Big 12 Expansion (new thread)

[jcyclonee]

While I have only heard about texas being a **** I’m going to laugh when they get the Nebraska treatment of getting slapped down when they step out of line. All texas does is ensure that the SEC has another mediocre team. Either from texas itself or from texas taking another schools point.

We'd all like to see Texas get slapped down. Actually, they've been getting slapped down (athletically) in the Big 12.

However, Texas is a different animal. They have greater fiscal resources than any other college in the country and they are the most popular school in a very fertile recruiting area. Over time, they have more margin for error than anybody else.

 

[VeloClone]

We'd all like to see Texas get slapped down. Actually, they've been getting slapped down (athletically) in the Big 12.

However, Texas is a different animal. They have greater fiscal resources than any other college in the country and they are the most popular school in a very fertile recruiting area. Over time, they have more margin for error than anybody else.

And they have filled up those margins with plenty of error.

 

[JM4CY]

Nebraska was about football but it was a hard sell for university presidents. Considering since they joined they have dropped from being ranked 100 (not that big of an outlier for the rest of the BIG) to 136 they are now an anchor for academic big ten rankings. Next lowest is a tie with sparty and Iowa at 83. That’s a big drop off that matters to university presidents.

To quote varsity blues “in texas football is life” so it’s not surprising they would make the move and OK is also much more SEC then a lot of other schools.

It doesn't matter if it was a hard sell. They moved the sticks once because they thought dollars were more important. They are more than liable to do it again.

 

[jcyclonee]

And they have filled up those margins with plenty of error.

It's really quite amazing how they have maintained such mediocrity or worse (e.g. Kansas - really?) in football.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

It doesn't matter if it was a hard sell. They moved the sticks once because they thought dollars were more important. They are more than liable to do it again.

Sadly I can’t 100% disagree with you but it will still be a hard sell depending on the terms and candidate.

 

[Gonzo]

Nebraska was about football but it was a hard sell for university presidents. Considering since they joined they have dropped from being ranked 100 (not that big of an outlier for the rest of the BIG) to 136 they are now an anchor for academic big ten rankings. Next lowest is a tie with sparty and Iowa at 83. That’s a big drop off that matters to university presidents.

To quote varsity blues “in texas football is life” so it’s not surprising they would make the move and OK is also much more SEC then a lot of other schools.

I don't think university presidents are going to base a decision like that on US News rankings. Everyone in higher ed knows those can be easily manipulated and are just pretty dumb. They can matter to parents, which can affect admission numbers and ultimately revenue, so schools and administrations play along.

Nebraska lost AAU accreditation because of its medical center being part of the Omaha campus instead of Lincoln, and its emphasis on ag research. They'd been a member for >100 years so why this all of a sudden got them booted is anyone's guess.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

I don't think university presidents are going to base a decision like that on US News rankings. Everyone in higher ed knows those can be easily manipulated and are just pretty dumb. They can matter to parents, which can affect admission numbers and ultimately revenue, so schools and administrations play along.

Nebraska lost AAU accreditation because of its medical center being part of the Omaha campus instead of Lincoln, and its emphasis on ag research. They'd been a member for >100 years so why this all of a sudden got them booted is anyone's guess.

Oh I agree that those rankings aren’t the end all be all but they do matter to the Uni presidents. Like if WVU had bamas football program they still wouldn’t get a BIG (or acc) invite do to academics including their ranking.

 

[cykadelic2]

Sadly I can’t 100% disagree with you but it will still be a hard sell depending on the terms and candidate.

There is a tendency for B10 fans to get too caught up in the pure dilution factor with adding the likes of KU and ISU, the only two contiguous AAU candidates not tied to a long term GOR.

Part of the dilution factor is mitigated by ESPN/Fox moving their existing B12 payouts for both schools to the B10. That is assuming both networks remain tied to the B10 but ESPN may get nudged out in a bidding war. Now if ESPN/ABC drops out and is replaced by a new B10 network/streaming partner, that network/streamer likely will be willing to pay extra to add ISU/KU if that is what it takes to get premium inventory of existing B10 schools. And BTN benefits as well, not only with some linear expansion but obviously with BTN streaming sub stimulation from both schools being added and some significant hits to ESPN+ subs as a result.

