I agree with all of this. I also just think the perception that this is some World-beater class is not reality. A good class? Sure. A class that will make some contributions? Sure. A class that can make up for the serious deficiencies we have on this roster? Not so sure.
Agreed - this is a good class, not a great one. I'm excited to see these guys play, but my expectations are not high for this season. I think Foster will need lots of time to be a complete, high impact player. I expect Blackwell to play lots of minutes and be an impact guy, and I think Dubar will get plenty of minutes and be what you typically see out of a decent P6 recruit.
We need some serious shooting help. I'm not going to say it's an automatic that the team is going to be really bad, but every "IF" has to pretty much happen.
-I do believe Bolton the type of guy that you can absolutely build a great offense around. He's basically right handed only, and we had terrible shooting around him so people could just leave guys to help and not worry about having to close out, and he still got into the lane at will. Now, can he develop his game to A) be decent getting to the lane to his left and B) making better decisions when to dish vs. try to finish. While these are certainly likely to get better, he needs to make a big jump.
- Jackson HAS to be a consistent, high percentage shooter from 3. He can't disappear offensively for entire games, and he can't have multi-game shooting slumps. He's got to be great in a 3/D role, and it has to happen from game 1.
- Conditt has to make a big jump. His big games last year have to be the baseline
- Young has to be more consistent
- Foster has to be ready to play solid minutes
- One of these bigs is going to have to be able to play alongside another big and be effective on both ends of the court. When Conditt and Young were good, they typically were the bench guy playing with the small lineup. Both struggled playing alongside another big.
- Out of Johnson, Blackwell, Dubar and Walker we need at least one Big 12 quality starter and two Big 12 quality rotation guys. I'm banking on Johnson and Blackwell being ready to start/play starter type minutes.
So lots of big ifs there. Usually you might go into the season and outline five or six things like this and say, well, if two or three of these things happen, we'll be in good shape. Unfortunately, short of a surprise transfer (at least going by how things look now) we need returners to all make pretty significant jumps and the newcomers to exceed expectation. Not impossible, but highly unlikely all those happen.