I wouldn't differentiate them that much, I still think Houston is really good too. I just don't think they are as good as us, but it's close. I don't think computer metrics are fool proof is what I'm getting at. I think they can undervalue actual winning and losing the game. By the end of the season it usually works itself out though.
2024-2025 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
- Start date
We probably should have lost to TT, and should have beaten Auburn.
Agreed. It would be the same if someone took Kenpom or Torvik and put it into categories and said a team has X wins and Y losses in each of those categories.
It’s the output and not the input, essentially.
Boo.
Eh.
2-1 in the Tech/KU/WVU sequence was pretty good.
Eh.
2-1 in the Tech/KU/WVU sequence was pretty good.
Eh, if we hit that record think there’s still a 50-50 shot at a 1 seed, depending on how other top teams shake out.
Knocked us down to the #2 line from the looks of it so far...
I still doubt three #1 seeds from the SEC.
Iowa St. and Houston are fighting for a Big 12 title and might be for a #1 seed yet.
Agreed.
It's the hit to the offensive efficiency that's concerning the most, in the absence of Milan.
In terms of raw offensive efficiency - we were 110+ in the first 15 games with Milan, and have now put up a 103 and 85 without him. The KU game was fine, adjusted for opponent it was right where we have been - but games like yesterday are more likely without Milan's range.
Luckily the next 9 games are the "easy" part of our schedule, with just two Quad 1A games (@ Arizona and @ Kansas) and 2 Quad 1B games (@ ASU and @ UCF).
It would be ideal if Milan could be back for the Houston game on 2/22 - that should be just about right for his injury timeline (~5 weeks)
Were clearly not as good without Milan. Maintaining the offensive rating especially, was going to be impossible. It looks like our defensive rating has gone up the two games without him. We'll see if that continues. Just need to hold on and be "good enough" until he's back. I think we win yesterday with Milan. It's likely we lose at least one more game because of his absence. Probably the difference between getting a 1 seed and a 2. It sucks, but not the end of the world.
Bracketmatrix still has us as a #1 seed, although idk how much the individual brackets update this early in season.
Looking at future games:
3 really tough - at UH, at KU, at AZ
6 easy games - home vs CU, TCU, UCF, BYU, at OkSt
5 'should win but...' games - home vs Cincy and AZ, at KSU, at AzSt, at UCF
That sounds like 14-6 worst case, 16-4 best case to me.
Mostly I worry about dropping a dumb one at UCF or at AzSt.
Looking at future games:
3 really tough - at UH, at KU, at AZ
6 easy games - home vs CU, TCU, UCF, BYU, at OkSt
5 'should win but...' games - home vs Cincy and AZ, at KSU, at AzSt, at UCF
That sounds like 14-6 worst case, 16-4 best case to me.
Mostly I worry about dropping a dumb one at UCF or at AzSt.
There is no warm blooded person who looking at their resumes would rank ISU behind Houston... Zero point zero percent chance as of today, January 20, 2025
Torvik isn’t ranking right now.
It’s ranking given its projections of how the rest of the season plays out.
I know the 1 seed thing is exciting but it's January and in 8ish weeks if ISU is 'down' to a 2 seed that means things have still gone very well so from the couch (sometimes a chair or watching in bed) sign me up.
@ WVU and Auburn neutral site are not bad losses. And the committee takes injuries into account.
I think ISU is still solidly a 1 seed as long as ISU wins either the big 12 regular season title or the bog 12 tourney.
I think ISU is still solidly a 1 seed as long as ISU wins either the big 12 regular season title or the bog 12 tourney.
Agree. Most of the major college basketball writers I follow have ISU between 3 and 5 this morning. Barely a blip from the people who really know basketball.
For anyone who looks at this and says not to trust it, just a reminder that this is Torvik's bracket projection at the end of the season based on his rankings and how they project future games will play out. There is an option on his site to see a bracket projection "if the season ended today". Here's what that one looks like as of today.
Parrish only dropped us to #3 on his top 25
Great resource!
Which is where the Torvik projections come in, @cyfan92.
Torvik expects Iowa St. to continue on more or less as we have and land somewhere in the high #2 or low #1 range depend on exactly how a few of the upcoming swing games go.
Torvik expects Houston to go on an absolute tear and terrorize the rest of the Big 12 from here on out. The Cougars rack up Q-1A wins, beat Iowa St. at home, and land at a #1 seed.
Iowa St. has terrific efficiency metrics (#6 on Torvik) but Houston is off the charts. Especially its D...
We'll see how it plays out with the real games instead of the pretend computer ones.
The matrix had us as the 3rd #1 seed as of Saturday. I'm assuming that was before our loss. At worst I think we'll be the top 2 seed when its updated, but more likely the last 1 seed.
One slight nit to pick: committee seems to give absolute 0 s**** about conference tournament performance.
Here's my 'expert' (LOL) projection of ISU seed, based on total number of regular season losses:
4 or less losses: Lock for a 1 seed
5 losses: 3:1 odds we get a 1 seed
6 losses: under 50% odds we get a 1 seed (heavily depends on how many losses other potential 1 seeds rack up; for now I assume Duke and Auburn will lose very few, and a 1 seed to either Houston or Iowa State seems likely)
7 losses: basically no chance of a 1 seed, but basically a lock for a 2 seed
8 losses: probably a 3 seed
9 losses or more: who knows - hopefully we don't need to worry about this
