2018-2019 computer projections thread

[Sigmapolis]

Great, we can later define what is a great team, and what makes a year a success. But until then, it is a weak rebuttal to call on season long efficiency rankings given the huge disconnect to how wining anything that’s relevant actually happens.

I do not think I disagreed with you that some of these losses are frustrating, somewhat inexplicable, and ruining what could have been a special season where we had the inside track on potentially winning the Big 12 regular season championship.

Like I said, computer ratings do not put banners in the rafters. Wins do.

I think you are trying to use my point in #1 above to address #2 -- mixing those points to your ends. The point of #1 is, while the TCU and Baylor games suck and likely take us out of the conference running, this is not a bad basketball team going forward at all.

I do not know how that is a weak refutation of your point. It is not trying to be a refutation. It is trying to say, if we are doing it in more the qualitative way...

"This is still a very good team* with lots to play for regarding seeding for the postseason, in Kansas City and in the NCAA tournament. This season is not over."

*and my evidence for this is the computers

Your Vegas and predictive benefit of the models are true, and they’re very helpful if otherwise betting blind, but this point victim to the same disconnect ailment as to why a great metrical ranking can not equate to a great year.

I agree with this. We will see where it ends up.

 

[herbicide]

I apologize -- kind of on the warpath after last night. I think it was collectively frustrating.

I think we mostly agree on these issues, too.

Do you know a way to quantify a team's consistency or not? I would think just averaging the Barttovik game ratings would be one way to do it.

The more variance in your ratings, the less consistent of a team, no?

Do you objectively know that ISU is less consistent than other teams, though?

Take a look at our game chart on Barttovik...

IOWA STATE

View attachment 62527

Compared to Kansas, who has a very similar rating overall...

KANSAS

View attachment 62528

Are they really that different?

Both have some great games, a lot of very good ones, a few meh ones, and a couple clunkers.

I almost posted that graphic in my earlier post (just the ISU one)

To my eyes, there are differences, namely the losses under a 70 rating. For instance, give me KU's lowest grade score loss (70) in the ISU vs TCU and it'd almost certainly been an ISU win.

1. Without the TCU loss, we wouldn't be having this conversation.
2. ALL of ISU's clunkers in conference have been at home. KU on the road.
3. Last night's loss graded out as a 70. Subjectively of course, I'd venture to say most would call it a worse performance than TCU, because of the context (2nd home loss to major underdog)

To the 3rd point, that is where the computer polls have perhaps their largest flaws, they can't account for context; not all w/l carry the same meaning to the team's season.

 

[FinalFourCy]

Like I said, computer ratings do not put banners in the rafters. Wins do.

I think you are trying to use my point in #1 above to address #2 -- mixing those points to your ends. The point of #1 is, while the TCU and Baylor games suck and likely take us out of the conference running, this is not a bad basketball team going forward at all.

I’m saying it’s contradictory to slip in metrics into a general response to frustrations, plus “but the the metrics have us xy so this isn’t a bad basketball team going forward” is hollow- Not only are those metrics off from the context of what most are viewing as disappointing, no one has said “this is a bad basketball team going forward”.

This team isn’t a bad basketball team going forward, or in the past. I think the frustrations are that it could be worse than that- as in this is a disappointing team, or will rather be one. By metrics, eye test, W-L, and Big 12/NCAA finish

 

[Sigmapolis]

I’m saying it’s contradictory to slip in metrics into a general response to frustrations, plus “but the the metrics have us xy so this isn’t a bad basketball team going forward” is hollow- Not only are those metrics off from the context of what most are viewing as disappointing, no one has said “this is a bad basketball team going forward”.

This team isn’t a bad basketball team going forward, or in the past. I think the frustrations are that it could be worse than that- it is and will be a disappointing one imo. By metrics, eye test, W-L, and Big 12/NCAA finish

This team could lose its first game in KC or win the tournament.

This team could lose in the first weekend or challenge for a Final Four.

I think all of us here would agree with both of those statements. We do not know.

Worrying about a downside that has not happened yet late this season, even after a frustrating loss, is silly. Yes, we are probably out of the Big 12 race, but the bad loss to TCU/Baylor does not prove we are going to disappoint on all fronts any more than the win in Lubbock/Manhattan proved our wildest postseason dreams were going to come true.

The computers just give you a cloud of probability around the likelihoods.

 

[Sigmapolis]

I almost posted that graphic in my earlier post (just the ISU one)

To my eyes, there are differences, namely the losses under a 70 rating. For instance, give me KU's lowest grade score loss (70) in the ISU vs TCU and it'd almost certainly been an ISU win.

1. Without the TCU loss, we wouldn't be having this conversation.
2. ALL of ISU's clunkers in conference have been at home. KU on the road.
3. Last night's loss graded out as a 70. Subjectively of course, I'd venture to say most would call it a worse performance than TCU, because of the context (2nd home loss to major underdog)

To the 3rd point, that is where the computer polls have perhaps their largest flaws, they can't account for context; not all w/l carry the same meaning to the team's season.

(1.) This is true -- much depends on the binary W-L outcome.

