Baylor is an interesting team. They've definitely been on a roll since losing to UConn, winning their last 4 by at least 25, including smoking Utah. But they were all at home and none against good teams. They haven't played well away from Waco - going 2-3 with close wins over Arkansas (5 pts) and a double OT win over St Johns.
They are very undersized - they start 6'7" Norchad Omier and 6'10" Josh Ojianwuna, but they don't have any other forward that they play regular minutes. The other 6 in the rotation are guards.
Omier is an amazing - and astoundingly consistent - player that most people don't know about. He's in his 5th season and has averaged a double-double in all 5 seasons! He plays much bigger than 6'7" and is especially good on the offensive glass. Jefferson, Jackson and Chatfield will have to rebound well. He plays the 5 about half the time as Ojianwuna averages just under 23 minutes a game. His one weakness is foul trouble - He was limited in both the UConn and Tenn losses due to foul trouble and has ended the game with at least 4 fouls in half their games. He made some threes with Miami last year - but is just 4-17 this season.
This is definitely a 'pound it with the Presidents' game. It's also a game where we may see Jefferson at the 5 more, especially if it's close late (like Marquette)
The guard court is deep with super freshmen Wright and Edgecomb both averaging around 13 a game - and then transfer seniors Nunn (VCU), Roach (Duke) and Celestine (Cal).
Former ISU commit Nunn is having his best season, shooting almost 50% on 3s on almost 6 attempts a game - but only shooting 33% from inside the arc.
Wright comes off the bench - but has probably been their second best player after Omier - he's also averaging over 5 assists a game and shooting 46% from deep.
Edgecomb is 6'6" and super athletic and plays the '4' when they go small and is averaging over 5 rebounds a game.
As usual with Scott Drew, they play pretty slowly. They've excelled in similar ways to our team the last two years in some ways - they score off steals at a pretty high rate and don't give up hardly any points off of steals (this will be key). They also have shot >70% on shots around the rim (#1 in the country) and, like our teams of the past 2 years, they are #1 in limiting the other team from taking shots at the rim.
I'm guessing they do this by collapsing the zone into the post on any paint touches - and thus they are giving up a TON of threes, especially in their losses, giving up over 36% on three-pointers on the season.
The keys to the game are:
Offense:
1) Getting it into the paint to Jefferson and Jackson, being creative about it to get shots around or before the double, and making the threes off of kickouts
2) Getting steals and quick points
3) Getting Keshon and Tamin to the rim - especially to get fouls
Defense:
1) Keep Omier off the glass
2) Limit dribble drives
3) Don't leave Wright or Nunn
I think we win - it'll be a close, hard fought game unless Omier is in foul trouble - then we'll go on a run and win easily