2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread

[AuH2O]

There were good stretches of offense where it was initiated with the two Joneses running the high post action and 2/3 of KG, MM or Tamin starting on the wing.
On one hand you want your best players to be playing well. But the flip side of that is ISU is getting Q1 wins when they don’t play well and other guys step up. The room for error this year is so much greater because of depth.

King has become a difference-maker offensively. Curt Jones is incredibly consistent and a calming influence. Milan is passing up and missing 3s but is getting into the lane and getting those “gotta have one” buckets.

Keshon and Tamin need to keep making plays off of TOs and in transition. Clean up the TOs a bit and this team is going to be in great shape.

 

[Rogue52]

Said in game thread but this offensive regression needs to get corrected.

We were 39th in AdjO (I wanna say before WVU game) on KenPom and now we sit all the way back at 64th.

I don’t disagree that it needs to improve - especially if we want to be a Final Four team - but the adjusted offensive got inflated following the Houston game. We are closer to where we have been all season now.

 

[madguy30]

But we can’t play in to other teams game plans just to make our AdjO look better. It’s obvious teams are trying to clamp down on Keshon and Tamin, so you either drive in to the wall or you find a different way to win. It’s not surprising that we’ve seen two breakout games from guys that don’t normally produce (Watson & King). We’re taking advantage of what the other teams are giving us.

I’m a huge metrics believer, but at some point strategy has to come in to play.

Metrics are fine but at some point they've further removed fans from the realities of how a game goes.

Opponents work to improve their areas that aren't great, players are tired and dinged up etc.

I'm afraid if ISU gets bounced early some folks are going to go scorched earth on the team and it won't be deserved at all.

 

[MJ271]

The offense has had a rough stretch--it's not just that they've been facing good defenses. Barttorvik has the single-game adjusted offense (adjusted for opponents' defensive quality) at 101.4, 95.9, and 103.8 in the last 3 games. Those are 3 of the 4 worst offensive games in Big 12 play (OSU was the other one). That came after a stretch where 8 of 9 games had an ISU adjusted offense rating above 110, and 5 of those were above 120.

Interestingly, OU was the only one of those three where the effective field goal percentage was significantly lower than most of Big 12 play. The real issues dragging down offensive efficiency yesterday were turnovers and a lack of offensive rebounds.

Oddly, though, I'm still not really that concerned about the offense. They've got some things to fix, but all of the things (except free throws) are things they've done well at other points during the season (like turning the ball over less). I don't think it's like last year where it was clear that opponents had "solved" the Iowa State offense. To me, the biggest questions are just about health and how much Big 12 play has worn on them.

 

[Sigmapolis]

 

[cycloneworld]

Metrics are fine but at some point they've further removed fans from the realities of how a game goes.

Opponents work to improve their areas that aren't great, players are tired and dinged up etc.

I'm afraid if ISU gets bounced early some folks are going to go scorched earth on the team and it won't be deserved at all.

Agree. But ultimately, teams are judged on their performance in March. Which is why I REALLY want this team to share a conference title. Because then, even with an early NCAA tournament exit, the season would be a massive success. Would no doubt be a disappointing finish though.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Torvik game-by-game adjusted offensive rating...

Green bubbles = individual games (wins)
Red bubbles = individual games (losses)
Flat line at 105 = Division 1 average
Line sloping down = linear fit
Dark red line = moving average
Dashed black line = five-game moving average

The last three games have definitely been a step down from where they had things through the road game at Houston -- even if you adjust for the quality of defenses they've been facing night to night.

Need to get that back up to 110+ if you don't want to look like last year's team.

 

[AirWalke]

Yeah, defense has been their saving grace since Houston, but it's become apparent that something about the offense has downgraded quite a bit.

 

[RagingCloner]

I want to watch this team win as many games as possible, however, with the quick turnaround from conference tourney to ncaa tourney, I’d be okay if they had an early exit. I think a lot of the offensive struggles could be rectified with some extra rest for a few key guys

 

[cyatheart]

Metrics are fine but at some point they've further removed fans from the realities of how a game goes.

Opponents work to improve their areas that aren't great, players are tired and dinged up etc.

I'm afraid if ISU gets bounced early some folks are going to go scorched earth on the team and it won't be deserved at all.

If we get bounced early it’s likely because of our ineffectiveness in the half court, which has been a weakness since TJ got here. It is what it is, it’s hard to do everything well. To get to a final four however, I do think we will eventually have to get better offensively in the half court. I don’t think we are there yet.

 

[Letterkenny]

Agree. But ultimately, teams are judged on their performance in March. Which is why I REALLY want this team to share a conference title. Because then, even with an early NCAA tournament exit, the season would be a massive success. Would no doubt be a disappointing finish though.

Not by me. It's too much of a crap shoot. A top 4 seed should expect to win their first game. After that, you're playing a really good team every round and anything can, and does happen.

 

[rosshm16]

The emphasis placed on the tourney for gauging a season's success I think is often misplaced. A six-round single-elimination tourney is a terrible way to determine who are the best teams (compared to e.g. the two-month slog of the NBA Playoffs). But that's also what makes it such a fun tourney.

 

[MeanDean]

View attachment 124861

View attachment 124862

This may have been answered previously. If we're the #9 team how does it not project us as a 3 seed instead of a 2 seed?

 

[Sigmapolis]

This may have been answered previously. If we're the #9 team how does it not project us as a 3 seed instead of a 2 seed?

Your metrics are only part of your resume.

 

[alarson]

This may have been answered previously. If we're the #9 team how does it not project us as a 3 seed instead of a 2 seed?

The metric thinks we're the 9th best team in the country, but with a 5th-8th resume that'd get us a 2 seed

 

[interrobang]

Didn't see this posted yet, but took a pretty big jump on Adjust D in Kenpom. After being behind Rutgers and Tenn for most of the season, there is bit of a gap back to 3rd now.

 

[ChickenNuggetMan]

Torvik game-by-game adjusted offensive rating...

Green bubbles = individual games (wins)
Red bubbles = individual games (losses)
Flat line at 105 = Division 1 average
Line sloping down = linear fit
Dark red line = moving average
Dashed black line = five-game moving average

The last three games have definitely been a step down from where they had things through the road game at Houston -- even if you adjust for the quality of defenses they've been facing night to night.

Need to get that back up to 110+ if you don't want to look like last year's team.

View attachment 124863

Thank you, I knew it was happening but good to see it quantified

 

[Sigmapolis]

Didn't see this posted yet, but took a pretty big jump on Adjust D in Kenpom. After being behind Rutgers and Tenn for most of the season, there is bit of a gap back to 3rd now.

View attachment 124871

At the same time the offense has hit a soft patch the defense has stepped it up...

 

[Cyclonepride]

There were good stretches of offense where it was initiated with the two Joneses running the high post action and 2/3 of KG, MM or Tamin starting on the wing.
On one hand you want your best players to be playing well. But the flip side of that is ISU is getting Q1 wins when they don’t play well and other guys step up. The room for error this year is so much greater because of depth.

King has become a difference-maker offensively. Curt Jones is incredibly consistent and a calming influence. Milan is passing up and missing 3s but is getting into the lane and getting those “gotta have one” buckets.

Keshon and Tamin need to keep making plays off of TOs and in transition. Clean up the TOs a bit and this team is going to be in great shape.

I think doing that will pay off for Milan as defenders will have to respect his ability to dribble past them into the paint, where he's tough to stop too. Should open up more deep opportunities.

 

[interrobang]

Finally getting enough brackets out there to overtake Kansas for the #2 seed.