(2.) Barttovik adjusts for home court in the ratings/scores.

Winning 84-70 at home and doing the same against the same team on the road gives you a better score on the road compared to at home.

Neutral sites are, of course, somewhere in the middle.

Our score from last night was lower because it was in Hilton. If we had inexplicable decided to play Baylor in Oklahoma City and exactly everything else about the game was the same, then Barttovik would have given us a better score for it.

I realize we are inconsistent. But do we have an objective quantification of that inconsistency relative to other Big 12 teams or peer teams in the rankings? It may be the case we are worse than other schools, but I would just like to see some harder numbers about that, rather than eyeballing only one comparison (with Kansas) and trying to extrapolate from that.

(3.) Baylor is better than TCU and it was a closer game.

The TCU game was worse basketball. Baylor just stings more because of recency and because we were so jacked after the KSU game that we were back in the Big 12 race.

I do realize your point about the larger context, though.

If you are going to argue from that perspective, though, objectively, both games count for the same L. Both hurt our chances of winning the conference title equally.

 

[FinalFourCy]

Worrying about a downside that has not happened yet late this season, even after a frustrating loss, is silly. Yes, we are probably out of the Big 12 race, but the bad loss to TCU/Baylor does not prove we are going to disappoint on all fronts any more than the win in Lubbock/Manhattan proved our wildest postseason dreams were going to come true..

Now this is a true contraction!
This is a thread built on such “worry”, as well as excitement over the opposite side. Thinking (worrying) about possible future outcomes and best attempting to predict that heuristically is fundamentally not different than the subject of this thread.

Which is great, because both are critical components of what is being a fan of college basketball, or sports in general. If there wasn’t any worry, and assuming one is not part of the brain-dead sect of predeterminism, the frustrations would be worse, or we’d just check-in mid-April to see how things turned out.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Now this is a true contraction!
This is a thread built on such “worry”, as well as excitement over the opposite side. Thinking (worrying) about possible future outcomes and best attempting to predict that heuristically is fundamentally not different than the subject of this thread.

Which is great, because both are critical components of what is being a fan of college basketball, or sports in general. If there wasn’t any worry, and assuming one is not part of the brain-dead sect of predeterminism, the frustrations would be worse, or we’d just check-in mid-April to see how things turned out.

I enjoy the games for their own sake and judge them on their individual merits throughout the season. We have had some real fun ones; we have had some real bad ones.

I tend not to judge the outcome of the season until April, though.

I am still in the data-gathering phase for that part of assessing the season.

 

[surly]

In the end, teams are always remembered for what they do in the NCAA tournament. I'm still really optimistic about that, because this team can beat anyone when they have a sense of urgency (and yes, just like every other team in the tournament, they can lose to anyone too).

Ku is not. They are remembered for this streak, little else. And the team(s) that ends it will, likewise, be remembered solely for that reason.

 

[Cyclonepride]

Ku is not. They are remembered for this streak, little else. And the team(s) that ends it will be remembered solely for that reason.

With all due respect, I give no one **** what KU is remembered for.

 

[herbicide]

Ku is not. They are remembered for this streak, little else. And the team(s) that ends it will be remembered solely for that reason.

Short of an F4 or perhaps E8 run, I'd take a regular season SOLE title over any other outcome. Just my personal preference, your mileage may vary.

 

[surly]

Short of an F4 or perhaps E8 run, I'd take a regular season SOLE title over any other outcome. Just my personal preference, your mileage may vary.

Absolutely. The dance is such a crap shoot and everyone understands that fact. It's all about matchups, who's hot and who's not.

 

[every_yard]

Back up to 14 in the NET today.

 

[Cyclonepride]

Back up to 14 in the NET today.

Impossible. Don't let things like objective measurements deter you from sheer panic!

 

[brokenloginagain]

this thread was so much fun until about 9:45 pm tuesday.

because this team is so inconsistent, my expectations are now so much lower (as well as my stress level during games).

first round tourney loss or an elite eight would not surprise me at all - and if there's one team that is impossible to analyze quantitatively, its us!

 

[Cyclonepride]

this thread was so much fun until about 9:45 pm tuesday.

because this team is so inconsistent, my expectations are now so much lower (as well as my stress level during games).

first round tourney loss or an elite eight would not surprise me at all - and if there's one team that is impossible to analyze quantitatively, its us!

The tournament is almost always a crap shoot. I've seen teams that looked like a disaster waiting to happen go deep, and I've seen teams that were riding a wave make a quick exit. In a one and done tournament, anything can and does happen.

Whatever happens, I'm just excited to have the opportunity to see them play in it again, as last year just didn't feel the same (and it's my favorite sporting event of the year by a long shot).

 

[Halincandenza]

It’s possible this is a bout of midseason boredom, or we could be seeing signs that although our average is good, our floor is fatal and occurs too often to have breakthrough success. That would be a common theme in our tournament seasons.

They're all going to die!?! Also explains why they are having a hard time at Hilton this year. They are scared of the floor!

 

[Sigmapolis]

This team reminds me of the 2014-2015 team -- the Bryce Dejean-Jones experience.

Top-to-bottom, that team was absolutely loaded with talent...

