I vaguely recall hearing something about this last year, like a 20-point win counts equally as a 40-pointer (or whatever, something similar, I don't know the details). Discourages teams from, for example, leaving your leading scorer in the game with four minutes to go still jacking up threes with a 40-point lead against Minnesota.
2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
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It's very possible that's the case, and I think it's reasonable to include that kind of cap or adjustment for "garbage time." It's annoying that the NCAA hasn't released enough information about the NET to know either way.
But if that's true, then pretty much any complaints about Big 12 schedules are even more ridiculous. The purported way that a team can "manipulate" the NET is to run up scores against bad teams to help efficiency numbers by winning by more than the adjusted efficiency numbers would expect. But if those big blowouts get thrown out, then there's not actually any benefit to playing a super-weak schedule.
I think the reason they haven't disclosed the specific algorithm or factors involved is because they don't want teams gaming it.
Goodhart's law - Wikipedia
I was going to disagree, but just hitting X seemed rude. But if the team matches the second best defensive effort of the season in each of the next 3 games (ie what they did v OU), we might not lose any of them, let alone all three.
I do understand why people are a little freaked out by the game last night, but would everyone feel better if it had been 80-67? I sort of think they would. But in fact, 58-45 is better.
Definitely agree. Every team out there is going to have a bad game or a stretch of bad games. We just had a couple (possibly fueled by a little letdown from the game at Houston, who knows), but won both of them. That's all you can ask.
One of my dad's favorite saying is "If you can win on your bad days, you'll win on your good ones". He attributes it to Lombardi, but I'm not sure if that's correct. Anyway, this team has done a great job of winning on their bad days.
Yeah, and I get that to some extent. But I'd argue that if they were more transparent about methodology, it would be more blatant which teams are gaming it and how they are doing so, and we could make real adjustments based on those facts. Instead, we're just doing a bunch of guessing about why NET likes one team more than another and how a team's scheduling contributes to it.I think the reason they haven't disclosed the specific algorithm or factors involved is because they don't want teams gaming it.
Goodhart's law - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
I'm not banging on Tre but the the things that he has on Watson is back to basket skills and the mid range game (because I don't think I've ever seen Watson take one). I feel Watson is an elite and a more versatile defender. He rebounds outside his area and is better off the bounce. I don't think we lose much if Watson plays 15 to 20 mins a game from the 4.
I'm not sure what basis you could have for that. How many plays has Watson made off the bounce?
Got it - makes total sense. Hard to argue there's anybody more athletic than Watson. Somebody had a good comment in the game thread that Watson is like some of those Baylor guys back in the Fred days. Just guys flying out of nowhere to get boards and tapouts.
Thought it was worth sharing that BartTorvik rated our performance today as a 94. Meaning we would beat 94% of teams with our performance today.
Gives some insight into just how tough that was. It felt like we played awful.
Gives some insight into just how tough that was. It felt like we played awful.
I wish you were right but King just seems so much better on the offensive end. If there is not that much drop off here you’d think Watson gets way more of King’s minutes.
Said in game thread but this offensive regression needs to get corrected.
We were 39th in AdjO (I wanna say before WVU game) on KenPom and now we sit all the way back at 64th.
We were 39th in AdjO (I wanna say before WVU game) on KenPom and now we sit all the way back at 64th.
How much offensive regression is there or is it due to the fact that we have played several excellent defensive teams?
Kansas scored 60 at UCF. BYU scored 63 at UCF. West Virginia scored 59. Houston scored 57. Texas Tech scored 61.
We certainly have things like silly turnovers to clean up but the defensive quality of teams we are playing matters a lot too.
You could say that for UCF, on the road especially. The other 2 games were just a struggle. Granted, we had shots against OU and just didn’t make them.
AdjD for the last 3 opponents:
WVU- 134
Oklahoma- 29
UCF- 10
Had shots yesterday too and couldn't hit.
The OU win was a big deal considering the match up problems out front.
BYU would be a nice game to crank things up a bit in another revenge type of game.
But we can’t play in to other teams game plans just to make our AdjO look better. It’s obvious teams are trying to clamp down on Keshon and Tamin, so you either drive in to the wall or you find a different way to win. It’s not surprising that we’ve seen two breakout games from guys that don’t normally produce (Watson & King). We’re taking advantage of what the other teams are giving us.
I’m a huge metrics believer, but at some point strategy has to come in to play.
We shot 46% from the field yesterday. That’s pretty efficient against a top 10 defense. We missed 5 FTs late along with having 17 turnovers so I don’t think we were as far off offensively as people think (Gilbert had 9 turnovers himself).
But you are right that we need to clean things up offensively. I just don’t think it’s a “sky is falling” moment like some fans (not you) are saying.
For us to go far in March, Lipsey and Gilbert have to be better offensively. And if they are, our offense will be just fine.
We adjusted in the second half and their ball reversal to the high post followed by a back door cut was eliminated. We almost completely stopped doubling out of the high screens, packed the inside more, and dared them to beat us from the outside which they failed to do
