If I were to guess, the four mountain schools will go to the Big 12 since I don't see a compelling reason why they would stay.
This will force Oregon and Washington to join the Big 12 (unless they can work out a deal for extreme unequal revenue sharing / reduced payouts in the Pac 12 with escape clauses, so they can leave whenever they want).
Stanford may go independent and the rest will stay in the Pac and the conference will backfill with Mountain West schools.
Notre Dame may go to the B1G and pull in Stanford in a few years. After that, maybe we have a threat of Oregon and Washington trying to get an invite once the new Big 12 GOR expires.