Morris
Mitrou-Long
Thomas
Dejean-Jones
Nader
Hogue
Niang
McKay

There are five guys up there who eventually had NBA contracts. I feel like every one of those guys had an all-conference honor at some point in their careers. Two of them were deserving of all-American/CPOTY honors, even if they picked bad years going up against Buddy Hield and Frank Mason, both NPOTYs, in the race, and deserve their name in the rafters.

That team could beat anybody in the country... and I do mean anybody... and controlled its own fate to win the Big 12 outright with only four games remaining.

It also stubbed its ******* toe against bad teams like Maryland, South Carolina, Texas Tech (when they were atrocious), and a dragon-themed team from down south.

I do not know if we have ever had a better assemblage of talent on a basketball team in Ames than the top eight from that team I just listed out a moment ago. Heck, Clayton Custer was a bench-warmer on that team, and he just led a team to the Final Four. That team also had Daniel Edozie, who would have played on many good ISU teams in the past, and Deonte Burton on a redshirt. Hating recruiting or not, Fred assembled a heck of a roster.

He just seemed not to be able to wield it with certainty.

The top seven on this team is pushing towards that realm, though, and that is not counting the fact Solomon Young is just as good but injured for this season.

I think Marial and Nick could play themselves into the NBA conversation like some of the guys above did or, at least, have successful careers in Europe like Matt. People are already listing Lindell, Talen, and Tyrese as future first-round NBA draft picks.

This team made Mississippi, Texas Tech, and Kansas State squeal like a piggy on their home courts, and gave Kansas quite the bloody nose early on in Hilton.

Then they turn around and lose to a junk Arizona team and give up gimme games against good but not exactly scary teams at home like TCU and Baylor.

Not predicting this team goes out like the 2014-2015 team did, but I do agree with you the "feel" is similar. We have the talent to beat anybody, and when the focus is there, watch out. When it is not, however, you kind of have to be scared of anybody.

 

[MartinCy]

Back up to 14 in the NET today.

Looks like we benefited from Nevada, Louisville, and LSU losing. The 4th team we jumped was Kansas... That can probably be mostly attributed to our own numbers improving without us playing by way of San Diego State picking up a massive win over Nevada.

It also didn't hurt our NCAA tourney seeding to have Villanova take a loss. They're projected as a 5 seed right now. Overall about as good of night as you can ask for without playing a game.

 

[CliveClone17]

This team reminds me of the 2014-2015 team -- the Bryce Dejean-Jones experience.

Top-to-bottom, that team was absolutely loaded with talent...

Morris
Mitrou-Long
Thomas
Dejean-Jones
Nader
Hogue
Niang
McKay

There are five guys up there who eventually had NBA contracts. I feel like every one of those guys had an all-conference honor at some point in their careers. Two of them were deserving of all-American/CPOTY honors, even if they picked bad years going up against Buddy Hield and Frank Mason, both NPOTYs, in the race, and deserve their name in the rafters.

That team could beat anybody in the country... and I do mean anybody... and controlled its own fate to win the Big 12 outright with only four games remaining.

It also stubbed its ******* toe against bad teams like Maryland, South Carolina, Texas Tech (when they were atrocious), and a dragon-themed team from down south.

I do not know if we have ever had a better assemblage of talent on a basketball team in Ames than the top eight from that team I just listed out a moment ago. Heck, Clayton Custer was a bench-warmer on that team, and he just led a team to the Final Four. That team also had Daniel Edozie, who would have played on many good ISU teams in the past, and Deonte Burton on a redshirt. Hating recruiting or not, Fred assembled a heck of a roster.

He just seemed not to be able to wield it with certainty.

The top seven on this team is pushing towards that realm, though, and that is not counting the fact Solomon Young is just as good but injured for this season.

I think Marial and Nick could play themselves into the NBA conversation like some of the guys above did or, at least, have successful careers in Europe like Matt. People are already listing Lindell, Talen, and Tyrese as future first-round NBA draft picks.

This team made Mississippi, Texas Tech, and Kansas State squeal like a piggy on their home courts, and gave Kansas quite the bloody nose early on in Hilton.

Then they turn around and lose to a junk Arizona team and give up gimme games against good but not exactly scary teams at home like TCU and Baylor.

Not predicting this team goes out like the 2014-2015 team did, but I do agree with you the "feel" is similar. We have the talent to beat anybody, and when the focus is there, watch out. When it is not, however, you kind of have to be scared of anybody.

If I remember right, that team also finished the regular season and conference tournament having to make double-digit second-half comebacks in nearly every game. They were down 17 to Kansas in the Big 12 Championship game. In hindsight, the wheels were pretty wobbly to finish out that season - and finished with the abomination that will not be mentioned.

 

[VeloClone]

If I remember right, that team also finished the regular season and conference tournament having to make double-digit second-half comebacks in nearly every game. They were down 17 to Kansas in the Big 12 Championship game. In hindsight, the wheels were pretty wobbly to finish out that season - and finished with the abomination that will not be mentioned.

Was that the tournament that started out for ISU by beating Texas while never having led the game at any time there was time on the clock?