Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[WhoISthis]

Math is not meaningless and teams don’t want to struggle anywhere. Most will expect to win, but some will lose. And when they do, they will have backlash from fans and fire coaches.

You have that regardless of conference setup. And in UT's case, it is a major reason why they left for a P2. Better to lose in the P2 than outside of it.

I hate when my NFL team struggles. The answer is to win more, not leave the NFL.

Again, what is the question? Do we think anyone would give up a P2 spot for more win certainty elsewhere? If not, why does the matter?

 

[2speedy1]

Im totally confused where this conversation went.

Im not sure what we are debating here anymore.

113 pages in 2 days maybe I missed something.

 

[WhoISthis]

What if Alabama started saying they were going to start earning $200M per year, while only giving Tennessee $50M.

While looking at an outside conference where everyone makes the same say $70M....What happens then?

Rather unlikely. I don't know if the top-48 is the steady state, but it is probably close to that. And once that occurs, it is like the pros in which conference revenue is split evenly because it is best for the macros.

Bama has shared with Miss St forever. Same in the BIG. I don't see socialism being a big problem when the top tier P2 separates. No one in the NFL is threatening to leave because small markets get the same share as big money makers.

Once it is a P2 setup, it is the top country club. Where is a UT going to go? There is no other conference making more to leverage like UT has done. It is a totally different situation than schools leaving one conference for another.

 

[Cydkar]

Im totally confused where this conversation went.

Im not sure what we are debating here anymore.

113 pages in 2 days maybe I missed something.

Because one guy is obsessed with this Tennessee thing.

 

[Stormin]

So you agree, that schools rather lose in the top conference or tier than move down for more more certainty on wins? If so, why are you assuming it is not known that not everyone can be the top dog?


Your Tennessee example is particularly poor. You think they thought they would never have down years? Well that was going to be a surprise for them regardless of conference setups.

Tennessee fell off over a decade ago. It has nothing to do with realignment, and everything to do with coaching changes.

Everyone knows the math, everyone agrees that math is meaningless when it is better to struggle in the P2 than be outside the P2. Those are the only two options.

So again, what exactly are we asking Tennessee?

No one said anything about Tennessee leaving the SEC. You make up nonsense.

 

[HoopsTournament]

You have that regardless of conference setup. And in UT's case, it is a major reason why they left for a P2. Better to lose in the P2 than outside of it.

I hate when my NFL team struggles. The answer is to win more, not leave the NFL.

Again, what is the question? Do we think anyone would give up a P2 spot for more win certainty elsewhere? If not, why does the matter?

57% of CFB fans are casual fans. If P2 breaks off, they will lose most of the casual fans. And when they lose viewers, the money eventually goes down. It is a myopic view. You need the other teams to keep the viewers for the P2.

In addition, the bottom teams in the new league also lose the casual fans. They won’t spend their time watching losing teams.

I am not saying that any team is giving up a P2 spot. I am saying that P2 breaking off from the rest and being exclusive would reduce the overall money available.

If you don’t think that would happen, then you are very naïve.

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

You are confused as to how NIL (cash) is much more fungible than history and location? NIL is much more opportunistic and open market than college football has ever been. It is not just the draft as to why the NFL has more parity than college football. The NFL pays players to attract talent.

And we'll ignore the naivety of "schools can't pay NIL" even though there are many ways to funnel a $50+ million advantage in annual conference revenue to NIL. If nothing else ADs can just as donors to instead fund NIL because the AD just got a P2 paycheck.

If schools start funneling their TV money into NIL, then the players can claim they are employed by the university, and that is the last thing any university wants.

I agree the second part is what is going to happen, the AD starts telling his boasters to give their donation to the NIL entity, but what are the tax benefits if they do? Businesses can now write off that donation to the university, I really doubt the IRS is going to allow them to do the same for the school collective.

 

[Cyforce]

57% of CFB fans are casual fans. If P2 breaks off, they will lose most of the casual fans. And when they lose viewers, the money eventually goes down. It is a myopic view. You need the other teams to keep the viewers for the P2.

In addition, the bottom teams in the new league also lose the casual fans. They won’t spend their time watching losing teams.

I am not saying that any team is giving up a P2 spot. I am saying that P2 breaking off from the rest and being exclusive would reduce the overall money available.

If you don’t think that would happen, then you are very naïve.

Let's not make this P2 a thing, OK?

 

[WhoISthis]

If schools start funneling their TV money into NIL, then the players can claim they are employed by the university, and that is the last thing any university wants.

I agree the second part is what is going to happen, the AD starts telling him boasters to give their donation to the NIL entity, but what are the tax benefits if they do? Businesses can now write off that donation to the university, I really doubt the IRS is going to allow them to do the same for the school collective.

Good luck with that. And employment is likely coming regardless, and is needed. NIL is a product of shoehorning big business into amateurism

The second part is an example of funneling, which is not always nefarious.

 

[CyJack13]

57% of CFB fans are casual fans. If P2 breaks off, they will lose most of the casual fans. And when they lose viewers, the money eventually goes down. It is a myopic view. You need the other teams to keep the viewers for the P2.

