Big 12 Expansion (new thread)

[isucy86]

Excerpt from the Athletic which gives credence to the ACC's desire to re-open their TV deal with ESPN and keep the conference intact beyond 2036:

"ACC commissioner Jim Phillips is still waging a seemingly one-man fight to limit CFP expansion to eight teams, which publicly he says is an athlete-welfare issue but privately is an attempt to force Notre Dame’s hand to join his conference in full."

Yesterday an article quoting Bowlsby, after the Commissioners met, mentioned there are decisionmakers supporting 4, 8 or 12 playoff team options.

Last week I saw a quote from Sankey basically saying if he can't convince parties to be to move to 12 teams and no restrictions on teams per conference, he would support continuation of 4 team playoff.

IMO the SEC got out over its skis by adding OU/UT prior to the 12 team playoff being formally approved. The other P5 and G5 conferences have the SEC at a disadvantage because an 8 team playoff with auto-qualifiers screws the SEC.

It seems there are equally significant issues to the number of playoff teams: auto-qualifier structure and revenue split.

It's not being talked about as much, but I can see revenue split being a bigger issue for some P5 schools. The existing deal has 80% of revenue going to P5 and 20% to G5. Plus 4 team playoff conferences received a single $6M payment plus expenses for semi and championship games. It also paid conferences $4M for teams participating in NY6 games.

It's one thing to agree to a split when the Playoff+NY6 media rights deal splits around $500M. It's another thing when they split $2B!! Currently, the G5 conferences split is $90M. Are P5 schools going to be willing to give G5 schools $400M as part of the split?

My guess is the SEC and maybe Big10 will also want Playoff Conferences to get a bigger payout than $6M/school in the future.

Bowlsby was optimistic differences would be settled. But I gotta believe when the # of teams is expanded, we see G5 conferences getting a smaller share.

 

[WhoISthis]

Excerpt from the Athletic which gives credence to the ACC's desire to re-open their TV deal with ESPN and keep the conference intact beyond 2036:

"ACC commissioner Jim Phillips is still waging a seemingly one-man fight to limit CFP expansion to eight teams, which publicly he says is an athlete-welfare issue but privately is an attempt to force Notre Dame’s hand to join his conference in full."

Please, please open up the deal. It likely gets shortened too without material increase enough to keep those that want to bail. It just moves up the date in which the ACC is removed. FSU, Clemson, and Miami fans have all been celebrating this.

 

[WhoISthis]

Yesterday an article quoting Bowlsby, after the Commissioners met, mentioned there are decisionmakers supporting 4, 8 or 12 playoff team options.

Last week I saw a quote from Sankey basically saying if he can't convince parties to be to move to 12 teams and no restrictions on teams per conference, he would support continuation of 4 team playoff.

IMO the SEC got out over its skis by adding OU/UT prior to the 12 team playoff being formally approved. The other P5 and G5 conferences have the SEC at a disadvantage because an 8 team playoff with auto-qualifiers screws the SEC.

Except ND and the G5's are with the SEC. And OUT still in the Big 12 with great access.

The SEC is in complete control here- they are in a win-win. There is no scenario that can get passed in which the SEC does not benefit more than others. Avoiding their preferred outcome at the expense of access for the Alliance is a fools errand.

Stay at 4 that they dominate until 2026, and have superior access with OUT getting the Big 12 path, and open up to more bidders come 2026? Win for SEC, huge loss for ACC and P12. Go to 12 and get more SEC teams in? Also a win.

The leak cost ESPN, not the SEC. The SEC got ESPN to move OUT without giving up anything. They have little rush to move OUT. If anything, the CFP expansion getting obstructed plays right into their long-term plans of adding more elite south brands and separating from the NCAA. They need ESPN to do that, and if ESPN doesn't get exclusive bid rights to CFP, they have a big incentive to finance the SEC,ND,G5 (maybe Big 12) playoffs.

 

[cykadelic2]

Please, please open up the deal. It likely gets shortened too without material increase enough to keep those that want to bail. It just moves up the date in which the ACC is removed. FSU, Clemson, and Miami fans have all been celebrating this.

If ND was added, The GOR would stay in place thru 2036 and perhaps be extended.

 

[WhoISthis]

If ND was added, The GOR would stay in place thru 2036 and perhaps be extended.