And adding ISU/KU solves the existing B10 FB scheduling headaches. By going to a 4 team pod scheduling model, every school is guaranteed a home and home with all other 15 teams in a 4 year scheduling cycle while maintaining annual games with top rivals in their pods. Divisions would be eliminated and the two teams with the best W-L records, regardless of pods, face each other in the CCG. That format will drive up the value of the CCG (and home team ticket sales), again mitigating a significant portion of the perceived dilution factor.

And this would also preclude P12 raiding and preservation of the Rose Bowl tie-ins even in an expanded CFP format.

 

[CascadeClone]

But I agree being an independent is probably their 3rd option. Options 1&2 are a group of 4-6 Pac12 schools approaching Big10 or SEC if the upcoming Pac12 media rights negotiations don't bump up their initial year payouts/school to $45M ish.

If the 4 best Pac12 teams went to the B1G or SEC... would the Big12 try to align/merge with the remnants? You're looking at the Arizonas, Utah and Colorado, WSU, OSU. While not top tier, those are all large state schools. (honestly, Arizonas, Utah and Colorado make a lot of sense imho, WSU/OSU less so). I'd have no objection, you'd have to do pods or essentially be 2 leagues with some crossover, but whatever.

Short term, you would have a 16 or 20 team league, which okay whatever. But if the so called superleague happens... you might have a jumpstart on being the driving force behind the "B" league. Suppose you have a 20 team Big12, and then suddenly 20-30 teams get left behind from the B1G, ACC, and SEC. Those teams might be looking for, not so much a landing spot, but someone to lead them. And if the Big12 was already managing such a large group, maybe they would be the naturals to run that. Not advocating this or anything, just rolling out hypotheticals.

 

[Jkclone15]

If the 4 best Pac12 teams went to the B1G or SEC... would the Big12 try to align/merge with the remnants? You're looking at the Arizonas, Utah and Colorado, WSU, OSU. While not top tier, those are all large state schools. (honestly, Arizonas, Utah and Colorado make a lot of sense imho, WSU/OSU less so). I'd have no objection, you'd have to do pods or essentially be 2 leagues with some crossover, but whatever.

Short term, you would have a 16 or 20 team league, which okay whatever. But if the so called superleague happens... you might have a jumpstart on being the driving force behind the "B" league. Suppose you have a 20 team Big12, and then suddenly 20-30 teams get left behind from the B1G, ACC, and SEC. Those teams might be looking for, not so much a landing spot, but someone to lead them. And if the Big12 was already managing such a large group, maybe they would be the naturals to run that. Not advocating this or anything, just rolling out hypotheticals.

I don't think it would even take 4-6 leaving, if USC leaves then the B12 deal would easily dwarf the P12 deal. Wouldn't be surprised if the P12 schools you mentioned start looking at the B12 at that point.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

There is a tendency for B10 fans to get too caught up in the pure dilution factor with adding the likes of KU and ISU, the only two contiguous AAU candidates not tied to a long term GOR.

Part of the dilution factor is mitigated by ESPN/Fox moving their existing B12 payouts for both schools to the B10. That is assuming both networks remain tied to the B10 but ESPN may get nudged out in a bidding war. Now if ESPN/ABC drops out and is replaced by a new B10 network/streaming partner, that network/streamer likely will be willing to pay extra to add ISU/KU if that is what it takes to get premium inventory of existing B10 schools. And BTN benefits as well, not only with some linear expansion but obviously with BTN streaming sub stimulation from both schools being added and some significant hits to ESPN+ subs as a result.

And adding ISU/KU solves the existing B10 FB scheduling headaches. By going to a 4 team pod scheduling model, every school is guaranteed a home and home with all other 15 teams in a 4 year scheduling cycle while maintaining annual games with top rivals in their pods. Divisions would be eliminated and the two teams with the best W-L records, regardless of pods, face each other in the CCG. That format will drive up the value of the CCG (and home team ticket sales), again mitigating a significant portion of the perceived dilution factor.

And this would also preclude P12 raiding and preservation of the Rose Bowl tie-ins even in an expanded CFP format.

So here is the thing. ISU has plenty of value (Kansas has none) to a lot of conferences but they really only have value to the BIG or SEC if they want to expand again right now, which they don't. Using this years ratings ISU was the 27th ranked program in the country for TV ratings with an average of 1.21mil people per game. ISU ranked higher then 4 big ten teams and 5 SEC teams. In the 26 spots ahead, counting OUT in the SEC, there were 10 BIG and 11 SEC teams that got higher average ratings.

