.2% 2nd)
Oklahoma: 11.8% (3.5% 1st, 8.3% 2nd)
TCU: 4.8% (1.2% 1st, 3.5% 2nd)
Texas Tech: 0.1% (0.0% 1st, 0.1% 2nd)
Kansas: c'mon
And here are the Championship Game matchups that have at least a 2% chance of happening:
Iowa St./Oklahoma St.: 15.6%
Iowa St./Kansas St.: 14.8%
Kansas St./Oklahoma St.: 13.3%
Oklahoma St./West Virginia: 5.6%
Oklahoma St./Texas: 4.7%
Iowa St./Texas: 4.2%
Baylor/Iowa St.: 4.0%
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 3.9%
Iowa St./West Virginia: 3.8%
Baylor/Oklahoma St.: 3.7%
Kansas St./Texas: 3.6%
Baylor/Kansas St.: 3.3%
Kansas St./Oklahoma: 3.3%
Kansas St./West Virginia: 3.1%
Oklahoma/Oklahoma St.: 2.3%
(Slight boring caveat: The program only goes through the first two tiebreakers, since the third tiebreaker involves points and would be a pain in the butt to model. That said, the first two tiebreakers -- and situations with no tiebreaker necessary -- covered 99.3% of the simulations, so the odds wouldn’t change much.)
And finally, here’s Iowa State’s chances of ending up at any given record and their chances of making the championship game at that record:
ISU record chances:
3-7: 0.8%
4-6: 7.0%
5-5: 21.6%
6-4: 32.7%
7-3: 26.0%
8-2: 10.3%
9-1: 1.6%
ISU odds of championship game at record:
5-5: 0.8%
6-4: 35.0%
7-3: 93.9%
8-2: 100.0%
9-1: 100.0%
Anyone want the odds for different scenarios, just ask -- they're easy to do.
Basically, this is 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the rest of the Big 12 football season in Python, using Ken Massey’s rating system for the odds for every remaining game.
Here are the chances for each team to make the Big 12 Championship Game. The parenthetical is their regular-season chances of finishing 1st and 2nd.
Iowa St.: 47.9% (26.6% 1st, 21.3% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 46.1% (27.1% 1st, 19.0% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 42.7% (22.7% 1st, 20.1% 2nd)
Texas: 16.4% (6.9% 1st, 9.5% 2nd)
West Virginia: 15.8% (5.8% 1st, 10.0% 2nd)
Baylor: 14.4% (6.2% 1st, 8.2% 2nd)
Oklahoma: 11.8% (3.5% 1st, 8.3% 2nd)
TCU: 4.8% (1.2% 1st, 3.5% 2nd)
Texas Tech: 0.1% (0.0% 1st, 0.1% 2nd)
Kansas: c'mon
And here are the Championship Game matchups that have at least a 2% chance of happening:
Iowa St./Oklahoma St.: 15.6%
Iowa St./Kansas St.: 14.8%
Kansas St./Oklahoma St.: 13.3%
Oklahoma St./West Virginia: 5.6%
Oklahoma St./Texas: 4.7%
Iowa St./Texas: 4.2%
Baylor/Iowa St.: 4.0%
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 3.9%
Iowa St./West Virginia: 3.8%
Baylor/Oklahoma St.: 3.7%
Kansas St./Texas: 3.6%
Baylor/Kansas St.: 3.3%
Kansas St./Oklahoma: 3.3%
Kansas St./West Virginia: 3.1%
Oklahoma/Oklahoma St.: 2.3%
(Slight boring caveat: The program only goes through the first two tiebreakers, since the third tiebreaker involves points and would be a pain in the butt to model. That said, the first two tiebreakers -- and situations with no tiebreaker necessary -- covered 99.3% of the simulations, so the odds wouldn’t change much.)
And finally, here’s Iowa State’s chances of ending up at any given record and their chances of making the championship game at that record:
ISU record chances:
3-7: 0.8%
4-6: 7.0%
5-5: 21.6%
6-4: 32.7%
7-3: 26.0%
8-2: 10.3%
9-1: 1.6%
ISU odds of championship game at record:
5-5: 0.8%
6-4: 35.0%
7-3: 93.9%
8-2: 100.0%
9-1: 100.0%
Anyone want the odds for different scenarios, just ask -- they're easy to do.