If OUT had second thoughts and brought Bama with them the Big 12 would likely sign a GOR to 2036 too

 

[t-noah]

If I were the PAC 12 commissioner I'd be a little worried too.
No fans! Not sure Lincoln Riley can pull 'this rabbit out of the hat'.
Ryan Abraham on Twitter: "About to kickoff. This is the Homecoming crowd for #USC vs. #Arizona https://t.co/5GIj5FXbwx" / Twitter

 

[CascadeClone]

Yesterday an article quoting Bowlsby, after the Commissioners met, mentioned there are decisionmakers supporting 4, 8 or 12 playoff team options.

Last week I saw a quote from Sankey basically saying if he can't convince parties to be to move to 12 teams and no restrictions on teams per conference, he would support continuation of 4 team playoff.

Well of course he does.

In a 12 team gig with no limits, he will get probably 4 or 5 teams most years. That's about 40%+ of the pie.
In a 4 team CFP, he will average 1.5 teams. That's 37.5%.
But in an 8 team, he will probably only get 2. That's 25%.

I guess I can't blame him, he is looking out for his conference.

 

[KnappShack]

Well of course he does.

In a 12 team gig with no limits, he will get probably 4 or 5 teams most years. That's about 40%+ of the pie.
In a 4 team CFP, he will average 1.5 teams. That's 37.5%.
But in an 8 team, he will probably only get 2. That's 25%.

I guess I can't blame him, he is looking out for his conference.

I truly hate the business of college football. So much that I didn't get ESPN for football season. Didn't watch any of the bowls. Barely watched during the season.

The championship game TV ratings were down from pre-covid.

I'm sure I'm an outlier on a fan message board, but I'm quickly moving on from college football.

The positive is I did hear a lot less of Kirk Herbstreit the past few months.

 

[JUKEBOX]

I truly hate the business of college football. So much that I didn't get ESPN for football season. Didn't watch any of the bowls. Barely watched during the season.

The championship game TV ratings were down from pre-covid.

I'm sure I'm an outlier on a fan message board, but I'm quickly moving on from college football.

The positive is I did hear a lot less of Kirk Herbstreit the past few months.

you're not the only one

I still watch and go to games (don't watch or pay for espn, so most of the games I see are if I go out somewhere or on network tv), but I agree that the more the sport turns into a semi-professional league and away from college football, the less I care

 

[JUKEBOX]

that's why honestly maybe this realignment stuff could work out okay if there's a split into multiple leagues

one representing more of a semi-professional league, and the other representing traditional college football

just as long as both leagues can remain economically viable (or at least the traditional college football one lol - I would not watch the semi-professional one like I don't watch the nfl)

 

[VeloClone]

Nebraska has been on the decline since 2000, but their team still pulls a lot of money and a lot of fans. Still enough older people out there looking backwards. Have radio stations basically dedicated to big red football year around. It’s a weird thing.

I was shocked to learn when I first moved to Minnesota that I could get the Iowa State v. Nebraska football games on the radio here in the Twin Cities. For years Minnesota fans of Big Red apparently passed the hat and subsidized radio coverage on a Twin Cities station for every Nebraska game.

 

[surly]

Well of course he does.

In a 12 team gig with no limits, he will get probably 4 or 5 teams most years. That's about 40%+ of the pie.
In a 4 team CFP, he will average 1.5 teams. That's 37.5%.
But in an 8 team, he will probably only get 2. That's 25%.

I guess I can't blame him, he is looking out for his conference.

This is the nub of the issue as well stated as possible. Yes, the SEC needs 12 teams to ensure their payoff revenue covers the additional members' shares, OU and Texas.

 

[WhoISthis]

This is the nub of the issue as well stated as possible. Yes, the SEC needs 12 teams to ensure their payoff revenue covers the additional members' shares, OU and Texas.

The TV side will handle that.

They may not move OuT until it goes to 12 though. Getting 3/4 spots with SEC brands would be a pretty good deal for the SEC.

At 4 they’ll just continue to suffocate out the other conferences until 2026 comes and they can do whatever they want.

 

[surly]

If I were the PAC 12 commissioner I'd be a little worried too.
No fans! Not sure Lincoln Riley can pull 'this rabbit out of the hat'.
Ryan Abraham on Twitter: "About to kickoff. This is the Homecoming crowd for #USC vs. #Arizona https://t.co/5GIj5FXbwx" / Twitter
View attachment 94253

I'm just the opposite. I believe Lincoln will be wildly successful at USC for reasons given by others before.