In addition, the bottom teams in the new league also lose the casual fans. They won’t spend their time watching losing teams.

I am not saying that any team is giving up a P2 spot. I am saying that P2 breaking off from the rest and being exclusive would reduce the overall money available.

If you don’t think that would happen, then you are very naïve.

Who do you think casual fans are going to watch? They’re only going to watch the P2. That’s where all the big name programs are

 

[CascadeClone]

And how many NFL coaches get fired every other year for going sub .500. You are leading a winner or you are the team that is playing round robin with coaches. Some of these teams are changes coaches every couple years.

Its not ok to be the loser in the NFL either. Saying it is, is not true.

And thats what it will look like in the superleague too. It wont be ok to be a loser, but there will be losers. The Lions and Jets could be Tennessee and Penn St.

 

[HoopsTournament]

Who do you think casual fans are going to watch? They’re only going to watch the P2. That’s where all the big name programs are

No. They will only watch their team and maybe not even that. They will do something else with their Saturday.

 

[jdoggivjc]

Well no ****, who said UT would leave the SEC?

Read the thread and you'll understand.

I should probably reiterate what I said on the matter yesterday.

IF the SEC/Big 10 implement an unequal revenue sharing model to the extent that the schools that are "paid to lose" are paid at a level such that they are paid comparably to those in the Big 12, or perhaps are even being paid less, simply because those at the top of those conferences got that greedy and didn't want to share their money - that's when you may see teams leave the superconference.

The extent of the greed of those at the top will determine if and when the house of cards collapses upon itself.

 

[CascadeClone]

Who do you think casual fans are going to watch? They’re only going to watch the P2. That’s where all the big name programs are

Agree, a lot of just general sports fans will watch whatever espn and fox have on. But i do think there will be less casual fans overall.

 

[WhoISthis]

57% of CFB fans are casual fans. If P2 breaks off, they will lose most of the casual fans. And when they lose viewers, the money eventually goes down. It is a myopic view. You need the other teams to keep the viewers for the P2.

In addition, the bottom teams in the new league also lose the casual fans. They won’t spend their time watching losing teams.

I am not saying that any team is giving up a P2 spot. I am saying that P2 breaking off from the rest and being exclusive would reduce the overall money available.

If you don’t think that would happen, then you are very naïve.

The P2 will break off when it is time to break off. It won't happen immediately. They'll let the market decide when it is time to break away. It could happen, as all these causal fans you mention will gravitate to the P2, and the P2 could then break away and make more on a per team basis.

Causal fan interest will increase due to better product identification and playoff organization of the north-south P2 setup and the sport becoming more national. It is more compelling to the casual fan than the current setup. CFP has historically been very regional, cannibalized itself, and had the worst parity of any major sport. This will improve that.


You keep saying math matters, claiming fans will be unhappy with losses. Unless they prefer being outside the P2 in order to have more win certainty, no, it doesn't matter in the context of realignment.

 

[WhoISthis]

No. They will only watch their team and maybe not even that. They will do something else with their Saturday.

Oh, you mean causal fans of leftovers. If those were significant numbers in terms of watching these schools, those schools would be included. This is what realignment is all about.

The conversion rate on those fans to the P2 will be high.

Anyone "protesting" by not watching the top level of sport because ISU is not the the P2 is hardly a casual fan. Most causal ISU fans don't know enough about the politics of CFB to do that.

You have to admit the notion that causal ISU football fans will stop watching college football because ISU has no chance of meeting OU in the playoffs is funny

 

[Fishhead]

Surprising how many people pick ISU in replying to that.

Regionality. IMO, in which a lot of fans want.

 

[isucy86]

Who do you think casual fans are going to watch? They’re only going to watch the P2. That’s where all the big name programs are

They won't watch college football. Or with hardcore fans, instead of watching 11 hours on Saturday, they'll watch 3.

The beauty of college football is I love my Cyclone sports. Hence, I watch other Big12 teams so I know how the Cyclones stack up. Since the Big12 is part of the national championship race, I watch games in the Big10, SEC, ACC and Pac12.

If ISU and the Big12 is in another "tier", why watch much Big10 or SEC football? I can go on a hike, watch Netflix, read a book and a multitude of other leisure activities.

Baseball was once America's sport, where does it rank today?

 

[HoopsTournament]

They won't watch college football. Or with hardcore fans, instead of watching 11 hours on Saturday, they'll watch 3.

The beauty of college football is I love my Cyclone sports. Hence, I watch other Big12 teams so I know how the Cyclones stack up. Since the Big12 is part of the national championship race, I watch games in the Big10, SEC, ACC and Pac12.

If ISU and the Big12 is in another "tier", why watch much Big10 or SEC football? I can go on a hike, watch Netflix, read a book and a multitude of other leisure activities.

Baseball was once America's sport, where does it rank today?

Exactly.

 

[StLouisClone]

It doesn't take a math genius to know that fewer fans will watch the top 48 teams compete against each other than the fans watching the current top 69. What's going to happen when OU's game against Baylor is replaced with a game against Ole Miss? Well a big percentage of Big 12 fans who would have watched OU - Baylor are going to find something else to do... especially if Baylor's games going forward are on ESPN plus.