Outside of those two conferences ISU has enormous value as there was only one other big12, 1 Pac12, and 2 ACC teams with better rankings. While that could make them a good expansion candidate it isnt the no brainer that OUT was for the SEC and everything I am hearing is that expansion isnt even being considered right now for the BIG. As we get closer to 2030 we will see where everything falls and how strong that handshake alliance is.

 

[IceCyIce]

Well here's the million dollar question....Is Iowa State in the money after this or are we screwed and back to being a cross country school.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

Well here's the million dollar question....Is Iowa State in the money after this or are we screwed and back to being a cross country school.

I’m not worried if I am you. Keep putting up those top 30 ratings numbers and you will always be viable. Either as a top program in the Big12 or in the future if something new happens with realignment.

 

[scyclonekid]

I say one super league split into pods by geography the coast to coast super duper league.

 

[ISUCyclones2015]

OU certainly has not been impacted by aggy's move to the SEC and UT's demise has been more self inflicted than anything having to do with aggy and the SEC. aggy has had one NY6 bowl appearance since joining the SEC and that was with B12 recruits.

The moves of OU and UT to the SEC are more a function of a power play by ESPN to acquire 100% of their rights before getting into a bidding war with other networks and tech streamers. Not much of anything to do with aggy.

A&M used Big 12 recruits to make the 2020 Orange bowl?

 

[cykadelic2]

A&M used Big 12 recruits to make the 2020 Orange bowl?

No, forgot about that appearance. Was referring to the Johnny FB team that played in the Cotton Bowl which was their best team in the SEC so far.

 

[WhoISthis]

OU certainly has not been impacted by aggy's move to the SEC and UT's demise has been more self inflicted than anything having to do with aggy and the SEC. aggy has had one NY6 bowl appearance since joining the SEC and that was with B12 recruits.

The moves of OU and UT to the SEC are more a function of a power play by ESPN to acquire 100% of their rights before getting into a bidding war with other networks and tech streamers. Not much of anything to do with aggy.

Wow.

OU was impacted by the A&M move. Don’t be silly. Texas became SEC territory. See Gundy’s comments in September about Houston already being SEC country.

A&M going to the SEC was the pivot for OuT. The product differentiation it gave A&M one of the biggest catalysts over the last 10 years in OuT capitulating.

Lmao, it wouldn’t have mattered if DeLoss and Powers were still there. This is above their pay grade.

 

[cykadelic2]

Outside of those two conferences ISU has enormous value as there was only one other big12, 1 Pac12, and 2 ACC teams with better rankings. While that could make them a good expansion candidate it isnt the no brainer that OUT was for the SEC and everything I am hearing is that expansion isnt even being considered right now for the BIG. As we get closer to 2030 we will see where everything falls and how strong that handshake alliance is.

Expansion and realignment will likely be revived once the B12 reaches a settlement with OUT/ESPN/SEC/Fox and that potentially includes the B10.

 

[cykadelic2]

Wow.

OU was impacted by the A&M move. Don’t be silly. Texas became SEC territory. See Gundy’s comments in September about Houston already being SEC country.

A&M going to the SEC was the pivot for OuT. The product differentiation it gave A&M one of the biggest catalysts over the last 10 years in OuT capitulating.

Lmao, it wouldn’t have mattered if DeLoss and Powers were still there. This is above their pay grade.

LOL SEC Shill. You must have missed OU's run in recent years since aggy bolted. And like I mentioned before, UT's issues have been self inflicted and not primarily related to aggy's SEC move. The movement of OUT to the SEC is not primary driven by aggy, it is primarily being driven by ESPN's desire to own 100% of the rights to OU and UT and before their exclusive negotiating window with the B12 ended.

But you are right about Houston but it was primarily aggy turf before they moved to the SEC.

Regarding Dodds, there is no flippin way they go to the SEC if he is still AD.

 

[Gorm]

I would assume we will hear about the Pac-12s future sometime later this year. Those TV contract negotiations will take place, and stuff will leak. I'll be really curious to see the chain reaction that creates.

I don't think the Big 10 makes any moves until the Pac-12 is "settled."