 

[Jkclone15]

@FriendlySpartan what would the B1G think of USC going independent at the end of their current contract? I have a hard time believing the B1G or SEC will poach P12 schools because of the geographic headache, and I doubt the contract the P12 will be able to get will be enough for them. So unless I'm wrong and they do get a big contract, or the other P12 schools are willing to give them a bigger share I think they would take a look at what Notre Dame is doing, and say "Why not us?". Obvi that would hurt the P12 contract, and the B12 would take a hard look at adding the mountain time zone schools.

 

[knowlesjam]

@FriendlySpartan what would the B1G think of USC going independent at the end of their current contract? I have a hard time believing the B1G or SEC will poach P12 schools because of the geographic headache, and I doubt the contract the P12 will be able to get will be enough for them. So unless I'm wrong and they do get a big contract, or the other P12 schools are willing to give them a bigger share I think they would take a look at what Notre Dame is doing, and say "Why not us?". Obvi that would hurt the P12 contract, and the B12 would take a hard look at adding the mountain time zone schools.

But could USC succeed at being an indy? Getting enough decent teams to travel to SoCal every year to garner a strong enough schedule would be tough. Would the remaining PAC teams be willing to play?

 

[Jkclone15]

But could USC succeed at being an indy? Getting enough decent teams to travel to SoCal every year to garner a strong enough schedule would be tough. Would the remaining PAC teams be willing to play?

Great question. I'm assuming they could expand the series with Notre Dame to be a 2 game home-and-home? But yeah idk if the PAC would do a similar scheduling arrangement to what Notre Dame gets with the ACC.

 

[isucy86]

Except ND and the G5's are with the SEC. And OUT still in the Big 12 with great access.

The SEC is in complete control here- they are in a win-win. There is no scenario that can get passed in which the SEC does not benefit more than others. Avoiding their preferred outcome at the expense of access for the Alliance is a fools errand.

Stay at 4 that they dominate until 2026, and have superior access with OUT getting the Big 12 path, and open up to more bidders come 2026? Win for SEC, huge loss for ACC and P12. Go to 12 and get more SEC teams in? Also a win.

The leak cost ESPN, not the SEC. The SEC got ESPN to move OUT without giving up anything. They have little rush to move OUT. If anything, the CFP expansion getting obstructed plays right into their long-term plans of adding more elite south brands and separating from the NCAA. They need ESPN to do that, and if ESPN doesn't get exclusive bid rights to CFP, they have a big incentive to finance the SEC,ND,G5 (maybe Big 12) playoffs.

The SEC only comes out ahead if there is a move to 12.

Sure, the SEC has been the dominate conference, but only 2 of the 8 years we have had a 4 team playoff has the SEC gotten 2 teams in. So over 8 years, they have earned an extra $12M. That isn't going to pay Sankey's salary!

If the move is to 8 teams, I'd bet your house there is still some form of auto-qualifier for the top 5 or 6 highest ranked conference champs. So even at 8 teams, the SEC would probably max out at 3 teams. By adding OU & UT that is 16 SEC games those 2 teams play each year. And even if OU/UT are mediocre SEC teams, that is 8-10 losses for some SEC team.

You act like ESPN is printing money today. They are the dominate sports network, but might already be over-extended. And they have to answer to their corporate bosses at Disney who will invest money in their highest ROI business segments.

I do agree that the SEC has options. That is why I think they might not be done expanding. Adding the top Pac12 media rights value program adds to the SEC brand. I could also see them go after other Big12 programs once they nail down their Pac 12 expansion. Then wait 10 years for ACC schools to become available. A 24-30 team SEC could create their own CFB league, partner with ESPN and have their own 8 or 12 team playoff.

But the Big10 could do the same with the ACC & Pac12 top media value schools.

 

[isucy86]

But could USC succeed at being an indy? Getting enough decent teams to travel to SoCal every year to garner a strong enough schedule would be tough. Would the remaining PAC teams be willing to play?

Notre Dame has made it work by partnering with the ACC for 5 games each year. If USC could keep their game against ND and a few current Pac12 rivals they could put together a 12 game schedule. I am sure they could also target BYU and MWC schools.

 

[t-noah]

I'm just the opposite. I believe Lincoln will be wildly successful at USC for reasons given by others before.

You may be right. And I still won't care about OUt.